Felix Auger Aliassime - Casper Ruud

Monte CarloFinished

Felix Auger Aliassime

Casper Ruud

#12

Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 10:51

Finished Snapshot

FT1-0

FinishedSettled

Sets

7-5 · 2-2

Predictions

3W · 5L · 0P

Edges

2W · 3L · 0P

Quick Take

FAA holds significant edge: he beat Ruud on clay at UTS Nimes days ago, leads H2H 5-4, and has superior 2026 form (16-6) despite Ruud's elite clay credentials and strong Monte Carlo start.

Game HandicapCasper Ruud +2.563%+15.4pts

Total GamesOver 22.560%+5.9pts

Match WinnerFelix Auger Aliassime55%+8.5pts

Context Signals

FAA beat Ruud on clay at UTS Nimes days before this match

HIGHMixed

Felix Auger-Aliassime won the UTS Nimes clay final against Casper Ruud just days before their Monte Carlo R3 meeting, providing direct same-surface, same-opponent confidence and momentum.

Ruud's 2025 injury retirements raise durability concerns

MEDIUMMixed

Ruud retired with knee injury at Wimbledon, wrist issue at Shanghai Masters, and withdrew from Basel in 2025. While no withdrawal confirmed at Monte Carlo, his injury pattern creates mid-match DNF risk.

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Set 1 Winner :Set 1 markets are highly volatile and dependent on match opening conditions, momentum swings, and serve hold patterns that are not sufficiently predictable from season-level form data.

Total Aces :Market not available in odds data — cannot assess value.

Total Double Faults :Market not available in odds data — cannot assess value.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Felix Auger-Aliassime arrives at Monte Carlo with exceptional momentum and a crucial psychological edge: he defeated Casper Ruud just days earlier in the UTS Nimes clay final, a stunning result that validates his 2026 form (16-6 record) over Ruud's slower start (9-7). This head-to-head victory is far more valuable than their historical records suggest—FAA now leads their career matchup 5-4 with three consecutive wins in 2024, proving he has found answers to Ruud's clay game.

Recent Form

Felix Auger Aliassime

7W 3L

W7-6(4) 6-3#51 Marin CilicApr 8, 2026

L6-3 1-6 6-3#45 Terence AtmaneMar 23, 2026

W7-6(3) 7-5#58 Marton FucsovicsMar 21, 2026

L6-3 7-6(9)#28 Arthur FilsMar 10, 2026

W6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#36 Gabriel DialloMar 8, 2026

W6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#199 Gael MonfilsMar 6, 2026

L6-4 6-2#10 Daniil MedvedevFeb 27, 2026

W6-3 7-6(2)#13 Jiri LeheckaFeb 26, 2026

W6-4 6-4#56 Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardFeb 25, 2026

W6-3 7-6(4)#240 Zhizhen ZhangFeb 23, 2026

Casper Ruud

5W 5L

W7-5 6-3#31 Corentin MoutetApr 8, 2026

W6-3 6-4#44 Alexei PopyrinApr 7, 2026

L6-4 7-6(7)#54 Ethan QuinnMar 20, 2026

L6-1 7-6(2)#1 Carlos AlcarazMar 11, 2026

W3-6 6-3 6-4#23 Valentin VacherotMar 9, 2026

W6-1 7-6(4)#77 Alexander ShevchenkoMar 7, 2026

L7-6(2) 7-6(1)#115 Yibing WuFeb 24, 2026

L4-6 6-2 6-2#41 Sebastian KordaFeb 20, 2026

W4-6 7-6(6) 6-4#69 Marcos GironFeb 18, 2026

L3-6 6-4 6-3 6-4#8 Ben SheltonJan 26, 2026

Head-to-Head

5-4 (9 meetings)

W6-3 6-1Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12Aug 16, 2024

W6-4 6-7(8) 6-3Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12Aug 1, 2024

W6-4 7-5Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12Apr 30, 2024

L7-6(4) 6-4Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12Nov 13, 2022

L6-1 6-2Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12Aug 12, 2022

L6-1 6-4Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12May 4, 2021

W3-6 6-1 6-2Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12Mar 21, 2019

L7-5 6-0Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12Apr 25, 2018

W6-4 6-7(4) 6-4Felix Auger Aliassime#7vCasper Ruud#12Jun 16, 2017

9 total meetings

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 08, 21:10

IntelAvailable

Apr 08, 21:12

OddsAvailable

Apr 09, 12:13

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 08, 21:12

Analysis updated: Apr 08, 21:23