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Accrington Stanley1Salford City1

HT 0–0Tue 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 16–15On targetOn target 3–7CornersCorners 7–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Accrington are unbeaten in five home matches but have won only two of ten overall; Salford have won four of their last six yet lost three of five on the road.

Accrington to win or draw is the likelier outcome, and at 4.5 it is worth taking. Accrington to win at 34, over 2.5 goals at 8.5 and both teams to score at 3.8 also appeal, while Salford to win at 1.17 and under 2.5 at 1.04 do not.

Context

Accrington's home form is the steadiest part of their season; across all ten competitive matches they have won only two, drawn four and lost four.
Salford City have lost three of their five away matches and conceded 2.2 goals per away game, so Accrington's home solidity is the main reason to lean their way. Three draws in that run show how often Accrington have been held, which keeps a share of the points realistic for the visitors.
- Accrington's five home matches from 15 August to 3 October 2026: two wins, three draws, no defeats.
- Across that five-match home sample they averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Two of those five home matches produced a clean sheet for Accrington.
Salford's away form sits well below their overall record, which includes four wins in their last six matches.
With Accrington averaging 1.8 goals at home, Salford's 2.2 conceded per away game is the visitors' clearest vulnerability in this tie. The one away win in five also means their four recent victories have mostly come elsewhere, most of them at home.
- Salford's five away matches in the record: one win, one draw, three defeats.
- Salford conceded 2.2 goals per away match across that five-match sample.
- Salford kept no clean sheet in any of those away matches.
It is Salford's only other match in this competition in the record, and the only one of their recent games they lost while dominating the shot count.
Salford generated 19 shots and seven on target yet still lost, which shows their attacking volume alone has not delivered results in this competition. It also makes their 4-1 win at Oldham four days later look more like finishing than control.
- 22 September 2026 EFL Trophy: Salford City 1-2 Sheffield Wednesday.
- Salford had 19 shots to Sheffield Wednesday's 5, and 7 on target to 5.
- Salford led 1-0 at half-time and conceded both goals after the break.
It is the standout away result in Salford's recent run of four wins from six matches, and it came six days before this tie.
The result is the strongest recent counter to Salford's poor away split and shows the level they can reach on the road. Oldham had 20 shots to Salford's 17, so the margin came from sharper finishing rather than full control, which is worth remembering when weighing the away record against this one afternoon.
- 26 September 2026 League Two: Oldham 1-4 Salford City.
- Salford scored two first-half and two second-half goals.
- Salford recorded 7 shots on target to Oldham's 3, from 17 shots to 20.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 34.00
The read
Accrington's home record and Salford's away defeats point to a home advantage, but the margin is not large.
- Accrington are unbeaten in five home matches (2 wins, 3 draws) with 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
- Salford have lost three of five away matches, conceding 2.2 goals per game on the road.
- Accrington won the most recent head-to-head 1-0 at home in February 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAccrington StanleyEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal averages are not high enough to expect an early lead, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Accrington's matches average 1.7 first-half goals; Salford's average 1.18.
- Salford away first-half goals for and against average 0.8 and 1.4.
- First-half draws are common when neither side dominates early.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 4.50
The read
Accrington's home record and Salford's away defeats point to a home advantage, but the margin is not large. Accrington's frequent draws at home and Salford's mixed away results make a stalemate plausible.
- Accrington are unbeaten in five home matches (2 wins, 3 draws) with 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
- Salford have lost three of five away matches, conceding 2.2 goals per game on the road.
- Accrington have drawn four of ten league matches and three of five at home.
- Salford have drawn one of five away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAccrington Stanley or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Accrington's home first-half scoring and Salford's away first-half concessions give them a slight edge. The first-half goal averages are not high enough to expect an early lead, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Accrington score 0.7 first-half goals on average and concede 1.0.
- At home they average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.8 against.
- Accrington's matches average 1.7 first-half goals; Salford's average 1.18.
- Salford away first-half goals for and against average 0.8 and 1.4.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAccrington Stanley or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 8.50
The read
Both teams concede regularly and their recent matches have often been high-scoring.
- Accrington's matches average 3.0 total goals, Salford's average 2.64.
- Salford away matches average 3.8 total goals.
- The last six Accrington matches produced 16 goals, Salford's last six produced 17.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.80
The read
Both sides have shown they can score and concede, making a mutual goal return likely.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Accrington's 10 matches and in 5 of Salford's 11.
- Salford scored in all of their last six matches.
- Accrington scored in 8 of 10 matches overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals are common in both teams' matches, so at least one goal is likely.
- Accrington's matches average 1.7 first-half goals.
- Salford's matches average 1.18 first-half goals.
- Two of Accrington's last six matches were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half average sits below 1.5, making under slightly more likely.
- Accrington's second-half total goals average 1.3.
- Salford's second-half total goals average 1.46.
- Accrington have conceded only 0.4 second-half goals per home match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Accrington's home scoring rate and Salford's away concessions suggest they can score at least twice.
- Accrington score 1.4 goals overall and 1.8 at home per match.
- Accrington scored two or more in three of their last six matches.
- Salford concede 2.2 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAccrington Stanley over 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Salford's recent scoring has been inconsistent, making under 1.5 slightly more likely.
- Salford's overall goals-for average is 1.27.
- Salford scored zero or one goal in four of their last six matches.
- Accrington kept two clean sheets in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSalford City under 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Salford's high corner counts push the combined total towards the over line.
- Salford average 6.36 corners for and 4.18 against, totaling 10.54 per match.
- Accrington average 4.6 corners for and 4.9 against, totaling 9.5.
- Salford's last six matches averaged 12.7 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' overall shot averages are below 29.5, favouring the under.
- Accrington's matches average 28.4 total shots.
- Salford's matches average 27.64 total shots.
- Accrington's last six matches averaged 25.8 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 29.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' yellow-card averages are below 4.5, making the under slightly more likely.
- Accrington's matches average 4.3 total yellow cards.
- Salford's matches average 3.64 total yellow cards.
- Salford's away matches average 3.6 total yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L1-0Accrington STvSalford CityFeb 5, 2026LEA

L2-1Salford CityvAccrington STAug 16, 2025LEA

W1-2Salford CityvAccrington STApr 18, 2025LEA

W0-2Accrington STvSalford CityDec 21, 2024LEA

L3-0Accrington STvSalford CityJan 1, 2024LEA

Salford City: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

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