II Liga - EastFull time

Predictions graded

Znicz Pruszkow1Rekord Bielsko Biala0

HT 0–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Znicz Pruszków, top of II Liga East, meet a Rekord Bielsko-Biała side that has lost three of six away games but won three of its last five.

The home side are the likelier winners, with 26 points from 11 matches and 2.25 goals a game. No reviewed price offers anything: Znicz are 1.8, the draw-or-Rekord double chance 1.91, Over 2.5 goals 1.53 and both teams to score 1.57.

Context

Rekord's league season splits sharply by venue: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats away with 5 scored and 8 conceded, against 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat at home with 11 scored and 4 conceded. That travel record is the main reason the leaders are favoured, and it fits the low-scoring away games. The counterweight is their current form: three wins in the last five league matches, so the split is not a hard rule.
- League table: Rekord Bielsko Biała are 7th on 17 points from 11 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses), with 16 scored and 12 conceded.
- Away in the league: 6 played, 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 5 scored, 8 conceded.
- At home in the league: 5 played, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 11 scored, 4 conceded.
Znicz average 2.0 goals and concede 1.125 per home game, but they have kept just one clean sheet in eight home matches, conceding in seven. Their home wins have therefore tended to be high-scoring rather than controlled, which gives Rekord a modest route into the game. The counterpoint is that Znicz still won five of those eight home matches.
- Home record: 8 matches tracked, 5 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- Znicz scored in 7 of 8 home matches and conceded in 7 of 8, with both teams scoring in 6 and 1 clean sheet.
- Home averages: 2.0 goals for and 1.125 against per match.
Znicz Pruszków are through to the Polish Cup's second round, where the official draw places them at home to 1. Liga side Ruch Chorzów on 28 October, one of 16 ties in the round. That adds a midweek first-team fixture against higher-division opposition to a club already leading the II Liga. Because it falls ten days after this league match, any effect on selection here is possible but unconfirmed. The tie is a notable achievement in itself for a second-tier side and explains why the club's fixture list is busier than the league table alone shows.
- The official STS Puchar Polski account published the second-round schedule on 14 October 2026, listing Znicz Pruszków – Ruch Chorzów for 28 October 2026 at 17:30.
- The tie is one of 16 second-round matches, with the winner advancing toward the final at PGE Narodowy.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest
Znicz Pruszków head into round 12 as the II Liga leaders, three points clear of GKS Tychy, after a 1-0 win at Zawisza Bydgoszcz on 11 October. The cushion is small enough that a home fixture against mid-table Rekord Bielsko-Biała carries real weight in the promotion race. The table already shows the positions, so this is stakes context rather than a new fitness or selection development. No source indicates complacency, rotation or a change of approach for the match.
- Piłka Nożna reported on 13 October 2026 that Znicz Pruszków top the II Liga about a third into the season after winning at Zawisza Bydgoszcz.
- Tadeusz Danisz noted on 11 October 2026 that Znicz's win left GKS Tychy second, three points behind the leaders.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Znicz Pruszkow or Draw

1.25fair 1.27

BetBugs 79% · Market 80%

−1.0ppshort

The league leaders score freely at home, while Rekord have lost more away games than they have won and score less than a goal a game on the road. Both sides have shown they can be held, and Rekord's away games have been low-scoring enough to stay tight.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

At least one side is very likely to be kept out before half-time given Rekord's quiet openings.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

−12.0ppshort

Znicz's home first halves have averaged close to two goals combined, making at least one goal likely.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Znicz Pruszkow

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

−0.6ppshort

The league leaders score freely at home, while Rekord have lost more away games than they have won and score less than a goal a game on the road.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

−10.4ppshort

Znicz's home games are high-scoring and their attack is prolific, which raises the chance of three or more goals.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

−8.7ppshort

Znicz concede regularly at home and Rekord generally find a goal, so both teams scoring is more likely than not.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The league leaders score freely at home, while Rekord have lost more away games than they have won and score less than a goal a game on the road.
- Znicz Pruszkow: 9 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 12 competitive matches, 2.25 goals scored per game.
- Znicz home split: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 2.0 scored and 1.125 conceded per home game.
- Rekord Bielsko Biala away split: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, 0.71 scored and 1.57 conceded per away game.
- League table: Znicz 1st on 26 points; Rekord 7th on 17 points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZnicz PruszkowEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Znicz start home games relatively well while Rekord rarely lead at half-time on the road.
- Znicz home first-half goals for average: 1.0.
- Rekord away first-half goals against average: 0.571.
- Rekord away first-half goals for average: 0.286.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostZnicz PruszkowEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Znicz score consistently after the break at home while Rekord concede late on their travels.
- Znicz home second-half goals for average: 1.0.
- Rekord away second-half goals against average: 1.0.
- Rekord away second-half goals for average: 0.428.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonZnicz PruszkowEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
The league leaders score freely at home, while Rekord have lost more away games than they have won and score less than a goal a game on the road. Both sides have shown they can be held, and Rekord's away games have been low-scoring enough to stay tight.
- Znicz Pruszkow: 9 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 12 competitive matches, 2.25 goals scored per game.
- Znicz home split: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 2.0 scored and 1.125 conceded per home game.
- Znicz have drawn 2 of 12 competitive matches, including 1-1 at home to Tychy 71.
- Rekord have drawn 2 of 12, most recently 1-1 at home to Sandecja.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonZnicz Pruszkow or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Znicz start home games relatively well while Rekord rarely lead at half-time on the road. Neither side dominates the opening period statistically, so a level first half is a strong possibility.
- Znicz home first-half goals for average: 1.0.
- Rekord away first-half goals against average: 0.571.
- Rekord overall first-half goals for and against both average 0.5.
- Znicz home first-half goals against average: 0.75.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonZnicz Pruszkow or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals4 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Znicz's home games are high-scoring and their attack is prolific, which raises the chance of three or more goals.
- Znicz home average: 2.0 goals for, 1.125 against (3.13 combined).
- Rekord away average: 0.71 goals for, 1.57 against (2.28 combined).
- Five of Znicz's last six league matches finished with three or more goals.
- Znicz score 2.25 per game across all 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Znicz concede regularly at home and Rekord generally find a goal, so both teams scoring is more likely than not.
- Znicz both teams scored in 9 of 12 competitive matches.
- Rekord both teams scored in 6 of 12 competitive matches.
- Znicz home clean sheets: 1 in 8.
- Rekord away scoring average: 0.71 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Znicz average two goals at home and have produced multi-goal home games recently.
- Znicz score 2.0 goals per home game.
- Znicz scored in 7 of 8 home matches tracked.
- Znicz scored 4 goals in two of their last three home league matches.
- Rekord concede 1.57 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostZnicz Pruszkow over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rekord's away scoring rate points strongly to one goal or none.
- Rekord score 0.71 goals per away game.
- Rekord have scored 5 goals in 6 league away matches.
- Znicz home goals against average is 1.125.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRekord Bielsko Biala under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Znicz rarely keep clean sheets at home, so Rekord scoring is the more likely outcome.
- Znicz conceded in 7 of 8 home matches.
- Znicz home goals against average: 1.125.
- Rekord scored in the majority of their away matches (4 goals in 7).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRekord Bielsko Biala to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Znicz have scored in almost every match and average two at home, so Rekord conceding is very likely.
- Znicz scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches.
- Znicz home goals for average: 2.0.
- Rekord away goals against average: 1.57.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZnicz Pruszkow to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Because Znicz usually concede, a win-to-nil is the less likely side of this market.
- Znicz conceded in 7 of 8 home matches.
- Znicz have drawn 2 and lost 1 of 12 competitive matches.
- Rekord scored in most of their away matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Znicz's home first halves have averaged close to two goals combined, making at least one goal likely.
- Znicz home first-half goals for average: 1.0.
- Znicz home first-half goals against average: 0.75.
- Rekord away first-half goals for average: 0.286.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
At least one side is very likely to be kept out before half-time given Rekord's quiet openings.
- Rekord away first-half goals for average: 0.286.
- Rekord have scored just 0.5 first-half goals per game overall.
- Znicz first-half goals against average: 0.583 overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' second-half numbers point to a total around one goal more often than not.
- Znicz home second-half goals against average: 0.375.
- Rekord away second-half goals for average: 0.428.
- Rekord second-half goals against average away: 1.0.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Znicz Pruszkow	11	8	2	1	24-12	26	WWWDW
7	Rekord Bielsko Biala	11	5	2	4	16-12	17	DLWWW

9pt gap between teamsZnicz Pruszkow leads the league

Recent Form

Znicz Pruszkow

W1-0Zawisza BydgoszczOct 11II

W4-2Stal Stalowa WolaOct 4II

W3-1Lechia Zielona GóraSep 19II

D1-1Tychy 71Sep 11II

W4-2Hutnik KrakówSep 6II

W3-2Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 29II

D1-1Świt SkolwinAug 22II

L0-1Olimpia GrudziądzAug 16II

W4-1Chojniczanka ChojniceAug 9II

W3-1ŁKS Łódź IIAug 5CUP

W2-1Legia Warszawa IIJul 31II

W1-0Resovia RzeszówJul 24II

D2-2SwitJul 18FRI

L1-2Chojniczanka ChojniceJul 10FRI

W4-1Mławianka MławaJul 3FRI

Rekord Bielsko Biala

D1-1Sandecja Nowy SączOct 9II

L1-2Podhale Nowy TargOct 3II

W3-0Świt SkolwinSep 18II

W1-0Avia ŚwidnikSep 13II

W2-1Legia Warszawa IISep 6II

L0-1Górnik ŁęcznaAug 30II

L1-2Olimpia GrudziądzAug 23II

L0-3Sokół KleczewAug 15II

W3-1Stal Stalowa WolaAug 8II

L0-3Sandecja Nowy SączAug 5CUP

W3-0Zawisza BydgoszczAug 2II

D1-1Lechia Zielona GóraJul 25II

D0-0Goczałkowice ZdrójJul 18FRI

D1-1Wiślanie JaśkowiceJul 11FRI

W1-0Sigma Olomouc IIJul 8FRI

Squad & Injuries

Znicz Pruszkow

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders17

Defenders2

Goalkeeper3

Rekord Bielsko Biala

29 available

Attackers10

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2