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Predictions graded

Edinburgh City0St. Mirren B5

HT 0–1Tue 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 20:29 · Europe/Bucharest

The closing KDM Evolution Trophy group night at Edinburgh City pits a League Two first team against a St Mirren B side that has scored freely on its away cup travels but has never kept a clean sheet in its tracked sample.

Edinburgh City are the likelier winners, though their own home record leaves the draw live. The draw at 4.2 and St Mirren B avoiding defeat at 1.91 are the prices worth considering; the short goals and both-teams-to-score lines are not.

Context

St Mirren's official statement confirms the SPFL awarded Cumbernauld Colts a 3-0 win for the 26 September fixture after St Mirren B fielded an ineligible player, turning an on-field victory into a defeat. The points swing matters because it shapes how St Mirren B enter the final matchday of the KDM Evolution Trophy league phase at Edinburgh City, when the knockout places from the group are decided. St Mirren said they accepted the sanction while continuing talks with the SPFL. The club did not name the player or state any separate selection consequence, so the exact effect on Tuesday's available squad is unclear.
- St Mirren stated on 6 October 2026 that they had been sanctioned for fielding an ineligible player in the KDM Evolution Trophy match between Cumbernauld Colts and St Mirren B.
- Cumbernauld Colts were awarded a 3-0 victory as a result of the sanction.
- St Mirren said they reluctantly accepted the sanction and would continue dialogue with the SPFL over the circumstances of the player's availability.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:26 · Europe/Bucharest
This is matchday six, the last round of the competition's league phase, and both clubs arrive from the same section with their group position still to be finalised. Because the outcome helps determine who reaches the knockout round and how those teams are seeded, the 90 minutes carry tangible stakes rather than being a dead rubber. Edinburgh City's preview frames it as the closing group fixture and St Mirren's notice confirms the trip to Meadowbank. No full group table appears in the available sources, so the precise qualification arithmetic for each side is not established.
- Edinburgh City's own preview describes Tuesday's tie against St Mirren B as their final KDM Evolution Trophy group match.
- St Mirren's ticket notice confirms the fixture is their KDM Evolution Trophy match away to Edinburgh City on Tuesday night.
- Clubs across the competition, including Airdrieonians and Ross County, are playing their concluding league-phase fixtures on 13 October with knockout qualification and seeding at stake.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Every one of the 14 matches in the tracked sample has seen St Mirren B concede, so the development side has not produced a shutout. That points to Edinburgh City, who have scored in 12 of their 15 competitive matches since 1 August 2026, getting chances. The sample is small and spans several years, so it is a lean rather than a settled pattern.
- 14 matches tracked for St Mirren B between 12 October 2019 and 26 September 2026.
- No clean sheets recorded; the side conceded in all 14 matches.
Edinburgh City's official match feed confirms Grigor, who started the League Two derby against Spartans, was withdrawn before the half-hour for Tommy North because of injury. With the cup tie following three days later, the early withdrawal creates a possible hole in the defensive options McIndoe can call on for the final group match. The club has issued no update on the severity of the problem, so it is unclear whether Grigor is a genuine doubt or the change was precautionary. That uncertainty limits how far the injury should shift expectations.
- Edinburgh City's official match updates state an injury forced the first-half substitution that brought Tommy North on for Josh Grigor against Spartans on 10 October 2026.
- The change came during the 3-1 home league defeat to Spartans.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 20:26 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.15fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 87%

−9.0ppshort

Both sides have regularly scored in the opening period, making at least one first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City are a League Two first team at home against a development side that concedes heavily and has lost more than it has won.
- Edinburgh City overall 7W-4D-4L in 15 competitive matches; home 4W-2D-2L in 8
- Edinburgh City home scoring average 1.88 goals for, 1.75 against
- St Mirren B overall 5W-1D-8L in 14 tracked matches with 2.50 goals conceded per game
- St Mirren B have zero clean sheets in 14 tracked matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEdinburgh CityEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City have been strong in first halves at home, scoring early regularly and conceding little.
- Edinburgh City home first-half scoring average 1.38 goals for, 0.50 against
- Edinburgh City led at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- St Mirren B first-half conceding average 0.93 per tracked match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostEdinburgh CityEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City have leaked after the break while St Mirren B have scored regularly in second halves, especially in recent away ties.
- Edinburgh City conceded 1.25 second-half goals per home match
- St Mirren B second-half scoring average 1.07 per tracked match
- Edinburgh City lost 4 of their last 6 second halves
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSt. Mirren BEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City are a League Two first team at home against a development side that concedes heavily and has lost more than it has won. St Mirren B have shown they can score away in this cup, and Edinburgh City's home defence has conceded in most recent home games.
- Edinburgh City overall 7W-4D-4L in 15 competitive matches; home 4W-2D-2L in 8
- Edinburgh City home scoring average 1.88 goals for, 1.75 against
- St Mirren B won 5 of 14 tracked matches, all away
- Their recent cup away scoring reads 4, 5, 4 goals in three wins
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEdinburgh City or St. Mirren BEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City have been strong in first halves at home, scoring early regularly and conceding little. Both sides have frequently gone into the break level, and their first-half numbers are modest.
- Edinburgh City home first-half scoring average 1.38 goals for, 0.50 against
- Edinburgh City led at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Edinburgh City were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- St Mirren B were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostEdinburgh City or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both teams' games have produced plenty of goals, with St Mirren B especially involved in high-scoring contests.
- St Mirren B tracked matches average 4.43 total goals (1.93 for, 2.50 against)
- Edinburgh City home matches average 3.63 total goals
- Edinburgh City's recent home games included a 7-3 and a 1-3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
St Mirren B almost always concede and usually score, while Edinburgh City's home games often see both sides find the net.
- St Mirren B both scored in 11 of 14 tracked matches
- Edinburgh City both scored in 5 of 8 home matches
- St Mirren B conceded in every tracked match, recording no clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Edinburgh City's home average sits near two goals, giving them a fair chance of scoring twice against a side with no clean sheets.
- Edinburgh City home scoring average 1.88 goals per match
- Edinburgh City scored seven at home against Stirling Albion
- Edinburgh City were held to one or zero goals in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostEdinburgh City over 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Mirren B have scored consistently in recent away cup ties and face an Edinburgh City defence that concedes regularly.
- St Mirren B scoring average 1.93 goals per tracked match
- St Mirren B scored 4, 5 and 4 in three recent away cup wins
- Edinburgh City conceded in 10 of 15 matches and in 6 of 8 at home
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSt. Mirren B over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Mirren B have scored in the large majority of their tracked matches, so Edinburgh City keeping a clean sheet is the less likely path.
- St Mirren B scored in 11 of 14 tracked matches
- St Mirren B scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Edinburgh City conceded in 10 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt. Mirren B to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Mirren B have conceded in every tracked game, strongly suggesting Edinburgh City will score.
- St Mirren B conceded in every one of their 14 tracked matches
- St Mirren B conceded two or more in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Edinburgh City scored in 12 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostEdinburgh City to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Both sides have regularly scored in the opening period, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Both teams averaged roughly 1.8 first-half goals per match across their home and away splits
- Edinburgh City scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches
- St Mirren B scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have low first-half concession rates, making it unlikely that each scores before the interval.
- Edinburgh City have conceded just 0.27 first-half goals per match overall
- St Mirren B first-half conceding average is 0.93 per tracked match
- St Mirren B failed to score in the first half in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves have been high-scoring, with Edinburgh City conceding and St Mirren B involved in open finishes.
- Edinburgh City home second-half totals average 1.75 goals
- St Mirren B second-half totals average 2.64 goals per tracked match
- St Mirren B's recent second halves produced 5, 4 and 3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance68%

Recent Form

Edinburgh City

L1-3SpartansOct 10LEA

D0-0StranraerOct 3LEA

L0-2Formartine UnitedSep 26CHA

W1-0Dundee United IISep 22CHA

W3-1Kelty HeartsSep 19LEA

W7-3Stirling AlbionSep 12LEA

D1-1Queen of the SouthSep 8CHA

L2-3ClydeSep 5LEA

D1-1Forfar AthleticAug 28LEA

W1-0Hamilton AcademicalAug 25CHA

W1-0Annan AthleticAug 22LEA

W3-0DumbartonAug 15LEA

W3-1CowdenbeathAug 11CHA

D2-2SpartansAug 8LEA

L0-5Elgin CityAug 1LEA

St. Mirren B

W4-2Cumbernauld ColtsSep 26CHA

L1-2ClydebankSep 22CHA

L0-1Airdrie UnitedSep 8CHA

W5-2East FifeAug 25CHA

W4-1ClydeAug 11CHA

D4-4East KilbrideJul 7FRI

L0-2StranraerNov 11CHA

L1-2Kelty HeartsOct 11CHA

L1-3Hamilton AcademicalSep 24CHA

D2-2Annan AthleticSep 6CHA

W3-2Alloa AthleticAug 26CHA

L2-4DumbartonAug 12CHA

W3-2Berwick RangersJul 30CHA

L0-6Albion RoversSep 4CHA

L1-4WrexhamOct 12CHA

Squad & Injuries

Edinburgh City

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper5

St. Mirren B

3 available

Attackers1

Midfielders2

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or St. Mirren B

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Yes

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 9 landed

Recent Form

Edinburgh City

St. Mirren B

Squad & Injuries

Edinburgh City

St. Mirren B