Lorenzo Carboni - Norbert Gombos

Rome - ItalyFinished

Lorenzo Carboni

#470

Norbert Gombos

#341

Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 12:26

Finished Snapshot

FT2-1

FinishedSettled

Sets

6-4 · 3-6 · 6-3

Predictions

5W · 2L · 0P

Edges

3W · 0L · 0P

Quick Take

Carboni favored on clay form (9-4, +7 recent wins) vs. Gombos's limited 2026 sample (2-2 clay); best edge is Carboni 2-1 at 4.50 (28% true prob, 7.5pt edge) leveraging his 69% clay win rate and 58% deciding-set conversion, though conservative position warranted given both players...

Match WinnerLorenzo Carboni0.55%+2.4pp

Total Sets3 sets0.52%+26.0pp

Set BettingCarboni 2-10.3%+7.5pp

Context Signals

Carboni has a 4.2% double fault rate with 500 career double faults in 205 matches...

MEDIUMMixed

Both players have above-average double fault rates, and a projected competitive 3-set match with extended rallies and pressure points should push combined double faults over 5.5.

Carboni's recent matches average roughly 25-27 total games, with many going to 3...

MEDIUMMixed

Gombos's serve strength should hold games effectively while Carboni's return game creates enough pressure for competitive sets, pushing total games higher.

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Total Games Odd/Even 1.85:Available market shows only Odd/Even binary selection (1.85 both sides) without a specific total line (e.g., Over/Under 21.5). Prediction targets Over 21.5, but offered odds structure prevents translation into direct edge; data insufficient for defensible recommendation without exact line odds.

Set 1 Winner 1.90 / 1.80:First-set markets are typically volatile for qualifiers with limited h2h history. No h2h matches exist between these players; first-set outcomes depend heavily on serve-hold sequences in early game, making edge detection unreliable without specific first-set data patterns.

Set Betting 2.75–4.50:Set-score betting is dependent on match winner plus set-length distribution (tiebreak frequency). Without tight predictive confidence on both margins of victory and set structure, set-betting odds are inefficient to price reliably; avoid unless modeling both factors separately.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Lorenzo Carboni enters this Rome clay showdown as the form favorite despite ranking disadvantage, boasting a dominant 9-4 (69%) clay record in 2026 compared to Norbert Gombos's modest 2-2 (50%). Carboni has won 7 of his last 10 matches and completed four consecutive clay wins, while Gombos has dropped six of his last ten with minimal match volume this season—only two completed 2026 singles matches documented. On clay, Carboni's superior return game (44% return points won vs. 39%, 45.2% break conversion vs.

Recent Form

Lorenzo Carboni

7W 3L

L2-6 6-2 6-4#575 Juan Cruz Martin ManzanoApr 17, 2026

W4-6 6-4 6-0#496 Francesco FortiApr 17, 2026

W5-7 6-2 7-6(7)— Niels McdonaldApr 15, 2026

W6-3 6-2— Sebastiano CocolaApr 14, 2026

L2-6 6-3 7-6(3)#431 Andrey ChepelevApr 9, 2026

W7-5 6-2— Dakotah BoboApr 8, 2026

W7-6(2) 3-1 ret.— Edoardo Cherie LigniereApr 7, 2026

W6-1 6-4— Nicolo ToffaninApr 6, 2026

W6-4 6-3— Federico ValleApr 5, 2026

L6-1 6-3#496 Francesco FortiMar 30, 2026

Norbert Gombos

4W 6L

L6-3 6-1#195 Timofey SkatovApr 7, 2026

W7-6(3) 7-6(8)#370 Carlo Alberto CaniatoApr 6, 2026

W6-7(4) 7-6(5) 6-2#439 Eero VasaApr 5, 2026

L3-6 6-2 6-1#268 Ivan GakhovApr 1, 2026

L6-4 6-3#420 Lucas PoullainFeb 24, 2026

L7-6(1) 7-6(6)#26 Arthur RinderknechFeb 7, 2026

L6-4 6-4#426 Laurent LokoliJan 26, 2026

L6-3 6-7(8) 6-4#176 Clement ChidekhJan 16, 2026

W6-2 3-6 6-1#250 Liam BroadyJan 15, 2026

W6-3 7-6(5)#223 Harry WendelkenJan 14, 2026

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 18, 21:21

IntelAvailable

Apr 18, 21:23

OddsAvailable

Apr 19, 14:33

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 18, 21:23

Analysis updated: Apr 19, 06:06