Reached a career-high No. 43 on 2025-08-18 after a 2025 breakout on South American clay and a Miami hard-court breakthrough. ATP quoted him in March 2025 saying he feels more confident on clay than on hard courts.
Reached career-high No. 27 on 2023-01-16. ATP's bio lists hard as his favourite surface, and his clearest recent career lift in the requested search set was the Delray Beach title run in February 2025.
Finished Snapshot
Sets
1-6 · 1-6
Predictions
1W · 6L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli’s superior clay-court pedigree (65.4% career win rate) and strong 2026 form (wins over Berrettini, Monfils) give him a structural edge over Miomir Kecmanovic, who has struggled on clay this season (3-4) and prefers hard courts. Back Ugo Carabelli to win at 1.80 odds, with a model edge of 2.4 points, though Kecmanovic’s resilience suggests a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.
Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
The model view before price and edge filtering.
Market & pick
Model
Low-conviction spots where the price does not justify the risk.
Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
May 14, 20:09
May 14, 20:14
May 15, 13:03
May 14, 20:14
Analysis updated: May 14, 20:16