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Atherton CollieriesTrafford

Tue 6 Oct 2026, 18:456 Oct, 18:45

14Probabilities3Priced5Edges84%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 03:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Atherton Collieries, a step higher and at home, look the slightly more likely winners of Tuesday's FA Cup third qualifying round replay, three days after the 2-2 at Trafford.

Two reviewed prices carry a small edge: a goalless first half at 3.5 and a drawn 90 minutes at 4. Either team to win at 1.22, both teams to score at 1.55 and over 2.5 goals at 1.57 are all shorter than the chances justify.

Context

The replay reverses the venue after the 2-2 on 3 October, so Atherton Collieries host with only three days between the ties and both managers working from the same most recent meeting. No injury or availability items were reported for either side.

The draw for the fourth and final qualifying round was made on 5 October, after the first meeting, and it sent the winners of this replay to AFC Fylde on 17 October. That is the round where the National League clubs enter, so Tuesday's result is worth both the £5,625 attached to this tie and a place one win from the first round proper. Neither side could plan around the draw, which arrived only once a replay was needed, so it shapes the size of the prize rather than the preparation for the night.
- The fourth qualifying round draw paired AFC Fylde with the winners of the Atherton Collieries v Trafford tie.
- AFC Fylde host the replay winners on Saturday 17 October 2026.
- The fourth qualifying round is where the National League clubs enter, and the 32 ties are scheduled for 17 October.
- The winners of this third qualifying round tie collect £5,625.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/Bucharest
The first meeting was a game of two halves: Atherton were the better side before the break and led through Kielen Adams, only for Trafford to score twice in a short burst at the start of the second half, the second when a cross from the left ended in the net. The tie was rescued from a corner in the 89th minute. It is the most recent and most specific evidence either manager has on the other, and it removes any element of the unknown from the replay. It is a template rather than a forecast, because a replay starts level and can be settled beyond 90 minutes.
- The third qualifying round tie at Trafford on 3 October 2026 finished 2-2, with the half-time score 0-1.
- Atherton Collieries led 1-0 at half-time through Kielen Adams.
- Trafford scored twice early in the second half to lead 2-1, the second goal coming when a cross from the left ended in the net.
- Atherton equalised from a corner in the 89th minute, with Essa Janneh scoring their second goal.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/BucharestMatch result: Trafford 2-2 Atherton Collieries, 3 October 2026predictstats.com · 3 Oct 2026
The 3 October tie was played at Trafford's ground; the replay reverses the venue and puts Atherton Collieries at their own Dreams2Reality Stadium on Tuesday evening. Atherton have won four ties in this season's competition, and a fifth would send them to AFC Fylde in the final qualifying round. Their earlier home tie in the run, the second qualifying round against Prescot Cables on 19 September, finished 2-0 in their favour, so a home cup night at this stage is familiar.
- The replay takes place at Atherton Collieries' home ground on Tuesday 6 October, kicking off at 7:45pm.
- The ground is the Dreams2Reality Stadium in Atherton, Greater Manchester.
- Atherton Collieries have won four ties in this season's competition, including a 2-0 home win over Prescot Cables in the second qualifying round on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/BucharestFixture venue: Atherton Collieries v Traffordwww.livescore.com · 6 Oct 2026
Trafford have come through four qualifying rounds without a home tie, winning each one on the road, and they play a step below Atherton Collieries. The replay keeps them away again, at Atherton's ground, so the pattern of their run and the level gap point the same way for the lower-ranked side. Their one home tie of the campaign, on 3 October, is the caution: they trailed for long spells, led 2-1, and then conceded an 89th-minute equaliser.
- Trafford are the joint lowest-ranked club remaining in the 2026-27 FA Cup.
- Trafford's four qualifying wins this season all came away from home.
- Trafford play at step five, one step below Atherton Collieries at step four.
- Five step-five clubs remain in the competition at this stage.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Atherton Collieries or Trafford

1.22fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 82%

−9.0ppshort

The higher-division side is at home with a strong record in this fixture and should hold a modest edge. Trafford's away cup run and scoring form give them a genuine chance despite the lower division placing.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

−4.5ppshort

Trafford concede in every match and Atherton score in most of theirs, so both finding the net is the likelier outcome.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

−8.7ppshort

Both defences concede regularly and Trafford's recent matches have produced goals at both ends.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The higher-division side is at home with a strong record in this fixture and should hold a modest edge.
- Atherton Collieries are 3W-1D-2L at home this season, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.17 per home match
- Atherton beat Trafford 1-0 and 4-0 in the two most recent meetings at Atherton
- Atherton play a step above Trafford (step four against step five) and have won four ties in this FA Cup run, including a 2-0 home win over Prescot Cables
BetBugs · Match WinnerAtherton CollieriesEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides produce few first-half goals, which makes a level half-time score the single most likely outcome.
- Atherton average 0.36 first-half goals for and Trafford 0.42 per competitive match
- Atherton have scored one first-half home goal in six matches
- Trafford led 1-0 at half-time in the first meeting only after Atherton's goal
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Atherton's scoring is concentrated after the break and they concede little in second halves at home.
- Atherton score 1.07 and concede 0.93 second-half goals per competitive match
- At home Atherton score 1.17 and concede 0.50 second-half goals per match
- Trafford average 0.5 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerAtherton CollieriesEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
The higher-division side is at home with a strong record in this fixture and should hold a modest edge. Trafford's away cup run and scoring form give them a genuine chance despite the lower division placing.
- Atherton Collieries are 3W-1D-2L at home this season, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.17 per home match
- Atherton beat Trafford 1-0 and 4-0 in the two most recent meetings at Atherton
- Trafford have won all four of their qualifying ties away from home this season
- Trafford scored 3, 2 and 2 goals in their last three FA Cup matches
BetBugs · Double ChanceAtherton Collieries or TraffordMarket price1.22Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides produce few first-half goals, which makes a level half-time score the single most likely outcome. Atherton have conceded in the first half more often than they have scored, giving Trafford a similar share to the home side.
- Atherton average 0.36 first-half goals for and Trafford 0.42 per competitive match
- Atherton have scored one first-half home goal in six matches
- Atherton concede 1.0 first-half goals per competitive match
- Trafford average 0.42 first-half goals scored
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or TraffordEstimated chance73%

Goals9 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both defences concede regularly and Trafford's recent matches have produced goals at both ends.
- Atherton concede 1.93 goals per competitive match
- Trafford's 12 competitive matches average 3.08 goals
- Five of Trafford's last six matches went over 2.5 goals, and the first tie produced four
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.57Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Trafford concede in every match and Atherton score in most of theirs, so both finding the net is the likelier outcome.
- Trafford have kept no clean sheet in 12 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of Atherton's 14 and 8 of Trafford's 12 competitive matches
- Atherton scored in 11 of 14 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.55Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atherton's home scoring has been modest and their goals tend to arrive late rather than in volume.
- Atherton average 1.33 goals per home match
- Atherton scored one goal or fewer in three of their last six matches
- Atherton average 0.36 first-half goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalAtherton Collieries under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trafford's away scoring average is low and Atherton's home defence has been their stronger side.
- Trafford average 1.0 goals per away match
- Atherton concede 1.17 goals per home match and kept two home clean sheets in six
- Trafford failed to score in 4 of 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalTrafford under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trafford score in most of their matches, and Atherton have conceded in 11 of 14.
- Atherton have kept three clean sheets in 14 competitive matches
- Trafford have scored in 8 of 12 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in five of Trafford's six away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreTrafford to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Atherton have scored consistently at home and Trafford have yet to record a clean sheet this season.
- Trafford have kept no clean sheet in 12 competitive matches
- Atherton scored in 11 of 14 competitive matches and in five of six home matches
- Atherton scored twice in each of their last three cup ties
BetBugs · Team to ScoreAtherton Collieries to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Goals before the break are common in both teams' matches, including the first meeting.
- Atherton's matches average 1.36 first-half goals; Trafford's 1.25
- Eleven of the last 12 combined matches for these teams produced a first-half goal
- The first meeting had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both sides averaging well under half a first-half goal each, both scoring before the break is unlikely.
- Atherton average 0.36 first-half goals scored and Trafford 0.42
- Atherton have scored one first-half goal in six home matches
- Trafford have scored five first-half goals in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average close to two goals after the break, and the first tie had three.
- Atherton's matches average 2.0 second-half goals; Trafford's 1.83
- Atherton score 1.07 second-half goals; Trafford 0.92
- The first meeting produced three second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

D2-2TraffordvAtherton CollieriesOct 3, 2026FAC

L4-1TraffordvAtherton CollieriesJan 24, 2026NON

W1-0Atherton CollieriesvTraffordSep 27, 2025NON

W4-0Atherton CollieriesvTraffordMar 8, 2025NON

W0-1TraffordvAtherton CollieriesNov 19, 2024NON

Atherton Collieries: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Atherton Collieries

D2-2TraffordOct 3FAC

W2-0Prescot CablesSep 19FAC

W3-2Northwich VictoriaSep 5FAC

L1-4Congleton TownAug 29FA

L1-2Hyde UnitedJul 28FRI

L0-3BuryApr 25NON

L0-3Sporting KhalsaApr 18NON

W2-1ChasetownApr 11NON

W3-0Wythenshawe TownApr 6NON

L1-2Newcastle TownApr 4NON

L0-4Lower BreckMar 28NON

D1-1Kidsgrove AthleticMar 21NON

D2-2Vauxhall MotorsMar 14NON

W2-0Darlaston TownMar 7NON

L1-3AvroFeb 28NON

Trafford

D2-2Atherton CollieriesOct 3FAC

W2-1Heaton StanningtonSep 19FAC

W3-1Bamber BridgeSep 5FAC

W2-1ChorleyJul 28FRI

L0-3United of ManchesterJul 20FRI

W2-0RylandsJul 18FRI

L0-4Congleton TownApr 25NON

L1-3BootleApr 18NON

L0-1Newcastle TownApr 11NON

L1-2AvroApr 6NON

L1-2Runcorn LinnetsApr 4NON

L0-2Stalybridge CelticMar 28NON

W2-1Stafford RangersMar 21NON

L0-1Shifnal Town FCMar 14NON

W4-1Kidsgrove AthleticMar 7NON

Squad & Injuries

Atherton Collieries

11 available

Attackers3

Midfielders2

Defenders5

Goalkeeper1

Trafford

2 available

Attackers1

Midfielders0

Defenders1

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Atherton Collieries or Trafford

Yes

Over 2.5

Result5 outcomes · top 73%

Goals9 outcomes · top 84%

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Atherton Collieries

Trafford

Squad & Injuries

Atherton Collieries

Trafford