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Predictions graded

Pachuca1Cruz Azul2

HT 1–1Thu 22 Oct 2026, 03:10 Predictions graded

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 14–11On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 0–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 08:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Pachuca are still hunting a first home league win of the Apertura, and Cruz Azul — fifth and fresh from a 5-0 win over Juárez — look the likelier winners, though both squads are missing regulars.

The prices do not reward it: Cruz Azul to win at 2.25 and Pachuca at 2.9 are both too short, as are both teams to score at 1.62 and a goal before half-time at 1.25; over 2.5 goals at 1.65 offers no clear advantage.

Context

Barreto's ban takes a starting defender out of a back line that has conceded in each of Pachuca's five home league matches this Apertura, including three goals to Necaxa and three to Puebla at the Hidalgo. Losing Kenedy and Domínguez removes two wide forwards from the group that scored three at Atlante and two at Juárez, and Arroyo's absence thins central midfield. The counterweight is that the home shortfall predates these absences, so the changes read more as a reshuffle of personnel than as a clear drop in level for this specific game.
- Sergio Barreto is unavailable for the Jornada 13 match because of yellow-card accumulation.
- Alexei Domínguez, Robert Kenedy and Andrés Arroyo are out injured for the same fixture.
- Pachuca have conceded in all five of their home league matches in the Apertura 2026, including three goals to Necaxa and three to Puebla at the Hidalgo.
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:57 · Europe/BucharestPachuca vs Cruz Azul Jornada 13 previewvamoscruzazul.bolavip.com · 20 Oct 2026
Paradela and Ditta have been regular starters in midfield and central defence, the two areas where a rotated Cruz Azul side is hardest to rebuild, and both were still doubtful when the trip was prepared. Huiqui answered a similar problem against Juárez on 18 October by changing his XI and using academy players, and the 5-0 win shows that depth can hold at home. Whether it holds at the Hidalgo against a Pachuca team fighting for its home record is untested. Cruz Azul have not named the two starters who stayed behind, so the size and location of the reshuffle remain uncertain.
- The squad named for the Pachuca match includes returning winger Rotondi but not two regular starters.
- Two days earlier Huiqui said Paradela and Ditta remained doubtful because of physical discomfort.
- Cruz Azul beat FC Juárez 5-0 on 18 October after Huiqui changed his starting XI and gave minutes to younger players.
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:57 · Europe/BucharestPachuca vs Cruz Azul Jornada 13 previewvamoscruzazul.bolavip.com · 20 Oct 2026
Rotondi's return restores a wide attacker to a squad that had been managing his muscle problem for several weeks, and Huiqui's remark about his training level points to a full return rather than a partial session. The likely effect is depth as much as a starting place, since Cruz Azul play at Querétaro on 25 October and Huiqui has already shown he will rotate within a congested closing stretch. His last competitive minutes and the plan for his workload are not public, so a bench role remains a live possibility for this match.
- Huiqui said Rotondi was training at the same level as the rest of the group.
- Rotondi was included in the Cruz Azul squad that travelled for the Jornada 13 match at Pachuca.
- Rotondi had been in the final stage of recovery and was previously flagged as a possible return in the Jornada 12 game against FC Juárez.
ReportedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:57 · Europe/BucharestPachuca vs Cruz Azul Jornada 13 previewvamoscruzazul.bolavip.com · 20 Oct 2026
Three points from five home league matches, with draws against Necaxa, Tijuana and Chivas and defeats to Puebla and Querétaro, means the Hidalgo has not operated as the stronghold Cruz Azul might expect to visit. It matters because Cruz Azul arrive after a five-goal afternoon while Pachuca must defend a venue where they have conceded in every home league game, and local coverage treats the fixture as one carrying more than three points. The counterpoint is that Pachuca's away form is the stronger half of their season, with wins at Atlante, Juárez and Pumas, so this looks like a specific home-game problem rather than a general collapse.
- Pachuca's home league results this Apertura are 3-3 with Necaxa, 2-2 with Tijuana, 1-1 with Chivas, 2-3 with Puebla and 1-2 with Querétaro.
- Pachuca lost 2-1 at Monterrey on 19 October in their most recent league match.
- The visit of Cruz Azul is being framed as a game carrying more than three points for Pachuca in the closing rounds.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:57 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

−5.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half averages point to at least one goal before the break.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 61.7%

−0.7ppshort

Pachuca's home games have always had both teams scoring and Cruz Azul usually find a goal.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Cruz Azul

2.25fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 44.4%

−2.4ppshort

Cruz Azul are higher in the table, have the stronger recent head-to-head record and face a Pachuca side missing several players.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Cruz Azul are higher in the table, have the stronger recent head-to-head record and face a Pachuca side missing several players.
- Cruz Azul are 5th with 20 points; Pachuca are 16th with 13.
- Cruz Azul have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
- Cruz Azul beat FC Juárez 5-0 in their latest match.
- Pachuca have conceded 11 goals in 5 home league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCruz AzulEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cruz Azul score more often before half-time and Pachuca have conceded early at home.
- Cruz Azul average 0.93 first-half goals for and 0.64 against.
- Pachuca concede 1.0 first-half goal per game overall and 1.4 at home.
- Cruz Azul led at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Pachuca led at half-time in only 1 of their last 6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCruz AzulEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pachuca have drawn three home games and won the latest meeting, so a home win is possible despite their poor home run. Cruz Azul are higher in the table, have the stronger recent head-to-head record and face a Pachuca side missing several players.
- Pachuca have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in 5 home league matches this Apertura.
- Pachuca are 16th with 13 points from 12 matches; Cruz Azul are 5th with 20.
- Cruz Azul are 5th with 20 points; Pachuca are 16th with 13.
- Cruz Azul have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPachuca or Cruz AzulEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score slowly before half-time, so the interval score may be level. Cruz Azul score more often before half-time and Pachuca have conceded early at home.
- Pachuca average 0.6 first-half goals for; Cruz Azul average 0.93.
- Pachuca's 5 home league matches average 0.6 first-half goals for.
- Cruz Azul average 0.93 first-half goals for and 0.64 against.
- Pachuca concede 1.0 first-half goal per game overall and 1.4 at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Cruz AzulEstimated chance73%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Pachuca's home games have been open and Cruz Azul have scored heavily in recent matches.
- Pachuca's 5 home league matches have produced 20 goals (9 for, 11 against).
- Cruz Azul's 14 competitive matches average 3.5 total goals (1.86 for, 1.64 against).
- Pachuca's 15 competitive matches average 2.87 total goals.
- Cruz Azul scored at least three goals in four of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Pachuca's home games have always had both teams scoring and Cruz Azul usually find a goal.
- Both teams scored in all 5 of Pachuca's home league matches.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Cruz Azul's 14 competitive matches.
- Pachuca scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches.
- Cruz Azul scored in 11 of 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' first-half averages point to at least one goal before the break.
- Pachuca's matches average 1.6 first-half goals (0.6 for, 1.0 against).
- Cruz Azul's matches average 1.57 first-half goals (0.93 for, 0.64 against).
- Pachuca's 5 home league matches average 2.0 first-half goals (0.6 for, 1.4 against).
- Cruz Azul's 5 away league matches average 1.6 first-half goals (0.6 for, 1.0 against).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' combined yellow-card average is near the line and recent matches were busy for the referee.
- Pachuca average 2.79 yellow cards; Cruz Azul average 1.92, a combined 4.71.
- Pachuca's latest match produced 6 yellow cards; Cruz Azul's produced 5.
- Pachuca's opponents average 2.5 yellow cards; Cruz Azul's opponents average 2.15.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W1-2Cruz AzulvCF PachucaApr 5, 2026LIG

W0-1CF PachucavCruz AzulSep 13, 2025LIG

L2-1Cruz AzulvCF PachucaFeb 9, 2025LIG

W2-4CF PachucavCruz AzulSep 29, 2024LIG

W0-1Cruz AzulvCF PachucaJan 14, 2024LIG

Pachuca: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga MX 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Pachuca	12	3	4	5	19-16	13	LDLDW
5	Cruz Azul Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	12	6	2	4	27-21	20	WDDLW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Pachuca

L1-2MonterreyOct 19LIG

D3-3NecaxaOct 11LIG

L0-1Santos LagunaSep 27LIG

D2-2Club TijuanaSep 21LIG

W3-0Atlante FCSep 12LIG

W2-0FC JuarezSep 5LIG

D1-1Guadalajara ChivasAug 29LIG

D1-1Atletico San LuisAug 23LIG

L2-3PueblaAug 18LIG

W1-0CharlotteAug 11LEA

L1-2Columbus CrewAug 7LEA

L1-3FC CincinnatiAug 4LEA

L0-1LeonAug 2LIG

L1-2Club QueretaroJul 27LIG

W3-0U.N.A.M. - PumasJul 18LIG

Cruz Azul

W5-0FC JuarezOct 18LIG

D3-3U.N.A.M. - PumasOct 12LIG

D0-0Club AmericaOct 2FRI

D3-3TolucaSep 26LIG

L0-1MonterreySep 20LIG

L0-2Inter MiamiSep 17CAM

W4-3Club AmericaSep 13LIG

W1-0Santos LagunaSep 6LIG

W3-1NecaxaAug 29LIG

L0-2AtlasAug 23LIG

L1-2Club TijuanaAug 17LIG

L1-2Chicago FireAug 14LEA

W2-1New York City FCAug 9LEA

W1-0Philadelphia UnionAug 7LEA

L2-3Atlante FCAug 2LIG

Squad & Injuries

Pachuca

34 available

Attackers11

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Cruz Azul

41 available

Attackers11

Midfielders12

Defenders13

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Cruz Azul

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Pachuca

Cruz Azul

Squad & Injuries

Pachuca

Cruz Azul