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Predictions graded

CR Temouchent1Chlef1

HT 0–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 15:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Two of the bottom three meet with neither side having won more than once in five league rounds.

Temouchent's home record and Chlef's seven away matches without a win point to a narrow home victory. The 1.62 on both teams not scoring is the only quoted price worth taking.

Context

The ban is dated 15 October, three days before this fixture, and it followed a provisional suspension opened on 11 October, so Témouchent go into the Chlef match knowing a senior defender cannot be selected. For a club in its first top-flight season, with a squad assembled largely from lower-division football, losing a defender for six matches is a structural constraint rather than a one-off reshuffle. The counterpoint is usage: available coverage does not establish whether Bouziane started the opening rounds, so the cost is best read as reduced defensive depth and a forced reorganisation, not the confirmed loss of an ever-present.
- A CR Témouchent defender was banned for six matches on 15 October over an obscene gesture made after the league defeat at MC Alger.
- He had been suspended provisionally on 11 October pending a hearing, and apologised for the gesture before the sanction was set.
- The gesture followed the 9 October away match at MC Alger, which Témouchent lost 0-1.
- L. Bouziane started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:51 · Europe/Bucharest
The 14 October home defeat was Témouchent's second consecutive loss and it ended with the side a man short, coming immediately after the six-match ban given to a Témouchent defender on 15 October. Two availability problems in the same unit inside a week is the relevant pressure point for a promoted club with limited top-flight cover. The limitation is identification: coverage of the Rouisset match does not name the dismissed player, so this should be treated as an additional unresolved absence for the Chlef fixture rather than a specific one-for-one replacement problem.
- CR Témouchent lost 0-2 at home to MB Rouisset on 14 October, four days before facing Chlef.
- A red card in that match left the home side short-handed and turned the game.
ReportedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 15:51 · Europe/Bucharest
Chlef have taken one point from seven away matches between 28 February and 9 October 2026, scoring three goals, conceding 1.71 per game and keeping no clean sheet on the road. That run includes a 0-2 loss at MC Alger on 5 June and a 0-1 at JS Kabylie on 9 October. Temouchent, with five clean sheets in eight home matches, are the immediate test of it.
- Away split over seven matches from 28 February to 9 October 2026: no wins, one draw, six defeats.
- Three goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game across those seven away matches, with no away clean sheet.
- Most recent away match: a 0-1 defeat at JS Kabylie on 9 October 2026.
Five league rounds have produced one win, two goals scored and six conceded, with the victory coming at home. The eight-match home split of 6W-1D-1L with five clean sheets includes last season's promotion run, so it reads stronger than the current top-flight scoring. Chlef's three goals in seven away matches completes the low-scoring case.
- Ligue 1 after five rounds: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 2 goals scored, 6 conceded, 4 points, 13th of 16.
- Home league record in the same five rounds: 3 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat, 2 goals for, 3 against.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

−7.0ppshort

Chlef create very little away from home and Témouchent's home matches have been low-scoring, making three goals unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Témouchent have been solid at home while Chlef have lost six of seven away and score barely a goal every two games on the road.
- Témouchent home split: 6W-1D-1L in 8 matches, 1.5 goals for and 0.63 against
- Chlef away split: 0W-1D-6L in 7, three goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Chlef have 0 wins and 4 goals in 5 league rounds (rank 14)
- Témouchent kept five clean sheets in eight home matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCR TemouchentEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Both teams produce very little before half-time, with neither averaging even a goal per game in first halves.
- Témouchent first-half goals for at home: 0.5, against 0.125
- Chlef first-half goals for away: 0.14
- Chlef scored once in seven away first halves
- Témouchent's 0-2 home loss included a half-time deficit
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Témouchent do most of their scoring after the break at home while Chlef fade in second halves on the road.
- Témouchent second-half goals for at home: 1.0 per game
- Chlef second-half goals against away: 0.71 per game
- Chlef second-half goals for away: 0.29 per game
- Témouchent's last home loss came with both goals conceded after half-time
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCR TemouchentEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Témouchent have been solid at home while Chlef have lost six of seven away and score barely a goal every two games on the road. Both attacks are limited and Chlef have already drawn three times this season, so a low-scoring share of the points is plausible.
- Témouchent home split: 6W-1D-1L in 8 matches, 1.5 goals for and 0.63 against
- Chlef away split: 0W-1D-6L in 7, three goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game
- Témouchent overall: 9W-2D-4L in 15
- Chlef overall: 4W-3D-8L in 15, including a 3-3 home draw
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCR Temouchent or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chlef concede a first-half goal per away game while scoring almost none before the break, giving Témouchent the better early platform. Both teams produce very little before half-time, with neither averaging even a goal per game in first halves.
- Témouchent first-half goals for at home: 0.5 per game
- Chlef first-half goals against away: 1.0 per game
- Témouchent first-half goals for at home: 0.5, against 0.125
- Chlef first-half goals for away: 0.14
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCR Temouchent or DrawEstimated chance86%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Chlef create very little away from home and Témouchent's home matches have been low-scoring, making three goals unlikely.
- Témouchent home: 1.5 goals for, 0.63 against per game
- Chlef away: 0.43 goals for, 1.71 against per game
- Chlef overall: 10 scored and 12 conceded in 15 matches
- Combined away/home scoring rate points to roughly two goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Témouchent's home defence has been tight and Chlef rarely find the net on their travels, so at least one side is likely to be shut out.
- Témouchent: both teams scored in 2 of 8 home matches, 5 clean sheets
- Chlef: 3 goals in 7 away matches and no away clean sheet
- Chlef scored in only a minority of their away fixtures
- Témouchent concede 0.63 per home game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Témouchent's home average is built on a promotion run, and their top-flight scoring has been one goal or fewer per game.
- Témouchent home goals for: 1.5 per game across 8 matches
- Témouchent have scored 2 goals in 5 league matches (0.4 per game)
- Only 7 goals scored in 8 home matches
- Chlef concede 1.71 per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCR Temouchent under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chlef have managed three away goals all season against a home defence conceding well under one a game.
- Chlef away goals for: 0.43 per game, three goals in 7 matches
- Témouchent concede 0.63 per home game with 5 clean sheets in 8
- Chlef have 4 goals in 5 league rounds
- Chlef have not scored more than once away in the tracked window
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonChlef under 1.5Estimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chlef do find a goal in a fair share of away games, and Témouchent have conceded in three home fixtures.
- Chlef scored in 3 of their 7 away matches
- Chlef have 10 goals in 15 matches overall
- Témouchent conceded in 3 of 8 home matches
- Chlef drew 1-1 in their most recent match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonChlef to scoreEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even if Témouchent win, Chlef have enough away scoring to spoil the shutout, and the home side's league form is patchy.
- Témouchent have won 9 of 15 but only 1 of 5 league matches
- Chlef scored in 3 of 7 away matches
- Témouchent conceded in 3 of 8 home matches
- Témouchent's last home league game ended 0-2
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams are usually quiet, but Témouchent's last home match did produce an early goal.
- Témouchent first-half goals for at home: 0.5; against 0.125
- Chlef first-half goals for away: 0.14; against 1.0
- Chlef scored one first-half goal in seven away matches
- Témouchent's last home game had a 0-1 half-time score
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring rates of both sides point to one goal or fewer in the closing 45 minutes.
- Témouchent second-half goals at home: 1.0 for, 0.5 against
- Chlef second-half figures away: 0.29 for, 0.71 against
- Combined second-half rate is about 1.25 goals per game
- Chlef have 0.47 second-half goals against on average overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance64%

League Table

Ligue 1 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	CR Temouchent	5	1	1	3	2-6	4	LLWLD
14	Chlef Relegation - Ligue 2	5	0	2	3	4-9	2	DLLLD

2pt gap between teamsChlef in relegation zone

Recent Form

CR Temouchent

L0-2MB RouissetOct 14L1

L0-1MC AlgerOct 9L1

W1-0JS KabylieSep 17L1

L0-2MC OranSep 11L1

D1-1CS ConstantineSep 5L1

W1-0US ChaouiaMay 20LIG

W2-0WA TlemcenMay 8LIG

W1-0TiaretMay 1LIG

W1-0RC ArbaApr 25LIG

W2-1Hussein DeyApr 18LIG

W3-2JS TixeraineApr 10LIG

L0-1JS El BiarApr 4LIG

W3-0Béchar DjedidMar 27LIG

D0-0KoléaMar 14LIG

W2-1CRB AdrarMar 7LIG

Chlef

D1-1MC AlgerOct 13L1

L0-1JS KabylieOct 9L1

L0-1MC OranSep 18L1

L0-3CS ConstantineSep 12L1

D3-3CR BelouizdadSep 5L1

L0-2MC AlgerJun 5L1

L1-2JS KabylieMay 20L1

L0-1MC OranMay 7L1

W1-0Olympique AkbouApr 17L1

L1-2Ben AknounApr 10L1

W2-1USM AlgerApr 5L1

L1-2CR BelouizdadMar 18L1

W1-0MostaganemMar 13L1

W1-0ES SetifMar 6L1

D1-1MB RouissetFeb 28L1

Squad & Injuries

CR Temouchent

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Chlef

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

CR Temouchent

Under 2.5

Draw

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 8 landed

League Table

Recent Form

CR Temouchent

Chlef

Squad & Injuries

CR Temouchent

Chlef