Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cerundolo is ranked 34 places higher, has a dominant 8-2 clay record in 2026, and just dismantled Tsitsipas in straight sets on this surface. Machac has chronic fitness issues with 10 retirements in 14 months and a weak 1-1 clay record this year.
- Cerundolo is 8-2 on clay in 2026 vs Machac 1-1 on clay in 2026
- Cerundolo beat Tsitsipas 7-5 6-4 in R1 Monte Carlo showing sharp clay form
- Machac has retired from 10 matches in roughly 14 months, including a knee issue at Montpellier in Feb 2026
- Monte Carlo's slow clay surface strongly favors Cerundolo's baseline grinding style over Machac's aggressive approach
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFrancisco CerundoloEstimated chance68%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cerundolo's recent clay wins show margins of +4 (vs Tsitsipas), +5 (vs Humbert), and +6 (vs Tirante) games. With his ranking and form advantage on this surface, a margin of 4+ games is likely in a straight-sets win, though a three-set scenario could narrow the gap.
- Cerundolo won by 4+ games in 3 of his last 4 clay victories
- Cerundolo's average game margin in recent straight-set clay wins: +5 games
- Machac's losses in 2026 saw him lose by average margins of 5+ games in straight-set defeats
- The ranking gap (19 vs 53) and surface differential support a comfortable Cerundolo margin
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFrancisco Cerundolo -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cerundolo has won the first set in 7 of his last 8 matches and converts 87% of first set wins into match wins. His consistent start combined with Machac's tendency to start slowly (lost first sets vs Moutet 0-6, vs Nava 2-6) gives Cerundolo a clear edge in set 1.
- Cerundolo won the first set in 7 of his last 8 matches across all surfaces
- Cerundolo's first set win conversion rate is 87%
- Machac lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches (vs Moutet 0-6, vs Nava 2-6, vs Jodar 4-6)
- Cerundolo started with 7-5 vs Tsitsipas in R1, showing he can impose himself from the opening set
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFrancisco CerundoloEstimated chance63%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cerundolo's recent clay matches have featured decisive breaks rather than tiebreaks, and both players have break point conversion rates above 43%. On slow clay with two baseline players, service breaks are more common than hold streaks leading to tiebreaks.
- Cerundolo's last 5 clay matches produced only 1 tiebreak (vs Bonzi at Indian Wells)
- Break point conversion rates are high for both players (Cerundolo 44%, Machac 43%) suggesting frequent breaks
- Clay court matches at Monte Carlo historically produce fewer tiebreaks due to the slow surface
- Machac's recent tiebreaks (vs Tsitsipas, vs Humbert) came on hard courts, not clay
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Clay courts significantly reduce ace frequency due to higher bounce and slower pace. Cerundolo has a low career ace rate of 3.3% and Machac's 6.5% rate will be suppressed on slow Monte Carlo clay. Combined, they are unlikely to produce many aces in a best-of-3 format.
- Cerundolo's career ace rate is 3.3% (~2.2 aces per match career average)
- Machac's career ace rate is 6.5% (~4.5 aces per match career average) but will be reduced on slow clay
- Monte Carlo is one of the slowest clay courts on tour, suppressing ace numbers
- In their H2H, Cerundolo hit 3 aces and Machac hit 1 ace (4 total) on clay
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have notable double fault rates and the pressure of a Masters 1000 R2 match on clay often leads to serving errors. Cerundolo's 3.7% DF rate and Machac's 2.9% rate combine to project around 6-8 double faults across a 2-3 set match.
- Cerundolo has a career double fault rate of 3.7% with 1420 total double faults in 563 matches (~2.5 per match)
- Machac has a career double fault rate of 2.9% with 885 total double faults in 447 matches (~2.0 per match)
- In their H2H, they combined for 5 double faults (Cerundolo 2, Machac 3) in 3 sets
- Clay court rallies and second serve pressure tend to increase double fault frequency
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Francisco Cerundolo #19Argentina0Tomas Machac #53Czechia2

Player Profiles

Francisco Cerundolo

Tomas Machac

Quick Take

Context

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Tomas Machac

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Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 1 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Francisco Cerundolo

Tomas Machac