Liudmila Samsonova - Coco Gauff

StuttgartFinished

Liudmila Samsonova

#21

Cori Gauff

Thursday, April 16, 2026 at 16:45

Quick Take

Gauff dominates the 6-0 H2H with increasingly lopsided scorelines (6-1 6-1 at Miami just weeks ago), arrives as defending Roland Garros champion in peak clay form, and faces a Samsonova who just snapped a six-match losing streak and is structurally weak on this surface.

Total GamesUnder 19.558%+2.4pts

Context Signals

Gauff dominates H2H 6-0

HIGHHead-to-head

Cori Gauff has won all 6 career meetings against Samsonova, including 6-1 6-1 at Miami 2026 just weeks ago. The pattern shows increasingly lopsided scorelines.

•Gauff leads H2H 6-0 including 6-1 6-1 in most recent meeting
•Previous meetings show 6-3 6-3 and 6-3 6-1 scorelines
•Gauff has never dropped a set against Samsonova

Samsonova in poor form with recent losing streak

HIGHStats

Samsonova carried a 6-match losing streak into Stuttgart, only broken against lower-ranked Ruzic. Her 1W-6L record in last 7 matches signals deep form issues.

•Samsonova 1W-6L in last 7 matches before Stuttgart
•6-match losing streak broken only vs lower-ranked Antonia Ruzic
•Break point save rate of only 57.2% shows serving vulnerability

Gauff strong on clay as defending Roland Garros champion

MEDIUMStats

Gauff arrives as the defending Roland Garros champion with elite clay credentials, while Samsonova is primarily a hard-court specialist with inconsistent clay results.

•Gauff 18W-3L on clay in 2025
•Defending Roland Garros champion
•Samsonova considered a hard-court specialist with inconsistent clay results

Under 19.5 games offers modest value

MEDIUMMarket

Market at 1.80 implies 55.6% probability, while H2H patterns and form analysis suggest 58% — a small but identifiable edge driven by Gauff's dominant scorelines.

•Last H2H had only 10 total games (6-1 6-1)
•Previous H2H had 15 total games (6-3 6-3)
•Implied probability 55.6% vs estimated 58%

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Cori Gauff @ 1.17:Odds imply 85.5%, matching predictor's 85% — no edge exists at this price.

Game Handicap Cori Gauff -4.5 @ 1.55:Odds imply 64.5% vs predictor 62% — market already prices H2H margins of 6-8 games.

Set 1 Winner Cori Gauff @ 1.22:Odds at 1.22 (82% implied) align with predictor estimate (80%) — no exploitable value margin.

Cori Gauff arrives in Stuttgart as the overwhelming favourite, holding a perfect 6-0 head-to-head record against Liudmila Samsonova that has become increasingly dominant. Their most recent meeting at Miami 2026 was a masterclass: Gauff won 6-1, 6-1 in under an hour. As the defending Roland Garros champion and a top-3 ranked player, Gauff brings elite clay credentials to the indoor Porsche Arena, where the faster surface suits her aggressive baseline game.

Recent Form

Liudmila Samsonova

3W 7L

W6-0 6-4#58 Antonia RuzicApr 13, 2026

L6-2 7-6(11)#97 Lilli TaggerApr 9, 2026

L6-3 7-5#35 Hailey BaptisteMar 20, 2026

L3-6 7-5 6-2#110 Ashlyn KruegerMar 7, 2026

L5-7 7-5 6-3#25 Leylah Annie FernandezFeb 15, 2026

L6-3 4-6 7-6(7)#39 Magdalena FrechFeb 8, 2026

L6-2 4-6 6-4#35 Hailey BaptisteFeb 5, 2026

W6-2 6-2#40 Janice TjenFeb 3, 2026

W6-4 6-0#68 Sofia KeninFeb 1, 2026

L0-6 7-5 6-4#51 Laura SiegemundJan 20, 2026

Cori Gauff

7W 3L

L6-2 4-6 6-3#1 Aryna SabalenkaMar 28, 2026

W6-1 6-1#12 Karolina MuchovaMar 26, 2026

W6-3 1-6 6-3#11 Belinda BencicMar 24, 2026

W6-4 3-6 6-2#26 Sorana CirsteaMar 23, 2026

W3-6 6-0 6-1#95 Alycia ParksMar 21, 2026

W3-6 6-4 6-3#41 Elisabetta CocciarettoMar 20, 2026

L6-2 2-0 ret.#45 Alexandra EalaMar 8, 2026

W6-3 7-6(5)#74 Kamilla RakhimovaMar 6, 2026

L6-4 6-7(13) 6-4#7 Elina SvitolinaFeb 20, 2026

W6-0 6-2#45 Alexandra EalaFeb 19, 2026

Head-to-Head

0-3 (3 meetings)

L6-3 6-3Liudmila Samsonova#21vCori Gauff#3Aug 5, 2023

L4-6 6-1 6-4Liudmila Samsonova#21vCori Gauff#3Apr 7, 2021

L6-7(10) 6-2 6-2Liudmila Samsonova#21vCori Gauff#3Oct 6, 2019

Cori Gauff dominates (3 meetings)3 total meetings

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 14, 08:06

IntelAvailable

Apr 14, 08:13

OddsAvailable

Apr 16, 18:03

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 14, 08:13

Analysis updated: Apr 15, 06:40