Corentin Moutet - Casper Ruud

Monte CarloFinished

Corentin Moutet

#31

Casper Ruud

#12

Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 13:42

Finished Snapshot

FT0-2

FinishedSettled

Sets

5-7 · 3-6

Predictions

6W · 2L · 0P

Edges

3W · 1L · 0P

Quick Take

Ruud (ranked #12, 73.7% career clay win rate) dominates unseeded Moutet (#31) on Monte Carlo clay with superior serve metrics and clean H2H record (1-0). Back Ruud match winner and set 1 winner for +4.1pts and +2.4pts edge respectively; over 21.5 games offers +4.4pts as Moutet's...

Match WinnerCasper Ruud74%+4.1pts

Set 1 WinnerCasper Ruud70%+2.4pts

Total GamesOver 21.560%+4.4pts

Context Signals

Ruud dominant on clay

HIGHMixed

Casper Ruud carries a 73.7% career clay win rate with 252 wins, two-time French Open finalist. Monte Carlo slow clay heavily favours his topspin game.

Serve metrics gap

HIGHMixed

Ruud holds significant serve advantage: 71.5% first serve win pct vs Moutet 65.5%, ace rate 6.3% vs 2.7%. This translates to service hold dominance on clay.

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Total Aces :Market not available in odds data. Cannot assess pricing efficiency.

Total Double Faults :Market not available in odds data. Cannot assess pricing efficiency.

Tiebreak in Match :Market not available in odds data. Prediction (No, 68% probability) cannot be validated against market odds.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Casper Ruud enters this Monte Carlo R2 matchup with Corentin Moutet in exceptional form and commanding structural advantages. The #12-ranked Norwegian dominated Alexei Popyrin 6-3, 6-4 in the opening round (April 7, 2026), arriving on clay after deliberate warm-up preparation at the Nimes UTS event. Ruud carries a formidable 73.7% career clay win rate and is a two-time French Open finalist, making him the clear favourite on the slow Monte Carlo surface. His serve metrics are significantly superior—71.5% first serve win percentage and 6.

Recent Form

Corentin Moutet

5W 5L

W6-4 6-1#88 Alexandre MullerApr 7, 2026

L4-6 6-3 6-4#76 Marco TrungellitiApr 3, 2026

W6-0 6-2#488 Taha BaadiApr 1, 2026

L6-1 6-4#2 Jannik SinnerMar 23, 2026

W6-0 1-6 6-4#53 Tomas MachacMar 21, 2026

L4-6 6-3 6-4#69 Marcos GironMar 14, 2026

W7-6(5) 6-4#124 Nikoloz BasilashviliMar 13, 2026

W6-4 6-4#89 Quentin HalysMar 12, 2026

L6-1 6-4#98 Aleksandar KovacevicMar 7, 2026

L6-2 6-4#3 Alexander ZverevFeb 24, 2026

Casper Ruud

5W 5L

W6-3 6-4#44 Alexei PopyrinApr 7, 2026

L6-4 7-6(7)#54 Ethan QuinnMar 20, 2026

L6-1 7-6(2)#1 Carlos AlcarazMar 11, 2026

W3-6 6-3 6-4#23 Valentin VacherotMar 9, 2026

W6-1 7-6(4)#77 Alexander ShevchenkoMar 7, 2026

L7-6(2) 7-6(1)#115 Yibing WuFeb 24, 2026

L4-6 6-2 6-2#41 Sebastian KordaFeb 20, 2026

W4-6 7-6(6) 6-4#69 Marcos GironFeb 18, 2026

L3-6 6-4 6-3 6-4#8 Ben SheltonJan 26, 2026

W6-4 6-4 3-6 7-5#51 Marin CilicJan 24, 2026

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-1 6-2 6-7(4) 6-2Corentin Moutet#31vCasper Ruud#12Sep 4, 2022

1 total meetings

Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete

StatsAvailable

Apr 07, 19:32

IntelAvailable

Apr 07, 19:34

OddsAvailable

Apr 08, 15:13

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 07, 19:34

Analysis updated: Apr 07, 19:40