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Roberto Bautista-Agut - Matteo Berrettini

ATPFinished

Roberto Bautista Agut

#85

Matteo Berrettini

#90

Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 09:05

Finished Snapshot

FT0-1
FinishedSettled

Sets

0-4

Predictions

3W · 4L · 0P

Edges

0W · 3L · 0P

Quick Take

Berrettini dominates Bautista Agut across every structural metric (H2H 4-1, serve stats 77.5% vs 69.5% FSW, 2024 clay record 93.8% vs 83.3%), while Bautista Agut limps in with late-2025 leg injury and minimal match sharpness at 37.

Total GamesOver 21.5 games62%+4.2pts
Total SetsOver 2.5 sets54%+12.3pts
Set BettingMatteo Berrettini 2-132%+5.3pts

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Predictions

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner 1.33 / 3.30:Market overestimates Berrettini probability: implied 75.2% vs model estimate 62%. No edge available.
Game Handicap -4.5 / -3.5:Conflicting signals: RBA's tiebreak struggles vs Berrettini's small 2025 clay sample create unstable edges across multiple handicap levels.
Set 1 Winner 1.40:Market implies 71.4% but form/H2H support only ~58% — apparent overpricing conflicts with MEDIUM confidence and equal first-set conversion rates (86%).

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Roberto Bautista Agut arrives at Monte Carlo hobbled by a late-2025 leg injury that forced him off the tour for months. At 37, his comeback is already fraught with form concerns—he enters this ATP Masters 1000 clay event with minimal match sharpness and faces an opponent who dominates him historically. Matteo Berrettini, despite withdrawing from the Australian Open with a recurring oblique strain, has shown more recent competitive activity: a solid return in Buenos Aires (defeating Coria 7-5, 7-5) and a dominant hard-court win over Bublik (6-4, 6-4) in March signal that his body is responding…

Recent Form

Roberto Bautista Agut

4W 6L
L7-6(3) 7-6(4)#77 Alexander ShevchenkoApr 5, 2026
W6-4 6-3#102 Benjamin BonziApr 4, 2026
L6-1 1-6 6-1#114 Titouan DroguetMar 31, 2026
L6-3 6-3#14 Karen KhachanovMar 20, 2026
W7-6(3) 7-6(4)#86 James DuckworthMar 19, 2026
L6-4 7-6(5)#73 Valentin RoyerMar 12, 2026
W6-1 6-4#177 David GoffinMar 11, 2026
L3-6 6-3 6-2#25 Jack DraperMar 7, 2026
W6-4 6-7(2) 6-4#43 Fabian MarozsanMar 5, 2026
L7-6(3) 6-1#24 Cameron NorrieFeb 9, 2026

Matteo Berrettini

5W 5L
L7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-4#61 Ignacio BuseMar 31, 2026
L7-6(5) 6-4#23 Valentin VacherotMar 22, 2026
W6-4 6-4#11 Alexander BublikMar 20, 2026
W6-4 6-2#88 Alexandre MullerMar 19, 2026
L6-3 6-4#3 Alexander ZverevMar 6, 2026
W4-6 7-5 7-5#46 Adrian MannarinoMar 4, 2026
L6-3 6-4#103 Emilio NavaFeb 24, 2026
L6-3 2-6 6-3#61 Ignacio BuseFeb 20, 2026
W3-6 6-4 6-2#128 Dusan LajovicFeb 19, 2026
W7-6(1) 7-5#123 Tomas Barrios VeraFeb 17, 2026

Head-to-Head

1-4 (5 meetings)
L6-3 7-5Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90Feb 6, 2021
L7-6(5) 6-4Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90Oct 10, 2019
L6-4 6-2Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90May 5, 2019
W6-1 6-4Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90Dec 31, 2018
L7-6(9) 6-4Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90Jul 29, 2018
Matteo Berrettini dominates (5 meetings)5 total meetings
Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete
StatsAvailable

Apr 06, 18:16

IntelAvailable

Apr 06, 18:18

OddsAvailable

Apr 07, 09:13

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

Apr 06, 18:18

Analysis updated: Apr 06, 18:25