Marco Trungelliti - Hamad Medjedovic

BarcelonaFinished

Marco Trungelliti

#76

Hamad Medjedovic

#83

Monday, April 13, 2026 at 14:29

Finished Snapshot

FT0-2

FinishedSettled

Sets

5-7 · 4-6

Predictions

2W · 5L · 0P

Edges

0W · 3L · 0P

Quick Take

Medjedovic owns recent form (Napoli title, qualifying sharpness) and serve metrics but Trungelliti's clay pedigree and fresher legs as lucky loser narrow the gap—market overprices the favorite and underprices three-set structure and games totals on clay.

Total GamesOver 22.565%+15pts

Game HandicapTrungelliti +2.5 games62%+18.5pts

Total Sets3 sets55%+13pts

Context Signals

Medjedovic qualifying fatigue vs match sharpness

HIGHMixed

Medjedovic played two qualifying matches in 48 hours before this main draw match, providing match sharpness but risking cumulative fatigue against a fresher opponent.

Trungelliti career-best clay form

HIGHMixed

Trungelliti reached a new career-high ranking (No. 76) off the back of a Marrakech ATP 250 final run, posting a 14-3 clay record in 2026.

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Medjedovic 1.33:Market prices Medjedovic at 75.2% implied probability while prediction estimates only 53% — negative expected value on the favorite.

Set 1 Winner Medjedovic:52% prediction with MEDIUM confidence is insufficient edge vs 70% implied; no H2H history reduces confidence further.

Set Betting Trungelliti 2-1:Overpriced at 6.00 despite three-set prediction; Medjedovic's form advantage contradicts Trungelliti winning the decider.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Marco Trungelliti (ATP 76) faces Hamad Medjedovic (ATP 83) in Barcelona Round 1 on outdoor clay—a tight matchup between two specialists in their late forms. Medjedovic arrives hot, having just won the Napoli Challenger and coming through Barcelona qualifying with two matches of intense clay-court experience in 48 hours. He boasts superior serve metrics: a 72.4% first-serve win rate vs. Trungelliti's 68%, and a 10.1% ace rate that should generate 6–8 aces even on clay.

Recent Form

Marco Trungelliti

8W 2L

L5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#119 Pedro Martinez PorteroApr 12, 2026

W6-4 4-6 6-4#139 Nicolai Budkov KjaerApr 11, 2026

L6-3 6-2#57 Rafael JodarApr 5, 2026

W6-4 7-6(2)#21 Luciano DarderiApr 4, 2026

W4-6 6-3 6-4#31 Corentin MoutetApr 3, 2026

W7-6(4) 6-3#60 Kamil MajchrzakApr 1, 2026

W7-6(5) 6-2#129 Henrique RochaMar 31, 2026

W7-6(8) 6-4#165 Rei SakamotoMar 30, 2026

W6-3 7-5#296 Hynek BartonMar 29, 2026

W4-6 6-0 6-3#188 Marco CecchinatoMar 15, 2026

Hamad Medjedovic

8W 2L

W6-2 3-6 7-6(6)#89 Quentin HalysApr 12, 2026

W7-6(13) 6-4#122 Vilius GaubasApr 11, 2026

L6-7(4) 7-5 6-2#75 Vit KoprivaApr 1, 2026

W6-2 6-4#49 Daniel AltmaierMar 29, 2026

W7-5 6-1#180 Vitaliy SachkoMar 28, 2026

W6-2 6-2#88 Alexandre MullerMar 27, 2026

W6-4 3-6 7-5#210 Stefanos SakellaridisMar 26, 2026

W6-3 4-6 7-6(2)#296 Hynek BartonMar 24, 2026

L6-4 6-4#7 Felix Auger AliassimeFeb 12, 2026

W7-6(5) 7-6(5)#47 Zizou BergsFeb 10, 2026

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 12, 19:42

IntelAvailable

Apr 12, 21:11

OddsAvailable

Apr 13, 15:33

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 12, 21:11

Analysis updated: Apr 12, 21:18