Martin Krumich - Gianmarco Ferrari

Rome - ItalyLive

Martin Krumich

#317

Gianmarco Ferrari

#484

Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 08:18

Quick Take

Krumich favored with 72% true win probability, but the -140 match winner line at 80% implied is slight overvalue. Best angle: Krumich 2-0 at 1.73 offers 9.8 points of edge, with market overstating straight-sets likelihood given Krumich's recent 3-set inconsistency and Ferrari's v...

Match WinnerMartin Krumich72%-1.4pp

Set 1 WinnerMartin Krumich0.68%+2.3pp

Set BettingMartin Krumich 2-00.48%+9.8pp

Context Signals

Krumich ranked 317 vs Ferrari ranked 484 — significant ranking advantage

HIGHStats

Krumich holds a clear ranking edge, won the only H2H on this surface, and Ferrari's 2026 form is extremely poor with repeated losses to lower-ranked opponents.

•Krumich ranked 317 vs Ferrari ranked 484 — significant ranking advantage
•Krumich won previous H2H 6-4 6-4 on clay with 75% break point conversion vs Ferrari's 17%
•Ferrari has a dismal 2-8 record in 2026 including losses to players ranked 575, 648, and 882

Krumich won the first set 6-4 in the H2H meeting

HIGHStats

Krumich's high first-set win conversion rate combined with Ferrari's pattern of dropping opening sets strongly favors Krumich in set 1.

•Krumich won the first set 6-4 in the H2H meeting
•Krumich has 87% first set win conversion rate
•Ferrari frequently drops the first set — lost set 1 in 7 of last 10 matches

H2H match had no tiebreaks (6-4 6-4)

MEDIUMStats

With both players having high break point conversion rates on clay and the previous H2H producing no tiebreaks, service holds are unlikely to be consistent enough for tiebreaks.

•H2H match had no tiebreaks (6-4 6-4)
•Both players have break point conversion rates around 44%, suggesting frequent breaks of serve
•Ferrari's tiebreak win rate is only 48%, and her recent matches rarely feature tiebreaks

Krumich won H2H 6-4 6-4 in straight sets on clay

MEDIUMStats

Krumich is the stronger player and the H2H suggests straight sets is likely, but Krumich's recent tendency for 3-setters and Ferrari's ability to steal sets occasionally makes this moderate confidence.

•Krumich won H2H 6-4 6-4 in straight sets on clay
•Ferrari lost in straight sets in 6 of his last 10 matches
•Krumich's first set win conversion rate is 87% career

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Total Games Odd/Even at 1.85 each:No directional Under/Over line available; binary Odd/Even is noise without specific game threshold. Cannot validate the 52% Under 21.5 model.

Game Handicap Not offered in available markets:Game handicap is not listed. Set Betting (Krumich 2-0 at 1.73) is a poor proxy and conflates margin with set outcome.

Total Games Even/Odd @ 1.85:No serve/break point statistics or game distribution data available; even odds suggest market uncertainty with no predictive edge identifiable.

Martin Krumich enters as a heavy favorite against Gianmarco Ferrari on Rome's outdoor clay, backed by a commanding 167-ranking gap (317 vs. 484) and a decisive 6-4 6-4 H2H victory on this exact surface. Krumich's 75% break-point conversion in their prior meeting dwarfed Ferrari's 17%, establishing clear dominance in the crucial moments where clay courts reward patient baseline play.

Recent Form

Martin Krumich

5W 5L

L6-4 5-7 6-4#231 Tom GentzschApr 12, 2026

L7-6(4) 1-6 7-6(2)#557 Jacopo VasamiApr 5, 2026

L7-6(5) 0-6 6-3#228 Felix GillApr 4, 2026

W7-5 6-3#160 Ugo BlanchetApr 3, 2026

W3-6 6-2 6-1#303 Maxim MrvaApr 2, 2026

W6-1 6-2#455 Radu AlbotMar 30, 2026

W6-3 6-4— Francesco Giuseppe ColasantoMar 29, 2026

L6-3 7-5#228 Felix GillMar 23, 2026

L3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#205 Matej DodigMar 18, 2026

W7-5 6-4#772 John SperleMar 17, 2026

Gianmarco Ferrari

2W 8L

L6-2 2-6 6-2#575 Juan Cruz Martin ManzanoApr 17, 2026

W6-1 7-5#397 Tommaso CompagnucciApr 15, 2026

W6-0 6-1— Edoardo ZanadaApr 14, 2026

L6-4 1-6 6-1#648 Mika PetkovicApr 6, 2026

L6-3 6-3#511 Maxime ChazalMar 29, 2026

L2-6 6-4 6-2#882 Mariano TammaroMar 22, 2026

L6-2 6-3#432 Sebastian SorgerFeb 18, 2026

L6-3 6-4#314 Petr BrunclikFeb 3, 2026

L6-3 7-6(2)#360 Buvaysar GadamauriJan 26, 2026

L6-4 6-3#563 Ergi KirkinJan 18, 2026

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-4Martin Krumich#317vGianmarco Ferrari#484Oct 24, 2025

1 total meetings

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 18, 21:00

IntelAvailable

Apr 18, 21:02

OddsAvailable

Apr 19, 10:03

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 18, 21:02

Analysis updated: Apr 18, 21:38