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Sebastian Baez - Stan Wawrinka
ATPFinished
Sebastian Baez
#65
Stan Wawrinka
#104
Monday, April 6, 2026 at 11:13
Finished Snapshot
FT2-0
FinishedSettled
Sets
7-5 Β· 7-5
Predictions
7W Β· 0L Β· 0P
Edges
2W Β· 0L Β· 0P
Quick Take
Baez dominates on clay (237-112 career record) versus a declining Wawrinka (6-8 in 2026) with a proven 1-0 H2H edge, making the clearest betting edge a straight-set victory (2-0) at 2.00 odds rather than the overpriced moneyline at 1.38.
Set 1 WinnerSebastian Baez68%-1.4pts
Set BettingSebastian Baez 2-052%+2pts
Betting Edges
Predictions
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner 1.38:Baez at 1.38 carries 72.5% implied probability, matching the model's 72% estimate almost exactly. No defensible edge after vigorish.
Total Games Over 21.5 @ 1.80:Over 21.5 at 1.80 (55.6% implied) versus model estimate 55% creates negligible edge. MEDIUM confidence and high variance indicate insufficient conviction.
Game Handicap Baez -3.5 @ 1.80:Baez -3.5 at 1.80 implies 55.6% probability against model estimate 53%, creating slight overlay. Too close to break-even with MEDIUM confidence.
Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Sebastian Baez arrives at Monte Carlo as a dominant clay court specialist with commanding form and fitness advantages over Stan Wawrinka. Ranked 65 to Wawrinka's 104, Baez carries a stellar 2026 record of 15-7 overall with 5-3 on clay, having just competed at Bucharest days ago. More crucially, Baez boasts a career clay record of 237-112 (a 67% win rate on his preferred surface) and defeated Wawrinka 7-5, 6-4 in their only prior meeting at the United Cup in January 2026 on hard courtβa surface less favorable to him, yet he prevailed decisively.
Recent Form
Sebastian Baez
5W 5LL6-4 6-4#114 Titouan DroguetApr 3, 2026
W6-3 6-1#122 Vilius GaubasMar 31, 2026
L6-2 6-2#111 Adam WaltonMar 20, 2026
L6-4 6-0#10 Daniil MedvedevMar 9, 2026
W6-4 6-1#13 Jiri LeheckaMar 7, 2026
W6-3 6-2#158 Chun Hsin TsengMar 5, 2026
L6-4 6-3#21 Luciano DarderiFeb 28, 2026
W7-6(2) 6-1#39 Alejandro TabiloFeb 27, 2026
W7-6(2) 1-6 7-5#109 Cristian GarinFeb 26, 2026
L7-5 6-1#143 Jaime FariaFeb 17, 2026
Stan Wawrinka
5W 5LL2-6 6-4 7-6(2)#319 Matteo MartineauMar 24, 2026
L6-2 6-3#10 Daniil MedvedevFeb 25, 2026
W7-5 6-3#337 Benjamin HassanFeb 23, 2026
L6-4 6-2#6 Alex De MinaurFeb 12, 2026
W6-3 6-4#834 Thijs BoogaardFeb 11, 2026
L6-4 7-6(3)#7 Felix Auger AliassimeFeb 5, 2026
W7-6(3) 6-4#83 Hamad MedjedovicFeb 4, 2026
L7-6(5) 2-6 6-4 6-4#9 Taylor FritzJan 24, 2026
W4-6 6-3 3-6 7-5 7-6(3)#137 Arthur GeaJan 22, 2026
W5-7 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)#201 Laslo DjereJan 19, 2026
Head-to-Head
1-0 (1 meetings)W7-5 6-4Sebastian Baez#65vStan Wawrinka#104Jan 7, 2026
1 total meetings
Data Coverage (dev)
Data Coverage
StatsAvailable
Apr 06, 09:31
IntelAvailable
Apr 06, 09:33
OddsAvailable
Apr 06, 12:47
Injuries/News (from Intel)Available
Apr 06, 09:33
Analysis updated: Apr 06, 10:12