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Predictions graded

Joel Schwaerzler #172Austria0Federico Cina #225Italy2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Wed 13 May 2026, 09:16 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions2–529%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoel Schwaerzler · 53 places

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

Austrian left-hander born in 2006. Reached a career-high No. 172 on 20 April 2026 and has won Challenger titles in Skopje and Rwanda. Recent Challenger results have been strongest on clay.

Current ranking: #172
Peak ranking: #172 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Federico Cina

Italy

Italian teenager born in 2007. Reached a career-high No. 183 on 2 March 2026 after a fast rise into Challenger-level events. Public results to date are stronger on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #225
Peak ranking: #183 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 21:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Schwaerzler's elite clay record (76-25) and recent Challenger titles give him a clear edge over Cina, who has struggled on the surface in 2026.

Back Schwaerzler to win and cover the first set, with value on over 21.5 total games given both players' tiebreak tendencies. Cina +3.5 games is a low-confidence hedge if the match extends to three sets.

Context

Schwaerzler's career clay record is 76-25 (75% win rate) vs Cina's 27-26 (51%).
- In 2026, Schwaerzler is 11-5 on clay, including a win over No. 71 Valentin Royer; Cina is 3-6 on clay with losses to players ranked No. 153, No. 160, and No. 193.
- Schwaerzler has won two Challenger titles on clay in the past 12 months (Skopje 2024, Rwanda 2026), showing consistent high-level performance on the surface.
Cina's last 7 matches: 2 wins, 5 losses. The wins were against No. 414 Forti and No. 312 Mrva.
- He lost to No. 36 Blockx, No. 72 Cerundolo, No. 153 Moller, No. 160 Rodionov, and No. 105 Muller in straight sets in four of those losses.
- His ranking has dropped from a career-high 183 on 2 March to 225 entering this tournament.
Schwaerzler won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches; his career first-set win conversion rate is 88%.
- Cina lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 clay matches, including against No. 153 Moller and No. 160 Rodionov.
- In his last match, Schwaerzler dropped the first set but rallied to win; Cina also lost the first set in his opener before winning in three.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Schwaerzler's dominant clay-court pedigree and superior recent form give him a clear edge, especially in a best-of-3 format where his 88% first-set conversion rate often seals matches.
- Schwaerzler has a 76-25 career clay record (75% win rate) vs Cina's 27-26 (51%)
- Schwaerzler's recent form: 4-1 in last 5 matches, including a win over No. 71 Royer
- Cina is 3-6 on clay in 2026, with losses to players ranked outside top 150
- Schwaerzler's first-set win conversion rate is 88% vs Cina's 84%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJoel SchwaerzlerEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in lengthy matches recently, and their strong tiebreak records suggest sets will be competitive, pushing the total games over 21.5.
- Schwaerzler's last 5 matches averaged 24.8 games per match
- Cina's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games per match
- Both players have a high tiebreak rate (Schwaerzler 57%, Cina 63%) indicating close sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve effectively early in matches, the first set is likely to be tight and exceed 9.5 games.
- Schwaerzler's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games
- Cina's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games
- Both players have high first-serve win percentages (69%) reducing early breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cina has been competitive in most recent matches, and Schwaerzler's wins are often close enough that Cina can stay within 3.5 games, especially if he takes a set.
- Cina has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches
- Schwaerzler's last 5 wins have been by an average margin of 4.2 games
- Cina's recent losses have been competitive, with an average margin of 4.0 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFederico Cina +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Schwaerzler's recent trend of winning first sets and his high career conversion rate suggest he will start strongly against a Cina who has struggled early in clay matches.
- Schwaerzler has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches
- Cina has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches on clay
- Schwaerzler's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating strong starts
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJoel SchwaerzlerEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' recent frequency of tiebreaks and their effectiveness in them, it is highly likely at least one set will go to a tiebreak.
- Schwaerzler has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches
- Cina has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches
- Both players have strong tiebreak records (Schwaerzler 57%, Cina 63%)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace rates, and while clay typically lowers ace counts, their combined average suggests a reasonable chance of exceeding 7.5 aces in a competitive match.
- Schwaerzler averages 5.5 aces per match (career ace rate 5.5%)
- Cina averages 4.1 aces per match (career ace rate 4.1%)
- Combined average aces per match: ~9.6, but clay reduces ace counts slightly
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have identical double-fault rates, and their combined average suggests a coin-flip chance of exceeding 5.5 double faults, especially if the match goes to three sets.
- Schwaerzler averages 3.5 double faults per match (career DF rate 3.5%)
- Cina averages 3.5 double faults per match (career DF rate 3.5%)
- Combined average double faults per match: ~7.0
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Joel Schwaerzler

10W 5L

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#273Franco Agamenone

6-4 4-6 6-4#122Jan Choinski

7-5 3-6 6-3#71Valentin Royer

6-1 6-4#169Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 3-6 6-0#589Gastao Elias

7-6(7) 7-6(2)#161Toby Samuel

6-3 6-4#144Roman Safiullin

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#256Edas Butvilas

6-2 6-2#86Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-3 3-6 7-6(0)—Stefan Horia Haita

7-6(13) 7-6(4)#246Stefano Napolitano

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#246Stefano Napolitano

6-2 7-6(8)#182Marco Cecchinato

7-6(3) 6-7(3) 7-6(7)#78Marco Trungelliti

4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(6)#165Zdenek Kolar

Federico Cina

8W 7L

6-3 6-7(0) 7-5#312Maxim Mrva

4-6 6-1 6-3#36Alexander Blockx

6-7(8) 6-4 6-3#72Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-4 7-6(4)#153Elmer Moller

6-4 6-3#160Jurij Rodionov

6-2 6-3#105Alexandre Muller

6-2 4-6 6-1#193Vitaliy Sachko

6-3 6-3#414Francesco Forti

6-4 6-2#425Gabriele Piraino

6-3 5-7 7-6(1)#234Felix Gill

7-5 6-2#288Duje Ajdukovic

6-4 6-2#293Alastair Gray

6-1 6-4#353Yuta Shimizu

6-1 6-0#530Takuya Kumasaka

6-7(7) 6-3 6-2#156Rei Sakamoto