Miguel Damas - Mika Brunold

Rome - ItalyFinished

Miguel Damas

#273

Mika Brunold

#385

Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 11:28

Finished Snapshot

FT2-0

FinishedSettled

Sets

6-3 · 6-3

Predictions

7W · 0L · 0P

Edges

3W · 0L · 0P

Quick Take

Damas is a 67-72% favorite against Brunold due to 112-ranking advantage, 203 career clay wins (vs Brunold's 68), and prior 6-3 6-1 H2H clay victory, but his Madrid retirement (April 7) creates fitness uncertainty that limits edge on matchWinner 1.60 to +4.5 to +9.5 points—managea...

Set 1 WinnerMiguel Damas68%+5.5pp

Match WinnerMiguel Damas0.72%+9.5pp

Match WinnerMiguel Damas0.67%+4.5pp

Context Signals

Damas ranked #273 vs Brunold #385 — 112 ranking places higher

HIGHMixed

Damas holds clear advantages in ranking, clay experience, and head-to-head on this surface. The retirement concern introduces some uncertainty, but the skill and surface gap is substantial enough to project Damas as a clear favorite.

Damas won the first set 6-3 in their H2H on clay

HIGHMixed

Damas's strong first-set conversion rate and the surface transition challenge for Brunold (indoor hard to outdoor clay) suggest Damas will likely establish control early in the match.

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Total Games Under 21.5:No odds provided; cannot assess market efficiency. Prediction is MEDIUM confidence (55%) and relies heavily on extrapolating the prior 16-game H2H, which is a single data point. Rome's conditions and Brunold's form volatility make the total too noisy without pricing.

Game Handicap Damas -3.5:No odds provided; cannot evaluate value. MEDIUM confidence (58%) prediction based on prior +8 game margin, but retirement concern and surface adjustment risk make cover probability too uncertain to project without market odds to validate edge.

Total Sets 2 Sets:Model confidence (58%) matches implied probability (50–52% typical setter odds); no significant edge exists. Retirement fitness uncertainty inflates 3-set probability unpredictably.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Miguel Damas enters Rome as a heavy favorite over Mika Brunold despite a troubling recent retirement at Madrid (April 7, losing 1-6 to Jarry before withdrawing). The 112-ranking advantage (Damas #273 vs Brunold #385) sits atop a massive clay pedigree gap: Damas boasts 203 career clay wins and a dominant 6-3 6-1 victory over Brunold on clay just seven months ago (Targu Mures, September 2025), while Brunold has played zero clay matches in 2026, competing exclusively on indoor hard courts and carpet.

Recent Form

Miguel Damas

4W 6L

L6-1 ret.#155 Nicolas JarryApr 7, 2026

L6-2 4-6 6-2#282 Daniel RinconApr 3, 2026

W3-6 6-3 6-1#298 Abedallah ShelbayhApr 1, 2026

L6-3 6-1#56 Daniel AltmaierMar 24, 2026

L4-6 6-4 6-4#117 Jan ChoinskiMar 16, 2026

L6-4 7-5#278 Thiago Moura MonteiroMar 5, 2026

W7-6(8) 6-4#225 Alvaro Guillen MezaMar 4, 2026

L1-6 6-3 6-0#178 Facundo Diaz AcostaMar 1, 2026

W6-4 4-6 7-5#258 Diego DeduraFeb 28, 2026

W6-2 6-3#232 Gianluca CadenassoFeb 27, 2026

Mika Brunold

6W 4L

L7-6(3) 6-1— Leo LagarrigueMar 25, 2026

L6-3 6-4#320 Matteo MartineauMar 20, 2026

W6-2 6-0#420 Lucas PoullainMar 19, 2026

W7-6(4) 6-4#542 Mae MaligeMar 17, 2026

L7-6(2) 6-2#302 Dominic StrickerMar 7, 2026

W6-3 4-6 6-1#648 Mika PetkovicMar 6, 2026

W6-3 7-5— Nicola SennMar 5, 2026

W6-2 6-2#753 Kai WehneltMar 4, 2026

L7-5 6-3#144 Zsombor PirosFeb 28, 2026

W6-4 6-4#340 Marc-Andrea HueslerFeb 27, 2026

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 6-1Miguel Damas#273vMika Brunold#385Sep 18, 2025

1 total meetings

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 18, 21:11

IntelAvailable

Apr 18, 21:13

OddsAvailable

Apr 19, 12:33

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 18, 21:13

Analysis updated: Apr 18, 21:45