FriendliesFull time

Predictions graded

Kyrgyzstan3Lebanon1

HT 2–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges3–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 17:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Kyrgyzstan have scored in all five competitive home matches in the sample; Lebanon kept three clean sheets in four competitive away games, so this friendly turns on which record holds.

Lebanon's newest competitive result — a 0-2 home loss to Yemen in June 2026 — argues against the clean-sheet run. Over 2.5 goals at 3.25, both teams to score at 2.75 and a first-half goal at 1.83 offer value; Under 2.5 at 1.29 and both teams not to score at 1.38 do not.

Context

Lebanon's competitive away results have been built on keeping the ball out rather than outscoring opponents.
Three clean sheets in four competitive away matches is the strongest defensive strand in this fixture, and it lines up directly against Kyrgyzstan's home scoring record. The one exception, a 1-2 Arab Cup loss to Sudan in November 2025, came after a 0-0 draw at Yemen and qualifying wins of 4-0 at Bhutan and 3-0 at Brunei. The run covers June to November 2025, so it is a dated record rather than a picture of the side arriving in October 2026.
- Competitive away record June–November 2025: W2 D1 L1 from four matches, with three clean sheets (0-0 at Yemen, 10 Jun 2025; 4-0 at Bhutan, 14 Oct 2025; 3-0 at Brunei, 18 Nov 2025).
- The exception was a 1-2 loss to Sudan at the Arab Cup on 26 Nov 2025, the only one of the four away competitive matches in which Lebanon conceded.
- Corner, shot and card data are not recorded for these matches, so the scorelines are the available detail.
Kyrgyzstan's home competitive record is their most reliable attacking evidence, and it comes with a defensive caveat.
Kyrgyzstan's home competitive record — two wins, two draws and a defeat over five matches, 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded — is the clearest reason to expect them to score against Lebanon's away defence. The other side is that they kept one clean sheet in those five, so a home win without conceding looks unlikely on this evidence. That window runs October 2024 to August 2025, predating their September 2025 CAFA Nations Cup defeats.
- Competitive home record October 2024–August 2025: W2 D2 L1 from five matches.
- Averages across those five: 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match; both teams scored in four of the five.
- Kyrgyzstan scored in all five competitive home matches and kept one clean sheet.
This is the newest competitive evidence on either side of the fixture, and it points the other way from Lebanon's away clean-sheet run.
This is the freshest competitive evidence on either side of the fixture, and it lands against Lebanon: two goals conceded after a goalless first half. It sits seven months after the away clean sheets of the 2025 qualifiers, so those 4-0 and 3-0 wins read as a dated stretch. Kyrgyzstan's competitive sample is older still, ending in September 2025, making this June 2026 defeat the most recent point of reference in the brief.
- 4 June 2026, Asian Cup qualifying: Lebanon 0-2 Yemen (home).
- Half-time 0-0; both goals came in the second half.
- No corner, shot or card data was recorded for the match.
Kyrgyzstan's newest competitive result came away from home, in the part of their record that reads poorly.
Kyrgyzstan's newest competitive result came on the road, where their sample reads W0 D1 L4 from five matches. It does not undercut their home scoring record, which comes from a different five-match set running to August 2025, but it shows how far the home and away splits diverge. No corner, shot or card data was recorded for the Uzbekistan match, so the 0-4 scoreline is the extent of the detail available.
- 5 September 2025, CAFA Nations Cup: Uzbekistan 4-0 Kyrgyzstan (away).
- Half-time 1-0; Kyrgyzstan conceded three second-half goals.
- No corner, shot or card data was recorded for the match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kyrgyzstan’s stronger home record and scoring reliability give them a modest edge in a friendly.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive record: W2 D2 L1 from 5 matches.
- Home competitive goals: 8 scored, 6 conceded (1.6 vs 1.2 per match).
- Lebanon away competitive: W2 D1 L1 from 4, goals 8-2.
- Kyrgyzstan scored in all 5 home competitive matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKyrgyzstanEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lebanon’s recent first halves have often been level, and Kyrgyzstan start slowly at home.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive first-half goals for/against: 0.6/0.8.
- Lebanon away competitive first-half goals for/against: 1.5/0.25.
- Kyrgyzstan's last 6 competitive first halves: 1 draw.
- Lebanon's last 6 competitive first halves: 4 draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kyrgyzstan’s stronger home second-half scoring makes them the more likely second-half winner.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive second-half goals for: 1.0 per match.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive second-half goals against: 0.4 per match.
- Kyrgyzstan's last 3 home competitive second halves: W2 D1 L0.
- Lebanon away competitive second-half goals for: 0.5 per match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostKyrgyzstanEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lebanon’s recent first halves have often been level, and Kyrgyzstan start slowly at home. Lebanon’s away first-half scoring rate gives them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive first-half goals for/against: 0.6/0.8.
- Lebanon away competitive first-half goals for/against: 1.5/0.25.
- Lebanon away competitive first-half goals for: 1.5 per match.
- Lebanon away competitive first-half goals against: 0.25 per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or LebanonEstimated chance74%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.25
The read
Combined scoring and conceding averages point to a moderate chance of three or more goals.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive average total goals: 2.8.
- Lebanon away competitive average total goals: 2.5.
- Kyrgyzstan recent 6 competitive: 19 total goals.
- Lebanon recent 6 competitive: 14 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Kyrgyzstan’s home scoring and Lebanon’s away scoring make both teams finding the net plausible.
- Kyrgyzstan scored in all 5 home competitive matches.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive both teams scored: 4 of 5.
- Lebanon away competitive scored in 3 of 4.
- Kyrgyzstan recent 6 competitive both teams scored: 5 of 6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lebanon’s away defence can limit Kyrgyzstan to one goal or fewer.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive goals for: 1.6 per match.
- Kyrgyzstan scored exactly 1 in 2 of their last 3 home competitive matches.
- Lebanon away competitive conceded: 0.5 per match.
- Lebanon kept 3 clean sheets in 4 away competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostKyrgyzstan under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lebanon’s away scoring rate gives them a good chance of two or more goals.
- Lebanon away competitive goals for: 2.0 per match.
- Lebanon scored 3 at Brunei and 4 at Bhutan in away qualifiers.
- Lebanon failed to score in 1 of 4 away competitive matches.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive conceded: 1.2 per match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLebanon over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lebanon score often enough away to make a Kyrgyzstan clean sheet unlikely.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive clean sheets: 1 in 5.
- Kyrgyzstan conceded in 4 of 5 home competitive matches.
- Lebanon away competitive scored in 3 of 4.
- Kyrgyzstan recent 6 competitive clean sheets: 0.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLebanon to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kyrgyzstan’s home scoring makes it more likely Lebanon concede at least once.
- Lebanon away competitive clean sheets: 3 in 4.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive scored in all 5 matches.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive goals for: 1.6 per match.
- Kyrgyzstan recent 6 competitive scored in 5.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKyrgyzstan to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A clean-sheet win for Kyrgyzstan is unlikely because they usually concede at home.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive wins: 2 in 5.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive clean sheets: 1 in 5.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive both teams scored: 4 of 5.
- Lebanon away competitive scored in 3 of 4.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kyrgyzstan’s home scoring makes a Lebanon clean-sheet win less likely than not.
- Lebanon away competitive wins: 2 in 4.
- Lebanon away competitive clean sheets: 3 in 4.
- Both Lebanon away wins were clean sheets.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive scored in all 5 matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both teams’ first-half goal averages suggest a good chance of at least one goal before the break.
- Kyrgyzstan recent 6 competitive first halves all had at least one goal.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive first-half total goals: 1.4 per match.
- Lebanon away competitive first-half total goals: 1.75 per match.
- Lebanon recent 6 competitive first halves: 3 ended 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half averages lean slightly toward fewer than two goals after the break.
- Kyrgyzstan home competitive second-half total goals: 1.4 per match.
- Lebanon away competitive second-half total goals: 0.75 per match.
- Kyrgyzstan recent 6 competitive second halves averaged 2.0 total goals.
- Lebanon recent 6 competitive second halves averaged 1.17 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W1-0KyrgyzstanvLebanonOct 4, 2026FRI

1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Kyrgyzstan

W5-0MaldivesSep 28FRI

D0-0PalestineJun 9FRI

D0-0PalestineJun 6FRI

L2-5MadagascarMar 28FRI

L0-1Equatorial GuineaMar 25FRI

L0-4UzbekistanSep 5CAF

L1-2OmanSep 2CAF

D1-1TurkmenistanAug 30CAF

D1-1United Arab EmiratesJun 10WOR

D2-2North KoreaJun 5WOR

W3-1QatarMar 25WOR

L0-1UzbekistanMar 20WOR

L2-3IranNov 19WOR

L0-3United Arab EmiratesNov 14WOR

W1-0North KoreaOct 15WOR

Lebanon

W6-0MaldivesOct 1FRI

L0-2YemenJun 4ASI

L1-2SudanNov 26ARA

W3-0BruneiNov 18ASI

W4-0BhutanOct 14ASI

W2-0BhutanOct 9ASI

D0-0IndonesiaSep 8FRI

W1-0QatarAug 24FRI

D0-0YemenJun 10ASI

L0-1OmanMay 28FRI

W5-0BruneiMar 25ASI

W4-0Timor-LesteMar 20FRI

W2-0KuwaitDec 15FRI

W2-1KuwaitDec 12FRI

W3-2MyanmarNov 19FRI

Squad & Injuries

Kyrgyzstan

40 available

Attackers9

Midfielders14

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Lebanon

23 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Kyrgyzstan

Lebanon

Squad & Injuries

Kyrgyzstan

Lebanon