Tomas Machac - Andrey Rublev

BarcelonaFinished

Tomas Machac

#47

Andrey Rublev

#15

Friday, April 17, 2026 at 11:09

Finished Snapshot

FT0-2

FinishedSettled

Sets

4-6 · 3-6

Predictions

4W · 3L · 0P

Edges

1W · 1L · 0P

Quick Take

Rublev is fairly priced at -265 on the back of superior ranking, ATP 500 dominance, and excellent Barcelona clay form, but Over 21.5 Games and Rublev First Set Winner offer better value given Machac's three-set tendency and recent comeback momentum on this surface.

Match WinnerAndrey Rublev0.7%+4.6pp

Total GamesOver 21.5 Games0.6%+0.0pp

Context Signals

totalGames — Over 21.5 Games

HIGHMixed

Machac's elevated game count average (25.0 last 5) and propensity for 3-set matches slightly favors overs, though Rublev's current momentum and superior technical play could compress set duration.

matchWinner — Andrey Rublev

MEDIUMMixed

Rublev's clay dominance and superior deciding-set record (58% vs Machac's 52%) combined with Machac's inconsistency across clay records (5-2 in 2026 vs Rublev's 3-1) creates sustainable edge despite compressed odds.

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Rublev -265 (1.53):Model probability (62%) does not exceed implied probability (65.4%); Rublev is fairly priced or slightly undervalued by the model given his ranking advantage, ATP 500 dominance, and current Barcelona form. Machac's H2H upset (2024 hard court) and comeback pattern create sufficient uncertainty that the 3.4-point gap is defensible market pricing, not a betting edge.

Match Winner Machac +150 (2.50):Model does not project Machac to win, and at 40% implied vs. no positive model edge, the odds do not compensate for the underdog status. While his H2H win and upset capability are noted, Rublev's current form and ranking gap justify shorter odds.

Set Betting Andrey Rublev 2-1:Prediction confidence marked MEDIUM (30% est. prob.) conflicts with matchup fundamentals; Rublev's clean 2-set wins on clay this week suggest 2-0 scoreline is underpriced relative to 2-1. Market lacks clear edge threshold.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Andrey Rublev enters as a clear favorite, backed by substantial structural advantages: a ranking edge (#15 vs #47), dominant ATP 500 pedigree (32-15 record since 2023), and superior 2026 clay form (3-1 record). The Russian's Barcelona performance has been immaculate—consecutive 2-set wins over Sonego and Navone with first-set dominance—suggesting he's operating at peak efficiency on this surface. Rublev's 64% career clay win rate and 58% deciding-set conversion record provide the tactical foundation for a strong favorite narrative.

Recent Form

Tomas Machac

4W 6L

W2-6 6-4 6-1#57 Sebastian BaezApr 14, 2026

L6-1 6-7(3) 6-3#1 Jannik SinnerApr 9, 2026

W7-6(2) 6-3#19 Francisco CerundoloApr 8, 2026

W6-4 1-6 6-3#56 Daniel AltmaierApr 6, 2026

L6-4 4-6 6-3#55 Rafael JodarApr 2, 2026

L6-0 1-6 6-4#31 Corentin MoutetMar 21, 2026

W2-6 6-4 6-1#112 Emilio NavaMar 19, 2026

L6-1 6-4#1 Jannik SinnerFeb 16, 2026

L6-3 4-5 ret.#138 Arthur GeaFeb 4, 2026

L5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2#9 Lorenzo MusettiJan 24, 2026

Andrey Rublev

6W 4L

W6-2 6-3#66 Lorenzo SonegoApr 16, 2026

W6-4 7-5#44 Mariano NavoneApr 14, 2026

L6-4 6-1#40 Zizou BergsApr 8, 2026

W6-4 1-6 6-1#52 Nuno BorgesApr 6, 2026

L6-7(5) 6-2 6-4#45 Alejandro TabiloMar 21, 2026

L6-7(4) 7-6(1) 6-3#37 Gabriel DialloMar 7, 2026

L7-5 7-6(6)#32 Tallon GriekspoorFeb 27, 2026

W6-2 6-4#26 Arthur RinderknechFeb 26, 2026

W6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#34 Ugo HumbertFeb 25, 2026

W6-3 6-4#76 Valentin RoyerFeb 24, 2026

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-4Tomas Machac#47vAndrey Rublev#15Mar 22, 2024

1 total meetings

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 16, 15:58

IntelAvailable

Apr 16, 17:28

OddsAvailable

Apr 17, 12:03

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 16, 17:28

Analysis updated: Apr 16, 17:33