Rafael Jodar - Camilo Ugo Carabelli

BarcelonaFinished

Rafael Jodar

#55

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

#64

Wednesday, April 15, 2026 at 14:28

Quick Take

Jodar is the clear heavy favorite after demolishing Ugo Carabelli 6-2 6-1 on clay 11 days ago and winning Marrakech; the moneyline is fairly priced at -400 but the under 21.5 games offers the sharper edge given their recent H2H produced only 15 total games.

Total GamesUnder 21.5 games62%+1.4pts

Context Signals

Jodar perfect 6-0 on clay in 2026

HIGHStats

Rafael Jodar has a flawless clay record in 2026, winning the Marrakech title and climbing to career-high #55 with a 24-7 overall record.

•6-0 on clay in 2026
•Marrakech champion
•24-7 overall record
•Career-high #55 ranking

Jodar demolished Ugo Carabelli 6-2 6-1 just 11 days ago

HIGHHead-to-head

In their only prior meeting at the Marrakech semifinal on clay, Jodar dominated Ugo Carabelli 6-2 6-1, producing only 15 total games.

•Jodar won 6-2 6-1 at Marrakech SF
•Only 15 total games in the match
•Same surface (clay)
•11 days ago

Under 21.5 games offers the sharpest edge

HIGHMarket

The total games under market provides a thin but defensible 1.4pt edge, supported by the recent H2H producing only 15 games and Jodar's clay dominance.

•Prior H2H: 15 total games
•Jodar's straight-set wins averaged 18 games
•1.65 odds imply 60.6% vs 62% estimate

Moneyline fairly priced — no value on match winner

MEDIUMMarket

The -400 moneyline implies 81.97% probability, which exceeds the predictor's 78% estimate, leaving no margin of safety for match winner bets.

•Implied probability 81.97%
•Predictor estimate 78%
•No edge margin

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner :Market is fairly priced or slightly overpricing the favorite. Implied probability (81.97%) is above the predictor confidence level (78%), leaving no margin of safety.

GameHandicap (Jodar 4.5) :The market is near-perfectly efficient for this line. Implied probability (57.83%) vs predictor estimate (58%) generates only 0.17pts edge, insufficient to justify entry.

Set 1 Winner :Jodar's 96% first-set-win conversion and dominant recent form are already fully reflected in the 77.5% implied probability, leaving no edge margin.

Rafael Jodar arrives in Barcelona as the dominant clay force in men's tennis right now, with a perfect 6-0 record on the surface in 2026 after winning the Marrakech title just days ago. Ranked a career-high #55 and climbing 110 places since January, Jodar has compiled an impressive 24-7 overall record. His ball rhythm and topspin dominance were on full display in his Marrakech semifinal, where he demolished Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-2 6-1 — a result that cannot be ignored in this rematch just 11 days later.

Recent Form

Rafael Jodar

9W 1L

W6-1 6-2#38 Jaume Antoni Munar ClarApr 13, 2026

W6-3 6-2#79 Marco TrungellitiApr 5, 2026

W6-2 6-1#64 Camilo Ugo CarabelliApr 4, 2026

W6-2 2-0 ret.#95 Alexandre MullerApr 3, 2026

W6-4 4-6 6-3#47 Tomas MachacApr 2, 2026

W6-3 6-4#134 Dusan LajovicMar 31, 2026

L7-5 6-4#29 Tomas Martin EtcheverryMar 22, 2026

W6-1 6-2#89 Aleksandar VukicMar 21, 2026

W6-4 4-6 6-1#51 Yannick HanfmannMar 19, 2026

W6-4 6-4#106 Benjamin BonziMar 17, 2026

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6W 4L

W6-3 6-4#14 Karen KhachanovApr 14, 2026

L6-2 6-1#55 Rafael JodarApr 4, 2026

W0-6 6-3 6-2#100 Luca Van AsscheApr 3, 2026

W6-3 3-6 7-5#60 Ignacio BuseApr 2, 2026

W6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#195 Timofey SkatovMar 31, 2026

L6-0 6-3#43 Sebastian KordaMar 20, 2026

W2-6 6-3 7-6(3)#53 Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMar 19, 2026

L6-3 6-4#33 Brandon NakashimaMar 6, 2026

W7-6(5) 6-3#124 Martin DammMar 4, 2026

L6-4 6-3#51 Yannick HanfmannFeb 25, 2026

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-1Rafael Jodar#55vCamilo Ugo Carabelli#64Apr 4, 2026

1 total meetings

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 15, 05:53

IntelAvailable

Apr 15, 06:55

OddsAvailable

Apr 15, 15:33

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 15, 06:55

Analysis updated: Apr 15, 07:03