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Predictions graded

Truro City4Cirencester Town0

HT 2–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 04:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Tier-nine Cirencester Town, who have already knocked out a National League South club, visit a Truro City side three levels above them with a place in the FA Cup fourth qualifying round at stake.

Truro's home form makes them clear favourites. The 1.17 on a Truro win asks more than the record justifies, but three prices do offer something: Under 2.5 goals at 2.9, the first half to finish level at 3.1, and no first-half goals at 4.0.

Context

Cirencester Town sit three tiers below Truro City, yet the visitors have already removed a National League South side from this competition, so the level gap is not automatic protection for the hosts. That gives the tie a credible upset route rather than a routine mismatch, and it is the reason the higher-ranked side is wary of the fixture. Truro City's own path had complications too: they needed a replay to see off Merthyr Town in the previous round. The limitation is that Cirencester Town also needed a replay and were held at home by Farnham Town before winning away.
- Truro City host Cirencester Town in the FA Cup third qualifying round on Saturday, 3 October 2026.
- Cirencester Town play in the Hellenic League Premier Division, three tiers below National League South side Truro City.
- Cirencester Town are among only five tier-nine clubs still in the competition at this stage.
- The winners reach the fourth qualifying round, where the 24 National League clubs enter.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:21 · Europe/BucharestCornwallLive FA Cup third qualifying round reportwww.cornwalllive.com · 2 Oct 2026
Cirencester Town's 2-1 replay win at Farnham Town is the concrete anchor for treating them as live in this tie: Farnham Town sit three levels above them and had already held the Centurions to a draw in the first meeting. Harlie Price scored twice in the replay, including a 90th-minute winner, showing the side can take a late chance against higher-division opposition. The limitation is that it took a second game to finish the job, and beating Farnham Town is a different proposition from facing a Truro City side from three divisions higher. That makes the upset evidence real but narrow.
- Cirencester Town won 2-1 at Farnham Town in an FA Cup second qualifying round replay on 22 September 2026, after a 2-2 draw.
- Harlie Price scored both Cirencester Town goals, the second in the 90th minute.
- Farnham Town play three levels above Cirencester Town.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:21 · Europe/BucharestCornwallLive FA Cup third qualifying round reportwww.cornwalllive.com · 2 Oct 2026
Blake joins on a short-term loan from Nottingham Forest's academy and was available for this tie, adding a forward option to Truro City's squad for the cup run. The club has presented him as an impact player who could push for starts, which makes a first appearance in this competition plausible. The limitation is that Blake has not played senior first-team football, so any role here is likely to be limited rather than a settled starting change. The signing matters mainly as an indication of how Truro City intend to use the tie.
- Zyan Blake joined Truro City on a short-term loan from Nottingham Forest, confirmed on 30 September 2026.
- Blake, 18, had not made a first-team appearance for Nottingham Forest.
- He was available to feature in the FA Cup third qualifying round tie against Cirencester Town.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Alex Black oversees football at Truro City and frames this tie as one where the club is the higher-division side for once, with the FA Cup's record of producing shocks as the caution. The fixture-relevant element is the priority he places on league promotion: if the cup run is secondary, Truro City may not field their strongest available side. The same framing still stresses a wish to avoid an upset, so rotation is a plausible reading rather than an established plan. The tie is also a direct route into the fourth qualifying round for both clubs.
- Alex Black is head of football at Truro City and spoke about the club's approach to the FA Cup third qualifying round tie.
- Truro City are the higher-division side in the tie, rather than the underdog.
- League promotion, rather than cup progress, is set as the club's priority.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:21 · Europe/BucharestTruro City FA Cup third qualifying round previewwww.bbc.co.uk · 2 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Truro's higher level and strong home form make them clear favourites.
- Truro sit three tiers above Cirencester (National League South vs Hellenic League Premier).
- Truro's home record is 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 matches.
- Truro average 2.13 goals for and 0.63 against at home.
- Cirencester's away record is 5 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 8, mostly against lower-level teams.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTruro CityEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Truro have a strong first-half home scoring record.
- Truro average 1.0 first-half goals at home.
- Truro concede 0.375 first-half goals at home.
- Cirencester concede 0.5 first-half goals away.
- Truro led at half-time in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonTruro CityEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Truro's second-half home record points to them finishing ahead.
- Truro average 1.125 second-half goals at home.
- Truro concede 0.25 second-half goals at home.
- Truro have 3 wins and 3 draws in second halves of their last six.
- Cirencester's away second-half data covers only two matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonTruro CityEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Truro's higher level and strong home form make them clear favourites. Cirencester's three-tier gap could be narrow enough for a single-game stalemate.
- Truro sit three tiers above Cirencester (National League South vs Hellenic League Premier).
- Truro's home record is 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 matches.
- Truro have drawn 3 of 13 competitive matches.
- Cirencester have drawn 4 of 13 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTruro City or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Truro have a strong first-half home scoring record. Both teams have often been level at the break.
- Truro average 1.0 first-half goals at home.
- Truro concede 0.375 first-half goals at home.
- Truro were drawing at half-time in four of their last six matches.
- Cirencester were drawing at half-time in two of three known recent matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTruro City or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away goal totals suggest an open game.
- Truro home matches average 2.75 total goals.
- Cirencester away matches average 3.63 total goals.
- Cirencester's last six matches had four over 2.5 goals.
- Truro's last six matches had two over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Truro's home defence is strong enough to shut out a tier-nine side.
- Truro kept three clean sheets in eight home matches.
- Cirencester kept one clean sheet in eight away matches.
- Truro concede only 0.63 at home.
- Cirencester's away scoring is against lower-level opposition.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Truro's home scoring rate points to at least two goals.
- Truro average 2.13 goals at home.
- Truro scored 2+ in their two most recent home wins (2-0, 4-1).
- Cirencester concede 1.88 per away match.
- Truro's home total goals average 2.75.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTruro City over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The step up in opponent quality likely limits Cirencester to under two goals.
- Cirencester average 1.75 away but against lower-level sides.
- Truro concede only 0.63 at home.
- Cirencester failed to score in two of their last four away matches.
- Truro kept five clean sheets in 13 competitive games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCirencester Town under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cirencester have enough away scoring output to find a goal.
- Truro conceded in five of eight home matches.
- Cirencester score 1.75 goals per away match.
- Cirencester scored in five of eight away matches.
- Truro's home clean sheet rate is 3 of 8.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCirencester Town to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Truro are very likely to score at home.
- Truro average 2.13 goals at home.
- Truro scored in 10 of 13 competitive matches.
- Cirencester concede 1.88 goals per away match.
- Cirencester kept only one away clean sheet in eight.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTruro City to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cirencester often score, so a Truro win may not be to nil.
- Truro kept three clean sheets in eight home matches.
- Cirencester scored 1.75 goals per away match.
- Cirencester scored in five of eight away matches.
- Truro have six home wins.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Early goals are common in both teams' recent matches.
- Truro home first-half total average is 1.375 goals.
- Cirencester away first-half total average is 1.5 goals.
- Four of Truro's last six first halves had a goal.
- Cirencester's three known recent first halves all had a goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Truro's early defence makes both teams scoring early unlikely.
- Truro kept first-half clean sheets in four of their last six.
- Cirencester's first-half scoring sample is only three matches.
- Truro concede only 0.375 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Truro may manage the game without many late goals.
- Truro's home second-half total average is 1.375 goals.
- Cirencester's away second-half data covers only two matches.
- Truro conceded only 0.25 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.17 price requires 85.5%, above our 78.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W

W1-0Truro CityvCirencester TownNov 2, 2021FA

W0-1Cirencester TownvTruro CityDec 15, 2015FA

D2-2Truro CityvCirencester TownDec 12, 2015FA

Truro City unbeaten in 3 meetingsTruro City: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Truro City

W2-1Maidstone UtdSep 26NAT

W2-0Merthyr TownSep 22FAC

D1-1Merthyr TownSep 19FAC

L0-1SalisburySep 15NAT

D1-1Walton & HershamSep 12NAT

W4-1Leicester City U21Sep 8NAT

W3-1Chesham UnitedSep 5NAT

L0-1Dorking WanderersAug 31NAT

W3-0Dagenham & RedbridgeAug 29NAT

W2-0Tonbridge AngelsAug 22NAT

W2-1Southampton U21Aug 18NAT

D0-0Chelmsford CityAug 15NAT

W2-0MaidenheadAug 8NAT

L0-1PlymouthJul 25FRI

W1-0Exeter CityJul 18FRI

Cirencester Town

W2-1Farnham TownSep 22FAC

D2-2Farnham TownSep 19FAC

W3-0FleetlandsSep 5FAC

L0-2Reading CityAug 5FAC

D0-0Reading CityAug 2FAC

L2-4Swindon SupermarineJul 22FRI

L0-7Fairford TownAug 3FAC

L0-5Gloucester CityJul 23FRI

W3-0Welwyn Garden CityApr 27NON

W3-2Hertford TownApr 20NON

W3-0Barton RoversApr 13NON

D1-1BiggleswadeApr 6NON

W3-1AFC Kempston RoversMar 30NON

W2-1Biggleswade TownMar 26NON

D2-2Leighton TownMar 23NON

Squad & Injuries

Truro City

27 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Cirencester Town

16 available

Attackers3

Midfielders7

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Draw

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Truro City

No

No

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Markets to Avoid

Truro City

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Truro City

Cirencester Town

Squad & Injuries

Truro City

Cirencester Town