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Felix Auger Aliassime - Jannik Sinner
Monte CarloFinished
Felix Auger Aliassime
#7
Jannik Sinner
#2
Friday, April 10, 2026 at 11:00
Finished Snapshot
FT0-2
FinishedSettled
Sets
3-6 · 4-6
Predictions
4W · 6L · 0P
Edges
0W · 4L · 0P
Quick Take
Sinner is the clear favourite but vastly overpriced at 1.10; Auger Aliassime's 1-0 clay H2H, recent UTS title, and Sinner's clay vulnerabilities create a legitimate upset path.
Total GamesOver 21.5 games62%+20.3pts
Game HandicapFelix Auger Aliassime +4.5 games58%+14.5pts
Total Sets3 sets45%+14.7pts
Context Signals
Sinner's Clay Vulnerability Exposed
HIGHMixedDespite 21-2 overall record in 2026, Sinner dropped a set to world No. 53 Machac in the previous round and has never beaten FAA on clay.
FAA Arrives with Clay Momentum
MEDIUMMixedAuger Aliassime won a clay-court UTS event at Nimes immediately before Monte Carlo, providing surface-specific match sharpness and confidence.
Betting Edges
Predictions
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Sinner @ 1.10 / FAA @ 7.00:Market heavily overprices Sinner at 90.9% implied; FAA undervalued but high execution risk makes neither side a reliable edge play.
Set 1 Winner Sinner @ 1.17:Mixed clay-specific evidence and MEDIUM confidence prevent a high-conviction edge despite 20.5pt gap between market and estimate.
Total Aces N/A:Market data not available in odds feed.
Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Jannik Sinner enters the Monte Carlo quarterfinal as a commanding favourite despite playing on clay, his only surface weakness in the H2H against Felix Auger Aliassime. The world No. 2 arrives in imperious form: 21-2 overall in 2026, 2-0 on clay this season, and on a 10-match winning streak. His 4-2 H2H edge and four consecutive wins over FAA demonstrate absolute dominance in recent meetings. However, there are structural cracks in Sinner's clay armour. He dropped a set to Tomas Machac (world No.
Recent Form
Felix Auger Aliassime
7W 3LW7-5 2-2 ret.#12 Casper RuudApr 9, 2026
W7-6(4) 6-3#51 Marin CilicApr 8, 2026
L6-3 1-6 6-3#45 Terence AtmaneMar 23, 2026
W7-6(3) 7-5#58 Marton FucsovicsMar 21, 2026
L6-3 7-6(9)#28 Arthur FilsMar 10, 2026
W6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#36 Gabriel DialloMar 8, 2026
W6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#199 Gael MonfilsMar 6, 2026
L6-4 6-2#10 Daniil MedvedevFeb 27, 2026
W6-3 7-6(2)#13 Jiri LeheckaFeb 26, 2026
W6-4 6-4#56 Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardFeb 25, 2026
Jannik Sinner
10W 0LW6-1 6-7(3) 6-3#53 Tomas MachacApr 9, 2026
W6-3 6-0#34 Ugo HumbertApr 7, 2026
W6-4 6-4#13 Jiri LeheckaMar 29, 2026
W6-3 7-6(4)#3 Alexander ZverevMar 27, 2026
W6-2 6-2#20 Frances TiafoeMar 26, 2026
W7-5 7-6(4)#35 Alex MichelsenMar 24, 2026
W6-1 6-4#31 Corentin MoutetMar 23, 2026
W6-3 6-3#81 Damir DzumhurMar 21, 2026
W7-6(6) 7-6(4)#10 Daniil MedvedevMar 15, 2026
W6-2 6-4#3 Alexander ZverevMar 14, 2026
Head-to-Head
2-4 (6 meetings)L7-5 6-1Felix Auger Aliassime#7vJannik Sinner#2Nov 10, 2025
L6-4 7-6(4)Felix Auger Aliassime#7vJannik Sinner#2Nov 2, 2025
L6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4Felix Auger Aliassime#7vJannik Sinner#2Sep 5, 2025
L6-0 6-2Felix Auger Aliassime#7vJannik Sinner#2Aug 14, 2025
W2-6 7-6(1) 6-1Felix Auger Aliassime#7vJannik Sinner#2Aug 18, 2022
W6-1 6-2Felix Auger Aliassime#7vJannik Sinner#2May 5, 2022
6 total meetings
Data Coverage (dev)
Data Coverage
StatsAvailable
Apr 09, 20:08
IntelAvailable
Apr 09, 20:11
OddsAvailable
Apr 10, 13:43
Injuries/News (from Intel)Available
Apr 09, 20:11
Analysis updated: Apr 09, 20:18