Andrey Rublev - Hamad Medjedovic

BarcelonaFinished

Andrey Rublev

#15

Hamad Medjedovic

#88

Saturday, April 18, 2026 at 11:35

Finished Snapshot

FT2-1

FinishedSettled

Sets

3-6 · 6-2 · 6-2

Predictions

3W · 4L · 0P

Edges

1W · 4L · 0P

Quick Take

Rublev favored but not at sufficient odds; best value lies in Set 1 Winner (Rublev 1.60) and Under 20.5 Total Games, exploiting his dominant Barcelona pattern (7 games lost per set) against a dangerous clay specialist in Medjedovic whose tournament upset of De Minaur signals real...

Total GamesUnder 20.548%+1.6pp

Total Sets3 sets45%-0.5pp

Set 1 WinnerAndrey Rublev0.58%+4.5pp

Context Signals

totalGames — Under 20.5

HIGHMixed

Rublev's Barcelona run shows he consistently limits opponents to 5–7 games per set (avg 7 lost per match across 3 wins), and even in his tightest win this week (6-4 6-3 vs Machac), he held to 12 total games won; Under 20.5 reflects this pattern better than market's 40% probability.

set1Winner — Andrey Rublev

MEDIUMMixed

Rublev's 3-0 first-set sweep this Barcelona week (all 6-4 or better) combined with 87% career first-set conversion provides edge over Medjedovic's 72.5% first-serve win rate and tiebreak dependency.

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Andrey Rublev 1.57:Model 60% probability implies fair odds ~1.67; offered 1.57 is materially worse than fair value. Rublev is favored but not at sufficient odds to justify the edge.

Total Games Over 21.5 at 1.55:Model 58% implies fair odds ~1.72; offered 1.55 represents negative expected value. Despite Medjedovic's quality, Rublev's dominance and fresh legs make Over 21.5 overpriced by the market.

Game Handicap Hamad Medjedovic +4.5:No odds available in provided markets. Cannot execute this bet despite model edge; market does not offer game handicap pricing for this match.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

**The Matchup: Experience vs. Momentum on Slow Clay** Andrey Rublev enters the Barcelona semifinal as the clear favorite—seeded No. 5, ranked 15 spots higher than Hamad Medjedovic (No. 81), and riding a dominant 3-0 Barcelona run in which he's surrendered just 21 games across three matches. However, Medjedovic's tournament narrative threatens to disrupt that script. The 26-year-old Bosnian has won five matches this week, including an upset victory over Alex De Minaur (No. 7), and boasts a remarkable 10-1 clay-court record in 2026—a sign that he's peaked precisely when it matters most.

Recent Form

Andrey Rublev

6W 4L

W6-4 6-3#47 Tomas MachacApr 17, 2026

W6-2 6-3#66 Lorenzo SonegoApr 16, 2026

W6-4 7-5#44 Mariano NavoneApr 14, 2026

L6-4 6-1#40 Zizou BergsApr 8, 2026

W6-4 1-6 6-1#52 Nuno BorgesApr 6, 2026

L6-7(5) 6-2 6-4#45 Alejandro TabiloMar 21, 2026

L6-7(4) 7-6(1) 6-3#37 Gabriel DialloMar 7, 2026

L7-5 7-6(6)#32 Tallon GriekspoorFeb 27, 2026

W6-2 6-4#26 Arthur RinderknechFeb 26, 2026

W6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#34 Ugo HumbertFeb 25, 2026

Hamad Medjedovic

9W 1L

W7-6(6) 6-2#52 Nuno BorgesApr 17, 2026

W6-3 6-4#7 Alex De MinaurApr 15, 2026

W7-5 6-4#79 Marco TrungellitiApr 13, 2026

W6-2 3-6 7-6(6)#90 Quentin HalysApr 12, 2026

W7-6(13) 6-4#122 Vilius GaubasApr 11, 2026

L6-7(4) 7-5 6-2#77 Vit KoprivaApr 1, 2026

W6-2 6-4#56 Daniel AltmaierMar 29, 2026

W7-5 6-1#208 Vitaliy SachkoMar 28, 2026

W6-2 6-2#95 Alexandre MullerMar 27, 2026

W6-4 3-6 7-5#212 Stefanos SakellaridisMar 26, 2026

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 17, 13:45

IntelAvailable

Apr 17, 13:48

OddsAvailable

Apr 18, 13:03

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 17, 13:48

Analysis updated: Apr 17, 13:52