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Patrick Kypson - Nikoloz Basilashvili

MadridFinished

Patrick Kypson

#90

Nikoloz Basilashvili

#120

Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 14:27

Quick Take

Small pre-match lean to Basilashvili, but the cleaner value is in derivatives: Basilashvili 2-1 and tiebreak in match Yes. Main winner and most totals are priced close to fair, so stake sizing should stay conservative.

Tiebreak in MatchYes0.53%+7.5pp
Game HandicapNikoloz Basilashvili0.52%+2.0pp
Set BettingNikoloz Basilashvili 2-10.31%+6.0pp

Context Signals

RotoWire reports Basilashvili's February 26, 2026 Dubai qualifying match as a loss on return from injury (vs Shevchenko, 7-6 6-4).

ATP Tour describes Madrid at about 655m altitude and labels it the fastest clay-court environment on tour, with the ball moving through court quicker than Monte-Carlo/Rome.

On February 24, 2026, Patrick Kypson beat second seed Alex de Minaur 6-1, 6-7(4), 7-6(4) in Acapulco, his biggest ATP-level win noted by ATP Tour.

H2H record 0-1 across 1 meetings.

  • β€’0-1 over 1 matches

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Nikoloz Basilashvili @ 1.85:No actionable value: implied probability is 54.1% and predictor estimate is 54%, effectively fair price after margin/noise.
Total Games Over 21.5 @ 1.60 / Under 21.5 @ 2.20:Predictor leans Over 21.5 at 52%, but market needs 62.5% at 1.60; opposite side is only a thin inferred edge and too sensitive to one tiebreak set.
Set 1 Winner Nikoloz Basilashvili @ 1.80:Only a marginal edge (56% model vs 55.6% implied) and counter-signal from Kypson's stronger first-set conversion (89) keeps this below execution threshold.
This Madrid qualifier is tighter than the rankings suggest. Patrick Kypson is now at a career-high No. 90 and arrives with a strong confidence marker from his February win over Alex de Minaur, but Nikoloz Basilashvili still carries the slightly stronger clay-volume base and won their most recent head-to-head 6-3 6-1 in March. The direct matchup details matter here: in that March meeting, Basilashvili dominated first-serve points and return points, which supports a narrow match-winner lean to the Georgian side.

Recent Form

Patrick Kypson

5W 5L
W6-2 6-2#358 Moise KouameApr 20, 2026
L6-4 6-4#83 Sebastian OfnerApr 12, 2026
W6-1 6-4#139 Arthur GeaApr 11, 2026
L4-6 6-4 6-3#56 Alexei PopyrinMar 31, 2026
L6-3 6-1#120 Nikoloz BasilashviliMar 16, 2026
L3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#102 Daniel Merida AguilarMar 2, 2026
L6-4 6-4#32 Brandon NakashimaFeb 25, 2026
W6-1 6-7(4) 7-6(4)#8 Alex De MinaurFeb 23, 2026
W6-3 6-0#122 Chak Lam Coleman WongFeb 22, 2026
W7-6(3) 6-0#256 Stefan KozlovFeb 21, 2026

Nikoloz Basilashvili

6W 4L
W7-6(4) 6-4#141 Stefano TravagliaApr 20, 2026
L2-6 7-6(9) 6-4#48 Ethan QuinnApr 11, 2026
L7-5 6-0#85 Cristian GarinApr 5, 2026
W6-3 6-3#81 Jan-Lennard StruffApr 4, 2026
L6-4 6-2#87 Dino PrizmicMar 31, 2026
W6-4 0-6 6-3#162 Jurij RodionovMar 30, 2026
W6-4 7-5#287 Daniel MichalskiMar 30, 2026
L7-6(7) 6-3#45 Mariano NavoneMar 19, 2026
W6-2 6-1#108 Sho ShimabukuroMar 17, 2026
W6-3 6-1#90 Patrick KypsonMar 16, 2026

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)
L6-3 6-1Patrick Kypson#90vNikoloz Basilashvili#120Mar 16, 2026
1 total meetings
Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete
StatsAvailable

Apr 21, 06:51

IntelAvailable

Apr 21, 07:01

OddsAvailable

Apr 21, 17:03

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 21, 07:01

Analysis updated: Apr 21, 07:09