Alice Tubello vs Elizara Yaneva: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Tubello's dominant clay form (21-4 in 2026) and higher career clay volume give her a clear surface-fit edge over Yaneva, who has limited clay success.
- Tubello is 21-4 on clay in 2026, including a win over No. 7 seed Rakotomanga Rajaonah in Istanbul R32.
- Yaneva is 4-2 on clay in 2026, with losses to Semenistaja (rank 112) and Oktiabreva (rank 299).
- Tubello has won 12 of her last 15 matches, with 10 of those wins on clay.
- Career clay win percentage: Tubello 164 wins vs Yaneva 25 wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlice TubelloEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Yaneva's competitive losses and Tubello's occasional close matches suggest Yaneva can keep the game margin within 4.5 games, even in a losing effort.
- Yaneva's last 5 losses were by an average of 5.2 games, but all were against higher-ranked opponents.
- Tubello's last 5 wins were by an average of 6.4 games, but 3 of those were against opponents ranked outside the top 250.
- Yaneva has covered a +4.5 game handicap in 12 of her last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostElizara Yaneva +4.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
With both players showing solid return stats and Tubello's recent matches trending toward longer contests, a total over 20.5 games is likely in a best-of-3 clay match.
- Tubello's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games.
- Yaneva's last 5 matches averaged 19.6 total games, but 3 of those were straight-set wins over lower-ranked opponents.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 51%, indicating competitive return games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' serve hold rates and recent first-set game counts, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Tubello's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games.
- Yaneva's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 60%, suggesting holds are common.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.35
The read
Tubello's strong recent first-set record and higher career first-set win conversion suggest she is likely to start fast on her preferred clay surface.
- Tubello has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches.
- Yaneva has won the first set in 9 of her last 15 matches.
- Tubello's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, Yaneva's is 83%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlice TubelloEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 4.20
The read
Tubello's ability to close matches in straight sets on clay, combined with Yaneva's tendency to lose in straights against stronger opponents, supports a 2-0 outcome.
- Tubello has won in straight sets in 11 of her last 15 wins.
- Yaneva has lost in straight sets in 6 of her last 8 losses.
- Tubello's first-set win conversion is 89%, often leading to straight-set wins.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAlice Tubello 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, especially on clay, making under 5.5 total aces highly probable.
- Tubello's ace rate is 1.5% (339 aces in 354 matches).
- Yaneva's ace rate is 2.0% (131 aces in 100 matches).
- Combined, they average fewer than 4 aces per match on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given their double-fault rates and the pressure of clay rallies, the match is likely to see over 7.5 double faults.
- Tubello's double-fault rate is 4.2% (931 DFs in 354 matches).
- Yaneva's double-fault rate is 5.0% (320 DFs in 100 matches).
- In a typical 22-game match, they would combine for ~8 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Alice Tubello #256France2Elizara Yaneva #2240

Player Profiles

Alice Tubello

Elizara Yaneva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alice Tubello

Alice Tubello

Elizara Yaneva +4.5

Over 20.5

Over 9.5

Alice Tubello 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Alice Tubello

Elizara Yaneva