Ignacio Buse - Corentin Moutet

BarcelonaFinished

Ignacio Buse

#61

Corentin Moutet

#31

Monday, April 13, 2026 at 09:23

Finished Snapshot

FT0-2

FinishedSettled

Sets

4-6 · 4-6

Predictions

2W · 5L · 0P

Edges

0W · 4L · 0P

Quick Take

Market overprices Moutet (63.7% implied at 1.57) vs model's 54% estimate; Buse's clay specialization (130 career clay wins), Barcelona home advantage, and Moutet's recurring back injury and weak 2026 clay form (2W-2L) create value on structure plays (Over 22.5 games, 3-set outcom...

Total GamesOver 22.5 games72%+22pts

Game HandicapIgnacio Buse +3.5 games66%+5.4pts

Total Sets3 sets62%+18.5pts

Context Signals

Buse's Clay Specialization Undervalued

HIGHMixed

Buse has 130 career clay wins (52% of all career wins) and trains locally in Barcelona, yet the market prices Moutet as a clear favourite based primarily on ranking differential.

Moutet's Recurring Back Injury on Clay

HIGHMixed

Moutet has a documented history of back problems that are particularly concerning on the physically demanding clay surface, with multiple recent withdrawals.

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Corentin Moutet:Market overpricing Moutet at 1.57 (63.7% implied) vs model's 54% estimate. Buse's clay specialization (130 career wins) and Barcelona home-court advantage narrow the gap beyond what odds reflect.

Set 1 Winner Corentin Moutet:First set winner odds do not embed surface-specific advantages that differ meaningfully from general match winner probabilities. No actionable edge.

Total Aces all lines:Market data unavailable in odds — no pricing to compare against.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Corentin Moutet enters this Barcelona clay clash as the higher-ranked player (No. 31 vs Buse's No. 61) with more ATP experience, yet the matchup is far tighter than the ranking differential suggests. Buse's Barcelona home court is a substantial edge—he trains locally at the Tennis Empowerment Centre under coach Juan Lizariturry and recently hit career-high No. 59 (March 30, 2026), signaling strong form. More critically, Buse is a clay specialist with 130 career clay wins comprising 52% of his entire ATP record, compared to Moutet's more balanced game.

Recent Form

Ignacio Buse

4W 6L

L2-6 6-3 6-3#177 David GoffinApr 4, 2026

L6-3 3-6 7-5#63 Camilo Ugo CarabelliApr 2, 2026

W7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-4#90 Matteo BerrettiniMar 31, 2026

L6-7(6) 7-6(6) 6-1#81 Damir DzumhurMar 19, 2026

W6-2 3-6 6-3#125 Chak Lam Coleman WongMar 17, 2026

W6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#145 Moez EcharguiMar 16, 2026

L3-6 6-3 6-4#100 Rinky HijikataMar 3, 2026

W6-4 7-6(3)#144 Liam DraxlMar 2, 2026

L2-6 7-6(0) 7-6(2)#72 Thiago Agustin TiranteFeb 24, 2026

L6-3 6-3#39 Alejandro TabiloFeb 22, 2026

Corentin Moutet

5W 5L

L7-5 6-3#12 Casper RuudApr 8, 2026

W6-4 6-1#88 Alexandre MullerApr 7, 2026

L4-6 6-3 6-4#76 Marco TrungellitiApr 3, 2026

W6-0 6-2#488 Taha BaadiApr 1, 2026

L6-1 6-4#2 Jannik SinnerMar 23, 2026

W6-0 1-6 6-4#53 Tomas MachacMar 21, 2026

L4-6 6-3 6-4#69 Marcos GironMar 14, 2026

W7-6(5) 6-4#124 Nikoloz BasilashviliMar 13, 2026

W6-4 6-4#89 Quentin HalysMar 12, 2026

L6-1 6-4#98 Aleksandar KovacevicMar 7, 2026

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 12, 20:59

IntelAvailable

Apr 12, 21:12

OddsAvailable

Apr 13, 10:33

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 12, 21:12

Analysis updated: Apr 12, 21:20