Clay is his listed favourite surface. He reached a career-high No. 67 on 20 April 2026 after rebounding from a drop outside the Top 200 in 2024.
Clay is his listed favourite surface. He reached a career-high No. 56 on 4 May 2026 after climbing through the Challenger level and arrived in Bordeaux seeded No. 5.
Finished Snapshot
Sets
6-4 · 6-4
Predictions
3W · 5L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.
Burruchaga holds a slight edge with a 55% win probability, backed by a superior 2026 clay record and a recent straight-set H2H win. The match is likely to be close, with a 60% chance of exceeding 21.5 total games and a strong lean toward under 5.5 aces. Cerundolo's lefty game and return skills keep him competitive, but Burruchaga's momentum and break-point efficiency make him the marginal favorite.
The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.
Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
The model view before price and edge filtering.
Market & pick
Model
Low-conviction spots where the price does not justify the risk.
Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
May 14, 05:09
May 14, 05:13
May 14, 19:33
May 14, 05:13
Analysis updated: May 14, 05:15