Roman Safiullin - Henrique Rocha

Oeiras - PortugalFinished

Roman Safiullin

#226

Henrique Rocha

#126

Saturday, April 18, 2026 at 12:15

Finished Snapshot

FT2-0

FinishedSettled

Sets

6-4 · 6-4

Predictions

1W · 6L · 0P

Edges

1W · 2L · 0P

Quick Take

Rocha's 15-4 clay form and first-set dominance this week favor him as match favorite (58%), but Safiullin's 87% career first-set-to-match conversion and 5-match unbeaten Oeiras streak make him undervalued at 2.10 odds; three sets is highly likely (65%) with Rocha 2-1 the most pro...

Set 1 WinnerHenrique Rocha0.62%+4.2pp

Match WinnerRoman Safiullin0.54%+6.4pp

Set BettingHenrique Rocha 2-10.32%+7.0pp

Context Signals

Safiullin's 5 Oeiras matches show he stays competitive even when losing sets

HIGHMixed

Given the expected competitiveness of this semi-final and the high likelihood of three sets, Safiullin should stay within 3.5 games regardless of the outcome.

Safiullin's 5 Oeiras matches averaged 30.4 total games (all went 3 sets)

HIGHMixed

The high likelihood of a three-set match combined with both players' competitive form makes over 22.5 games highly probable; even a straight-set outcome with tiebreaks would approach this threshold.

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Henrique Rocha 1.65:Model estimates 58% probability but implied odds (1.65) price Rocha at 60.6% – market is actually *pricing him higher* than model edge justifies, creating negative value despite strong ranking/form fundamentals.

Total Games Over 22.5:Prediction references 'Over 22.5' with 72% model confidence, but only Odd/Even odds (1.85 each) are published; cannot evaluate the specific line without actual offered odds for the 22.5 threshold.

Game Handicap Safiullin +3.5:Market not listed in available odds; cannot assess despite HIGH confidence prediction in source data.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Roman Safiullin enters this Open de Oeiras semifinal against 7th-seed Henrique Rocha as a significant ranking underdog (226 vs 126), but the Oeiras clay stage has been kind to the Russian survivor. Safiullin arrives on a 5-match unbeaten streak at this tournament with all five matches decided in three sets, demonstrating exceptional comeback resilience despite a troubling pattern: he has lost the opening set in four of his five matches (80%).

Recent Form

Roman Safiullin

8W 2L

W4-6 6-3 7-6(1)#142 Jaime FariaApr 17, 2026

W7-5 3-6 6-2#100 Luca Van AsscheApr 16, 2026

W4-6 7-6(5) 3-1 ret.#228 Felix GillApr 14, 2026

W4-6 6-1 6-4#592 Tiago TorresApr 13, 2026

W4-6 6-2 6-1— Joao SilvaApr 12, 2026

L6-3 6-4#173 Joel SchwaerzlerApr 9, 2026

W6-4 7-5#258 Diego DeduraApr 7, 2026

L6-4 7-5#151 Pablo Llamas RuizMar 28, 2026

W6-4 6-1#257 Max HoukesMar 27, 2026

W6-2 6-3#117 Jan ChoinskiMar 26, 2026

Henrique Rocha

7W 3L

W6-0 7-5#151 Pablo Llamas RuizApr 17, 2026

W7-6(7) 7-6(4)#161 Rei SakamotoApr 16, 2026

W7-6(3) 7-6(4)#231 Tom GentzschApr 14, 2026

L7-6(5) 6-2#79 Marco TrungellitiMar 31, 2026

W6-1 6-2#139 Nicolai Budkov KjaerMar 30, 2026

W6-3 6-2#386 David Jorda SanchisMar 29, 2026

L7-5 7-5#672 Conner Huertas Del PinoMar 18, 2026

L6-4 6-4#198 Genaro Alberto OlivieriMar 15, 2026

W6-1 6-2#229 Pedro Boscardin DiasMar 14, 2026

W7-6(2) 3-6 6-3#294 Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoMar 13, 2026

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 17, 21:39

IntelAvailable

Apr 17, 21:41

OddsAvailable

Apr 18, 14:03

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 17, 21:41

Analysis updated: Apr 17, 21:46