FA CupFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Harborough Town3Spennymoor Town1

HT 1–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 21–11On targetOn target 10–6CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 · Europe/Bucharest

A fourth qualifying round tie where Harborough's six wins in eight at home meet a Spennymoor side with one win in seven away but four goals in each FA Cup tie.

Harborough are the likelier winners over 90 minutes, yet 1.70 asks a lot for a one-off cup tie. The price that stands out is 2.00 on Spennymoor to avoid defeat, draw or win.

Context

Spennymoor are under a manager barely three weeks into the job, which makes their selection and shape for a one-off cup tie harder to read than a settled side's. Hartley's only FA Cup tie in charge produced a 4-1 home win over Chester on 3 October, while his first league away match ended 2-1 at Brackley Town on 10 October. That sample is too small to establish a preferred system or rotation, and the practical effect is genuine uncertainty about how Spennymoor will set up at The Beehive rather than a clear edge either way. The tie is his first away cup assignment with the club.
- Peter Hartley was appointed Spennymoor Town First Team Manager on 29 September 2026.
- His first match in charge was a 4-1 FA Cup third qualifying round home win over Chester on 3 October 2026.
- He moved to Spennymoor Town from Kerala Blasters in India.
- Spennymoor Town lost 2-1 away at Brackley Town on 10 October 2026 in his first league away match.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:59 · Europe/Bucharest
This tie is the final qualifying hurdle before the FA Cup First Round Proper, the stage at which the professional clubs enter, so the prize is a step change in profile for two sixth-tier sides. Both arrive with third qualifying round wins from 3 October, Harborough 3-2 at home to St Albans City and Spennymoor 4-1 at home to Chester. It is a one-off knockout tie rather than the league meeting between the same two National League North clubs, which can change how cautiously both approach it. Kick-off is 3.00pm at The Beehive (LE16 9HF).
- Harborough Town host Spennymoor Town in the FA Cup fourth qualifying round on Saturday 17 October 2026, kicking off at 3.00pm at The Beehive (LE16 9HF).
- The winners take a place in the FA Cup First Round Proper.
- Both clubs play in National League North.
- Both reached this round with third qualifying round wins on 3 October 2026: Harborough Town 3-2 at home to St Albans City and Spennymoor Town 4-1 at home to Chester.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:59 · Europe/BucharestHarborough Town FC fixture pageharboroughtownfc.org · 7 Oct 2026
Harborough Town's club captain has been missing through the recent run, and the manager's post-match update pointed to a longer wait rather than an imminent return. The reference point is the 10 October 1-0 league win over Southport, when a teammate wore the armband in his absence. Losing a captain and senior midfielder matters for how a sixth-tier side organises in a knockout tie, though the available material does not state the nature of the problem or a recovery timeline, so he remains an uncertainty rather than a confirmed absentee.
- Connor Kennedy is Harborough Town's club captain and has been absent from the side.
- Harborough Town's manager has placed Kennedy in the group that may have to wait longer for a return.
- A teammate wore the captain's armband in the 10 October 2026 1-0 win over Southport in Kennedy's absence.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:59 · Europe/Bucharest
An FA Cup qualifying tie sits outside normal season-ticket entitlements, and Harborough have set this one up as a segregated, advance-sales-only fixture with a bigger than usual crowd anticipated at The Beehive. A fuller and more partisan ground is a real playing condition for a sixth-tier club whose most recent home league gate was 860, against Southport on 10 October. Season tickets and coach or player passes will not be accepted, and away supporters cannot buy on the day, which may trim late travelling numbers from County Durham. Prices and the away allocation are not stated in the available material.
- Segregation will be in operation for the 17 October 2026 tie at The Beehive.
- Season tickets and coach or player passes are not valid for the tie.
- Away tickets are online only, with no sales on the gate.
- Tickets went on sale at 8pm on Thursday 8 October 2026, with a bumper crowd expected.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:59 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.17fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 85.5%

−3.5ppshort

First-half goals are scarce for both sides, so a split first half is unlikely.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Harborough Town or Draw

1.17fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85.5%

−10.5ppshort

Harborough start home games solidly while Spennymoor often concede early on the road. Both sides score little before the break, making a level first half the most likely result.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

−6.9ppshort

Spennymoor's away first halves are busy and at least one early goal is common.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.73fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 57.8%

−5.8ppshort

Spennymoor find the net most weeks, though Harborough's home defence is hard to break.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.96

BetBugs 51% · Market 57.8%

−6.8ppshort

Spennymoor's away matches have produced goals and their cup ties have been high-scoring.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Harborough Town

1.70fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 58.8%

−13.8ppshort

Harborough have won six of eight at home and concede little there, while Spennymoor have won just once on the road.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.70
The read
Harborough have won six of eight at home and concede little there, while Spennymoor have won just once on the road.
- Harborough home record: 6W 1D 1L in 8
- Harborough home: 1.5 goals for and 1.0 against per game
- Spennymoor away record: 1W 2D 4L in 7
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarborough TownEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both sides score little before the break, making a level first half the most likely result.
- Harborough home first-half goals for 0.5
- Harborough home first-half goals against 0.375
- Spennymoor away first-half goals for 0.43
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Harborough score more after the break at home and Spennymoor concede little late away.
- Harborough second-half goals for 1.0 at home
- Harborough second-half goals against 0.625 at home
- Spennymoor away second-half goals against 0.57
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonHarborough TownEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harborough have won six of eight at home and concede little there, while Spennymoor have won just once on the road. Two teams from the same division and Spennymoor's habit of drawing keep this fixture close.
- Harborough home record: 6W 1D 1L in 8
- Harborough home: 1.5 goals for and 1.0 against per game
- Spennymoor drew 4 of 13 competitive matches
- Both clubs compete in National League North
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHarborough Town or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Harborough start home games solidly while Spennymoor often concede early on the road. Both sides score little before the break, making a level first half the most likely result.
- Harborough first-half goals for 0.5 at home
- Harborough first-half goals against 0.375 at home
- Harborough home first-half goals for 0.5
- Harborough home first-half goals against 0.375
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHarborough Town or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.73
The read
Spennymoor's away matches have produced goals and their cup ties have been high-scoring.
- Spennymoor away: 1.43 scored and 1.86 conceded per game
- Harborough home: 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game
- Spennymoor scored four in each of their last two FA Cup ties
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Spennymoor find the net most weeks, though Harborough's home defence is hard to break.
- Spennymoor scored in 12 of 13 matches
- Harborough kept four clean sheets in eight home games
- Harborough both teams scored in 6 of 13
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Harborough's home goals come in small numbers and rarely reach two.
- Harborough average 1.5 goals per home game
- Harborough failed to score in two of eight home games
- Spennymoor concede 1.86 per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHarborough Town under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Spennymoor's away scoring has been limited and Harborough defend well at home.
- Spennymoor average 1.43 goals per away game
- Spennymoor scored 12 in 13 overall
- Harborough kept four clean sheets at home
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSpennymoor Town under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Spennymoor's consistent scoring makes a Harborough clean sheet unlikely.
- Spennymoor scored in 12 of 13 matches
- Harborough kept four clean sheets in eight home games
- Spennymoor scored four in two FA Cup ties
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSpennymoor Town to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Harborough's regular home scoring points to Spennymoor conceding.
- Spennymoor kept one clean sheet in seven away games
- Harborough scored in six of eight home games
- Harborough average 1.5 goals per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHarborough Town to scoreEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spennymoor's frequent scoring makes a Harborough win without conceding unlikely.
- Spennymoor scored in 12 of 13 matches
- Harborough won 6 of 8 at home
- Spennymoor failed to score in two of seven away games
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Spennymoor's away first halves are busy and at least one early goal is common.
- Spennymoor away first-half total 1.71 goals per game
- Harborough home first-half total 0.875 goals per game
- Spennymoor scored three first-half goals against Chester
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
First-half goals are scarce for both sides, so a split first half is unlikely.
- Harborough home first-half goals for 0.5
- Spennymoor away first-half goals for 0.43
- Harborough home first-half goals against 0.375
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals sit close to one and a half, with Spennymoor defending well late away.
- Spennymoor away second-half goals against 0.57
- Harborough home second-half goals against 0.625
- Both combined second-half totals near 1.6 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Recent Form

Harborough Town

W1-0SouthportOct 10NAT

W3-2St Albans CityOct 3FAC

L0-1MacclesfieldSep 26NAT

W1-0Rushall OlympicSep 19FAC

D0-0AFC Telford UnitedSep 12NAT

L0-3HerefordSep 8NAT

L0-1Brackley TownSep 5NAT

W2-1MarineAug 31NAT

L1-2Hednesford TownAug 28NAT

W4-2Darlington 1883Aug 22NAT

D1-1Oxford CityAug 18NAT

W1-0MorecambeAug 15NAT

D1-1King's Lynn TownAug 8NAT

D2-2QuornJul 25FRI

D4-4Real BedfordJul 11FRI

Spennymoor Town

L1-2Brackley TownOct 10NAT

W4-1ChesterOct 3FAC

D2-2SouthportSep 26NAT

W4-0AFC EmleySep 19FAC

D1-1MacclesfieldSep 12NAT

L1-3Spalding UnitedSep 8NAT

L1-2HerefordSep 5NAT

D1-1Hednesford TownAug 31NAT

L1-3Bedford TownAug 29NAT

L1-4Oxford CityAug 22NAT

L0-3Scarborough AthleticAug 18NAT

W2-1Merthyr TownAug 15NAT

D1-1MorecambeAug 8NAT

W2-1GatesheadAug 1FRI

L1-3FC Halifax TownJul 25FRI

Squad & Injuries

Harborough Town

10 available

Attackers2

Midfielders4

Defenders3

Goalkeeper1

Spennymoor Town

18 available

Attackers5

Midfielders5

Defenders7

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Spennymoor Town

No

Harborough Town or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Over 2.5

Harborough Town

Draw

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 10 landed

Recent Form

Harborough Town

Spennymoor Town

Squad & Injuries

Harborough Town

Spennymoor Town