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Predictions graded

Oldham Athletic4Leeds United U212

HT 1–1Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges0–20%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 18–10On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Both won their EFL Trophy opener, and a Boundary Park victory would leave either side well placed to progress.

Oldham's poor league run meets a Leeds United U21 side that has scored freely, though the visitors lost 0-1 at Tamworth on 6 October. Oldham are the marginal pick to win, but two quoted prices carry potential value: Under 2.5 goals at 3.2 and Leeds United U21 at 5.5. Oldham at 1.43 and Over 2.5 at 1.3 are best left alone.

Context

Mills signed his first professional two-year contract in the summer and plays across midfield and the flank, having made 14 under-21 appearances last season. Because Leeds' remaining group fixture is at Boundary Park, that attacking profile is the closest available guide to how the under-21 side will be built in this competition. Oldham Athletic kept a clean sheet in their own 1-0 group win over Fleetwood Town, a different test from the high-scoring game at Barnsley. Under-21 selection shifts with first-team and Premier League 2 demands, so his involvement at Oldham is plausible rather than assured.
- Scored a hat-trick in Leeds United U21's 4-3 EFL Trophy group-stage win at Barnsley on 22 September 2026.
- Became the youngest hat-trick scorer in EFL Trophy history at 18 years and three days old.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Only the top two of each four-team EFL Trophy group advance, so a win at Boundary Park puts the victor in a strong position with one group fixture remaining. Oldham are a League Two side whose recent wins have been scarce, while Leeds are an under-21 team balancing the Trophy with Premier League 2 and Premier League Cup commitments. That difference in priority is the main uncertainty: how seriously each side treats the tie cannot be read from the standings alone.
- Oldham Athletic won 1-0 against Fleetwood Town in the EFL Trophy group stage on 22 September 2026.
- Leeds United U21 won 4-3 away at Barnsley in the same group on 22 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:21 · Europe/BucharestEFL Trophy match pagewww.espn.com · 22 Sep 2026Fixtures and results live pagewww.bbc.com · 13 Oct 2026
Oldham's home matches are the basis for expecting a tight, low-scoring night, and this result is the clearest counterpoint to it. They out-shot Salford and took 11 corners to five, but only three of their 18 attempts were on target while Salford scored four from seven. The evidence shows a home side capable of creating volume without converting it, and vulnerable when the visiting finishing is sharper.
- Oldham Athletic lost 1-4 at home to Salford City in League Two on 26 September 2026.
- Oldham had 18 shots and three on target; Salford City had 16 shots and seven on target.
- Oldham took 11 corners to Salford City's five.
Leeds' under-21s score early and heavily away from home, which is the main threat to a low-scoring read of this tie. They led 3-1 at the break at Middlesbrough before conceding three after it, so both their fast starts and their second-half vulnerability are on the record. Oldham's own recent games have been much quieter, making this the clearest contrast in the fixture.
- Leeds United U21 drew 4-4 away at Middlesbrough U21 in Premier League 2 Division One on 13 September 2026.
- Leeds led 3-1 at half-time, with three first-half goals, before the game finished 4-4.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oldham have been hard to score against at home and carry senior-league experience, giving them the better base at Boundary Park.
- Oldham are 3W-1D-2L at home with four clean sheets in six home matches
- Leeds U21 are 2W-2D-5L away with eight goals conceded in nine away matches
- Oldham beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 in their EFL Trophy opener
- Leeds U21 won 4-3 at Barnsley in the same group
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOldham AthleticEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring for Oldham points to a tight opening period.
- Oldham average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.45 against
- Oldham have scored one first-half goal in their last six
- Oldham's last six include goalless first halves
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Oldham have been stronger after the break at home.
- Oldham average 0.55 second-half goals for and 0.91 against
- Oldham scored after half-time in their 1-0 EFL Trophy win
- Oldham's home second-half record is 1.0 for and 0.5 against
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonOldham AthleticEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Oldham have been hard to score against at home and carry senior-league experience, giving them the better base at Boundary Park. Leeds U21 are in strong attacking form and have already won away against senior opposition in this competition.
- Oldham are 3W-1D-2L at home with four clean sheets in six home matches
- Leeds U21 are 2W-2D-5L away with eight goals conceded in nine away matches
- Leeds U21 have won four of their last six, scoring 16 goals
- Leeds U21 scored four in a 4-3 EFL Trophy win at Barnsley
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOldham Athletic or Leeds United U21Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring for Oldham points to a tight opening period. Leeds U21 have started recent matches strongly and score early.
- Oldham average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.45 against
- Oldham have scored one first-half goal in their last six
- Leeds U21's last six matches produced 15 first-half goals
- Leeds U21 scored three first-half goals at Barnsley
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Leeds United U21Estimated chance71%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Oldham's matches have been low-scoring, especially at home, and their home defence has been tight.
- Oldham have scored 7 and conceded 7 in 11 competitive matches
- Oldham's six home matches produced seven goals in total
- Four of Oldham's last six matches stayed under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Oldham's home matches have often been settled without both teams scoring.
- Oldham kept four clean sheets in six home matches
- Oldham have scored 7 goals in 11 competitive matches
- Leeds U21 kept three clean sheets in 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leeds U21's recent scoring makes it likely Oldham concede at least once.
- Leeds U21 scored 16 goals in their last six
- Leeds U21 scored four away at Barnsley in the EFL Trophy
- Oldham conceded in four of their last six
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLeeds United U21 to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leeds U21 concede regularly enough that an Oldham goal is more likely than not.
- Leeds U21 conceded in five of their last six
- Leeds U21 kept three clean sheets in 15 matches
- Oldham scored in three of their last six
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonOldham Athletic to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leeds U21's quick starts make at least one first-half goal likely.
- Oldham's matches average 0.81 first-half goals
- Leeds U21's last six matches produced 15 first-half goals
- Oldham's first-half goals for and against combine to 0.81 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Oldham's low first-half scoring makes an early goal from both sides unlikely.
- Oldham have scored one first-half goal in their last six
- Oldham average 0.36 first-half goals for
- Both teams scored in the first half of only two of Leeds U21's last six
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Oldham's home matches have tended to stay low-scoring after the break.
- Oldham's second halves average 1.46 goals
- Oldham home second halves produce 1.5 goals
- Oldham's last six include several single-goal second halves
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides pick up cards regularly, making three or more likely.
- Oldham average 1.6 yellow cards and their opponents 2.4
- Leeds U21's tracked matches average 2.0 yellow cards per side
- Oldham's last six include a match with three yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance64%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W2-3OldhamvLeeds United U21Sep 28, 2021EFL

5 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Oldham Athletic

D0-0Accrington STOct 10LEA

L1-4Salford CitySep 26LEA

W1-0Fleetwood TownSep 22EFL

L0-2RochdaleSep 19LEA

L1-2ChesterfieldSep 12LEA

L0-2TranmereSep 5LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 1LEA

W3-0Swindon TownAug 29LEA

L1-2ColchesterAug 22LEA

W2-0Port ValeAug 15LEA

L0-2Stoke CityAug 8LEA

W4-0Sheffield WednesdayAug 1FRI

L0-1Stockport CountyJul 28FRI

L1-3HuddersfieldJul 24FRI

L1-3BoltonJul 21FRI

Leeds United U21

W3-1Stockport County U21Oct 9PRE

L0-1TamworthOct 6NAT

W4-3BarnsleySep 22EFL

W2-0Newcastle United U21Sep 19PRE

D4-4Middlesbrough U21Sep 13PRE

W3-2Solihull MoorsSep 8NAT

L0-1Charlton Athletic U21Sep 4PRE

L1-2Liverpool U21Aug 30PRE

W4-3West Bromwich Albion U21Aug 23PRE

L2-5Boreham WoodAug 18NAT

D0-0Stoke City U21Aug 14PRE

L2-3Leicester City U21Apr 13PRE

L1-2Manchester United U21Apr 3PRE

L1-2Southampton U21Mar 20PRE

W1-0Tottenham Hotspur U21Mar 16PRE

Squad & Injuries

Oldham Athletic

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Leeds United U21

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4