Oksana Selekhmeteva #84Russia11 – 2Rebeka Masarova #160Switzerland2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Given the expected closeness of the match, Masarova is likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap, as most of her recent matches have been decided by narrow margins.

• Masarova's last 15 matches show an average game differential of -0.3, with 12 of 15 matches within a 3.5-game margin.
• Selekhmeteva's average game differential in her last 15 matches is +0.1, with 11 of 15 matches within a 3.5-game margin.
• The H2H match in 2021 was decided by a 4-game margin, but both players are now more evenly matched.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

The combination of both players' recent match lengths and their comparable break point stats points to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Selekhmeteva's last 15 matches averaged 21.9 total games, with 9 of 15 going over 21.5.
• Masarova's last 15 matches averaged 22.3 total games, with 8 of 15 going over 21.5.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (Selekhmeteva 54.7%, Masarova 57.5%) and convert rates (48.8% vs 46.4%), suggesting competitive games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

With neither player having an overpowering serve, the first set is likely to be closely contested, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• In Selekhmeteva's last 15 matches, the first set averaged 9.7 games, with 10 of 15 going over 9.5.
• In Masarova's last 15 matches, the first set averaged 9.3 games, with 8 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 61-66%, indicating they can hold serve but are not dominant.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of the match and both players' resilience suggest the second set could also be tight, favoring over 9.5 games.

• Selekhmeteva's second sets in her last 15 matches averaged 9.4 games, with 9 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Masarova's second sets averaged 9.1 games, with 7 of 15 going over 9.5.
• Both players have shown the ability to bounce back after losing the first set, extending second sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players having high double fault rates, the total double faults are likely to exceed 7.5, especially if the match goes to three sets.

• Both players have a 5.7% double fault rate, averaging about 3.5 double faults per match each.
• In their last 15 matches, Selekhmeteva averaged 3.2 double faults, and Masarova averaged 3.8.
• Combined, they average 7.0 double faults per match, with 10 of 15 matches for each player going over 3.5 individually.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While neither player is a big server, Masarova's ace rate and the potential for a three-set match could see the total aces exceed 5.5.

• Masarova has a 5.5% ace rate, averaging about 3.5 aces per match in her last 15.
• Selekhmeteva has a 1.9% ace rate, averaging about 1.2 aces per match.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest around 4.7 aces per match, but Masarova's higher ace potential could push the total over 5.5 in a longer match.