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Predictions graded

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines4Sint Maarten0

HT 3–0Tue 6 Oct 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–287%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest

St Vincent sealed top spot in Group D by beating Sint Maarten 4-2 in Belmopan three days ago, and Oalex Anderson arrives off a hat-trick in that game.

Another St Vincent win is the likeliest result, with a sending-off in that first meeting and top spot already secured the main risks. Three quotes hold up: St Vincent ahead at half-time at 1.88, both teams not scoring in the first half at 1.25, and any first-half goal at 1.22.

Context

St Vincent have won all three of their Group D matches, the last of them 4-2 over Sint Maarten on 3 October, and that win secured the group's top spot. It matters here because the same two teams meet again on the closing matchday, so St Vincent play it with their position already settled while Sint Maarten's final standing is still to be fixed. Matchday previews continue to describe promotion as being decided on this final day, which shows the practical consequence of that top spot is framed less consistently than the standings suggest.
- St Vincent won 4-2 away to Sint Maarten on 3 October, a third successive Group D victory.
- That result secured top spot in Group D for St Vincent.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 23:50 · Europe/BucharestSt Vincent and the Grenadines secures top of Group Dwww.concacaf.com · 4 Oct 2026St Vincent score four to beat Sint Maarten in Concacaf Nations Leaguecaribbeanpulse.org · 4 Oct 2026
The reverse fixture was played on 3 October in Belmopan, Belize, with St Vincent scoring four and conceding twice. Repeating the same pairing inside one group window makes that game the most direct reference point for this one, and it is the only fixture in the group where Sint Maarten have scored. The caveat is that the first meeting included a St Vincent sending-off, so the way the closing stages unfolded may not be repeated here.
- St Vincent won 4-2 on 3 October at the FFB Stadium in Belmopan, Belize.
- Oalex Anderson scored at 11, 24 and 57 minutes and Sergio Hughes scored an own goal at 34 for St Vincent's four goals.
- Mitchell de Nooijer scored at 74 minutes and Quinton Christina at 82 for Sint Maarten.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 23:50 · Europe/BucharestSt Vincent score four to beat Sint Maarten in Concacaf Nations Leaguecaribbeanpulse.org · 4 Oct 2026
Anderson's hat-trick on 3 October was his second scoring game of the window, and his five goals in three group matches are more than Sint Maarten have managed as a team in the group. He also scored for Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 1 October before rejoining the national side, so he comes into the closing fixture on a heavy run of minutes. The limitation is that the earlier meeting turned on an own goal and a sending-off, so his output there should not be read as a straightforward repeat against the same opponent.
- Anderson scored at 11, 24 and 57 minutes in the 4-2 win on 3 October.
- He has five goals in three Group D matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 23:50 · Europe/Bucharest
St Vincent finished the 3 October win with ten men after a red card, and a sending-off normally carries a one-match ban that would rule that player out of this rematch. That matters because it forces at least one change to the side that started the reverse fixture, three days before the return meeting. The reporting available does not name the dismissed player or his position, so the size of the effect on the line-up cannot be pinned down.
- St Vincent were shown a red card during the 4-2 win over Sint Maarten on 3 October.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 23:50 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
St Vincent have the stronger recent record and won the reverse fixture comfortably, with Anderson in scoring form.
- St Vincent won the reverse fixture 4-2 on 3 October, leading 3-0 at half-time.
- St Vincent have won 6 of 10 competitive matches and average 2.1 goals scored.
- Sint Maarten have lost all three group matches and sit bottom without a point.
- Oalex Anderson scored a hat-trick in the reverse fixture and has five goals in three group games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
St Vincent start strongly and Sint Maarten rarely lead at half-time.
- St Vincent led 3-0 at half-time in the reverse fixture.
- St Vincent scored in the first half in all of their last 6 matches.
- St Vincent average 1.3 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Sint Maarten have scored only 1 first-half goal in their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Vincent often fade after half-time, but they still have more attacking quality.
- St Vincent have scored 3 second-half goals in their last 6 matches.
- St Vincent have conceded 7 second-half goals in their last 6.
- Sint Maarten scored twice in the second half of the reverse fixture.
- St Vincent average 0.8 second-half goals for and 1.1 against overall.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Vincent have the stronger recent record and won the reverse fixture comfortably, with Anderson in scoring form. A draw is possible if St Vincent ease off, but their record shows few draws and Sint Maarten's form is poor.
- St Vincent won the reverse fixture 4-2 on 3 October, leading 3-0 at half-time.
- St Vincent have won 6 of 10 competitive matches and average 2.1 goals scored.
- St Vincent have drawn 0 of 10 competitive matches.
- Sint Maarten have drawn 2 of 15 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSaint Vincent and the Grenadines or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Vincent start strongly and Sint Maarten rarely lead at half-time. Sint Maarten often go into half-time level, though St Vincent tend to score early.
- St Vincent led 3-0 at half-time in the reverse fixture.
- St Vincent scored in the first half in all of their last 6 matches.
- Sint Maarten were level at half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- St Vincent drew the first half once in their last 6.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSaint Vincent and the Grenadines or DrawEstimated chance93%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring recent games, and the reverse fixture had six goals.
- The reverse fixture produced six goals on 3 October.
- St Vincent's last six matches averaged 3.3 total goals.
- Sint Maarten's last six matches averaged 3.0 total goals.
- St Vincent average 2.1 goals scored, Sint Maarten average 2.07 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
St Vincent concede regularly and Sint Maarten found the net twice in the last meeting.
- Both teams scored in the reverse fixture (4-2).
- St Vincent have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Sint Maarten scored twice in the reverse fixture, both goals after 74 minutes.
- St Vincent kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Vincent have a strong scoring record and Sint Maarten concede frequently.
- St Vincent scored 4 goals in the reverse fixture on 3 October.
- St Vincent scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- St Vincent average 2.1 goals per competitive match.
- Sint Maarten conceded 2+ goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSaint Vincent and the Grenadines over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sint Maarten's scoring is limited, and they often fail to reach two goals.
- Sint Maarten scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Sint Maarten have scored only 5 goals in 7 competitive matches.
- St Vincent kept 2 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches.
- Sint Maarten's group goals both came in the 4-2 defeat.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSint Maarten under 1.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
St Vincent consistently score before half-time, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- St Vincent scored in the first half in all of their last 6 matches.
- St Vincent average 1.3 first-half goals for.
- Sint Maarten have conceded in the first half in 3 of their last 6.
- The reverse fixture had three first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance83%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Sint Maarten rarely score before the break, so both teams scoring in the first half is unlikely.
- Sint Maarten failed to score in the first half in 4 of their last 6.
- St Vincent kept a first-half clean sheet in 4 of their last 6.
- The reverse fixture had no first-half goals for Sint Maarten.
- Sint Maarten average 0.27 first-half goals.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are active after half-time, and the reverse fixture had three second-half goals.
- The reverse fixture produced three second-half goals.
- St Vincent's last six second halves averaged 1.7 total goals.
- Sint Maarten's last six second halves averaged 1.8 total goals.
- St Vincent have conceded 7 second-half goals in their last 6.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner totals hover around the line, with recent matches mixed.
- St Vincent's last three matches had total corners of 10, 6, and 9.
- Sint Maarten's last three matches had total corners of 10, 6, and 13.
- St Vincent average 5.4 corners for and 3.2 against (8.6 total).
- Sint Maarten average 3.1 corners for and 5.6 against (8.7 total).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Total shots are near the line, with the reverse fixture comfortably over.
- The reverse fixture had 30 total shots.
- St Vincent's last three matches had total shots of 30, 25, 19.
- Sint Maarten's last three matches had total shots of 30, 21, 20.
- St Vincent average 22.8 total shots per match; Sint Maarten average 25.9.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches have often produced at least three total cards.
- The reverse fixture had 2 cards (1 yellow, 1 red for St Vincent).
- St Vincent's last three matches had 2, 3, and 4 cards.
- Sint Maarten's last three matches had 2, 2, and 6 cards.
- St Vincent average 2.4 cards per match; Sint Maarten average 2.7.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.5 price requires 66.7%, above our 64.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W2-4Sint MaartenvSt. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 3, 2026CON

6 goals/game avg

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