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Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini

Monte CarloFinished

Daniil Medvedev

#10

Matteo Berrettini

#90

Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 09:00

Finished Snapshot

FT0-2
FinishedSettled

Sets

0-6 Β· 0-6

Predictions

2W Β· 7L Β· 0P

Edges

1W Β· 3L Β· 0P

Quick Take

Medvedev's undefeated H2H (3-0) and current form are challenged by clay court dynamics that severely limit his flat game and zero 2026 clay match play. Berrettini's clay credentials, desperate Roland Garros motivation, match rhythm, and structural H2H advantage on this surface ma...

Game HandicapMatteo Berrettini +3.5 games65%+4.4pts
Total GamesOver 22.5 games62%+9.4pts
Total Sets3 sets58%+16pts

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Total Aces N/A:Market not available in odds data β€” cannot assess value without pricing.
Total Double Faults N/A:Market not available in odds data β€” cannot assess value without pricing.
Tiebreak in Match N/A:Market not available in odds data β€” cannot assess value without pricing.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Medvedev arrives as the clear favorite on paperβ€”7th seed, 3-0 career H2H, and on a three-title streak (Brisbane, Dubai, Indian Wells final). But clay court context flips the script entirely. All three of Medvedev's H2H wins came on hard courts; he has only 1 clay title in 23 ATP wins and publicly acknowledged clay as a structural challenge before Monte Carlo. He enters off a bye with zero clay match play in 2026, meaning he's adapting to a slower surface while cold.

Recent Form

Daniil Medvedev

8W 2L
L6-0 4-6 7-5#19 Francisco CerundoloMar 23, 2026
W6-7(10) 6-3 6-1#165 Rei SakamotoMar 21, 2026
L7-6(6) 7-6(4)#2 Jannik SinnerMar 15, 2026
W6-3 7-6(3)#1 Carlos AlcarazMar 14, 2026
W6-1 7-5#25 Jack DraperMar 12, 2026
W6-2 6-4#35 Alex MichelsenMar 11, 2026
W6-4 6-0#65 Sebastian BaezMar 9, 2026
W6-4 6-2#39 Alejandro TabiloMar 7, 2026
W6-4 6-2#7 Felix Auger AliassimeFeb 27, 2026
W6-2 6-1#64 Jenson BrooksbyFeb 26, 2026

Matteo Berrettini

5W 5L
W4-0 ret.#85 Roberto Bautista AgutApr 7, 2026
L7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-4#61 Ignacio BuseMar 31, 2026
L7-6(5) 6-4#23 Valentin VacherotMar 22, 2026
W6-4 6-4#11 Alexander BublikMar 20, 2026
W6-4 6-2#88 Alexandre MullerMar 19, 2026
L6-3 6-4#3 Alexander ZverevMar 6, 2026
W4-6 7-5 7-5#46 Adrian MannarinoMar 4, 2026
L6-3 6-4#103 Emilio NavaFeb 24, 2026
L6-3 2-6 6-3#61 Ignacio BuseFeb 20, 2026
W3-6 6-4 6-2#128 Dusan LajovicFeb 19, 2026

Head-to-Head

3-0 (3 meetings)
W6-2 6-7(5) 6-4Daniil Medvedev#10vMatteo Berrettini#90Jan 6, 2022
W6-4 6-2Daniil Medvedev#10vMatteo Berrettini#90Feb 7, 2021
W6-7(6) 7-5 6-4Daniil Medvedev#10vMatteo Berrettini#90Mar 10, 2018
Daniil Medvedev dominates (3 meetings)3 total meetings
Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete
StatsAvailable

Apr 07, 19:14

IntelAvailable

Apr 07, 19:16

OddsAvailable

Apr 08, 09:43

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 07, 19:16

Analysis updated: Apr 07, 19:24