Henrique Rocha - Jan Choinski
Henrique Rocha
#126
Jan Choinski
#117
Finished Snapshot
Sets
7-6 · 6-7 · 7-5
Predictions
2W · 5L · 0P
Edges
0W · 5L · 0P
Quick Take
Rocha's dominant 15-5 clay form and Choinski's 1-5 recent record create underpriced short-match scenarios: **Under 21.5 games at 2.20** (9.5pt edge) and **Rocha 2-0 at 2.30** (2pt edge) are the primary plays on fast Madrid altitude clay where early set breaks will dominate.
Context Signals
Rocha's significantly better 2026 clay form and recent match sharpness give him a clear edge over a struggling Choinski who has won just 2 of 7 clay matches this year.
With both players converting breaks at high rates and Choinski struggling on serve in recent matches, decisive breaks are more likely than hold-fests leading to tiebreaks, despite Madrid's altitude favoring servers slightly.
Choinski's alarming tendency to drop opening sets recently combined with Rocha's strong first-set record and superior current form points to Rocha taking set 1.
Both players' recent results have trended toward straight-set outcomes, and the form gap between them suggests this match is unlikely to go the distance.
Betting Edges
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Recent Form
Henrique Rocha
6W 4LJan Choinski
4W 6LHead-to-Head
1-1 (2 meetings)Data Coverage (dev)
Data Coverage
Apr 19, 19:31
Apr 19, 19:33
Apr 20, 17:22
Apr 19, 19:33
Analysis updated: Apr 19, 19:38