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Predictions graded

Salisbury FC5Dulwich Hamlet0

HT 2–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–381%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 04:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Salisbury's home scoring meets Dulwich's away record in this FA Cup third qualifying round tie, with Salisbury back from Kuwait only two days before kick-off.

Salisbury are the likelier winners and goals look likely, but the reviewed prices — 1.4 home win, 1.5 over 2.5 goals, 1.67 both teams to score — sit shorter than the cases for them, so none is worth taking.

Context

Salisbury's own announcement placed the first team in Kuwait from 27 September to 1 October, with a friendly against Al-Qadsia at the Mohammad Al-Hamad stadium on 30 September. That gave the squad long-haul travel and a game against full-time top-flight opposition in the week before this tie, instead of a normal domestic build-up. The club has not published which players started in Kuwait or how many minutes the regulars played, so the effect on Saturday's selection and sharpness is uncertain.
- Salisbury said on 21 September that the first team would be in Kuwait from 27 September to 1 October 2026.
- The trip included a friendly against Kuwaiti Premier League side Al-Qadsia at the Mohammad Al-Hamad stadium on 30 September.
- Salisbury returned on 1 October, two days before the third qualifying round tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Dulwich said on 2 October that the tie would not be segregated, having spoken with Salisbury, and asked Hamlet fans to enter via the away turnstiles at the south end. A mixed, unsegregated crowd is unusual for a cup tie involving a club with Dulwich's travelling support and changes the matchday environment around the fixture. The evidence does not give the stadium's capacity or the likely away following, so it should not be read as a signal about attendance or crowd size.
- Dulwich Hamlet said on 2 October that the tie would not be segregated, following conversations with Salisbury.
- Hamlet supporters were asked to enter through the away turnstiles at the south end of the stadium.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:03 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the two clubs' first FA Cup meeting, and both are one win from a landmark: Salisbury would set a new club record run, while Dulwich would reach the fourth qualifying round for the first time in six years. The winner also takes a place in the final round before the First Round Proper, which sharpens the stakes of a single knockout tie. These are FA Cup records and cover only this competition, not any earlier league meetings between the sides.
- The third qualifying round tie is the first FA Cup meeting between Salisbury and Dulwich Hamlet.
- A Salisbury win would set a new club record FA Cup run; a Dulwich win would take the club into the fourth qualifying round for the first time in six years.
- Salisbury beat Taunton Town 4-1 on 19 September to reach this round.
- Dulwich beat East Grinstead Town 4-0 on 5 September and Welling United 4-1 on 19 September to reach this round.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Salisbury's home form is the clearest single number behind their position in this tie.
Dulwich have to contain a side averaging three goals a game on its own pitch, and the visitors' away record offers little comfort. Salisbury's single home defeat in that run is a reminder that six matches is a small sample, not a guarantee.
- Salisbury played six home matches between 8 August and 26 September 2026, winning five and losing one.
- They scored 18 goals across those six matches, an average of 3.0 per game, and scored in every one.
- They conceded 0.67 goals per home match and kept three home clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both teams' matches tend to produce goals, with Salisbury scoring heavily at home.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 59.9%

−3.9ppshort

Both teams score regularly enough, and Dulwich's away games often feature goals at both ends.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Salisbury FC

1.40fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71.4%

−16.4ppshort

Salisbury's strong home record and scoring rate give them the better chance, while Dulwich have struggled away.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Salisbury's strong home record and scoring rate give them the better chance, while Dulwich have struggled away.
- Salisbury have 5 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in 6 home matches.
- Salisbury average 3.0 goals scored per home match.
- Dulwich have 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in 6 away matches.
- Dulwich average 1.83 goals conceded per away match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSalisbury FCEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Salisbury's strong first-half home scoring gives them a good chance to lead at the break.
- Salisbury average 1.33 first-half goals at home.
- Salisbury concede 0.33 first-half goals per home match.
- Dulwich average 0.67 first-half goals away.
- Dulwich concede 0.5 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSalisbury FCEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Salisbury's second-half home scoring and Dulwich's weak away second-half defence favour a home second-half win.
- Salisbury average 1.67 second-half goals at home.
- Salisbury concede 0.33 second-half goals at home.
- Dulwich average 0.5 second-half goals away.
- Dulwich concede 1.33 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSalisbury FCEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salisbury's strong home record and scoring rate give them the better chance, while Dulwich have struggled away. Draws have been rare for both teams, but a cup tie can stay level.
- Salisbury have 5 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in 6 home matches.
- Salisbury average 3.0 goals scored per home match.
- Salisbury have drawn 3 of 11 matches overall.
- Dulwich have drawn 1 of 13 matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSalisbury FC or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salisbury's strong first-half home scoring gives them a good chance to lead at the break. Both teams often score early, but a tight cup tie could see a level first half.
- Salisbury average 1.33 first-half goals at home.
- Salisbury concede 0.33 first-half goals per home match.
- Salisbury were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6 matches.
- Dulwich were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSalisbury FC or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals8 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams' matches tend to produce goals, with Salisbury scoring heavily at home.
- Salisbury home matches average 3.67 total goals.
- Dulwich away matches average 3.0 total goals.
- Salisbury overall average 2.73 total goals per match.
- Dulwich overall average 3.38 total goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams score regularly enough, and Dulwich's away games often feature goals at both ends.
- Salisbury have both scored and conceded in 6 of 11 matches.
- Dulwich have both scored and conceded in 7 of 13 matches.
- Dulwich away matches have seen both teams score in 4 of 6.
- Salisbury home matches have seen both teams score in 3 of 6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salisbury's home scoring rate is high, and Dulwich concede regularly away.
- Salisbury have scored 18 goals in 6 home matches, averaging 3.0.
- Salisbury have scored in all 6 home matches.
- Dulwich have conceded in all 6 away matches.
- Dulwich average 1.83 goals conceded per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSalisbury FC over 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dulwich's away scoring average is below 1.5, and Salisbury's home defence is strong.
- Dulwich average 1.17 goals per away match.
- Dulwich have scored 7 goals in 6 away matches.
- Salisbury average 0.67 goals conceded per home match.
- Salisbury have conceded 4 goals in 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonDulwich Hamlet under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dulwich often find the net away, making a Salisbury clean sheet less likely.
- Dulwich have scored in 4 of 6 away matches.
- Salisbury have conceded in 3 of 6 home matches.
- Dulwich average 1.17 goals scored per away match.
- Salisbury have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDulwich Hamlet to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salisbury score regularly at home, so Dulwich are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Salisbury have scored in all 6 home matches.
- Salisbury have scored in 10 of 11 matches overall.
- Dulwich have 0 clean sheets in 6 away matches.
- Salisbury average 3.0 goals scored per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSalisbury FC to scoreEstimated chance95%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salisbury often win without a clean sheet, and Dulwich usually score away.
- Salisbury have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches, but won 5.
- Dulwich have scored in 4 of 6 away matches.
- Dulwich average 1.17 goals scored per away match.
- Salisbury average 0.67 goals conceded per home match.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dulwich have no away clean sheets and Salisbury score at home, so an away win-to-nil is very unlikely.
- Dulwich have won 2 of 6 away matches.
- Dulwich have 0 clean sheets in 6 away matches.
- Salisbury have scored in all 6 home matches.
- Salisbury average 3.0 goals scored per home match.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance96%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score in the first half regularly, making at least one goal likely.
- Salisbury average 1.33 first-half goals at home.
- Dulwich average 0.67 first-half goals away.
- Salisbury concede 0.33 first-half goals at home.
- Dulwich concede 0.5 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salisbury's home first-half defence and Dulwich's modest away scoring make both teams scoring early unlikely.
- Salisbury concede only 0.33 first-half goals at home.
- Dulwich concede 0.5 first-half goals away.
- Dulwich average 0.67 first-half goals away.
- Salisbury average 1.33 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half numbers point to goals after the break.
- Salisbury average 1.67 second-half goals at home.
- Dulwich average 0.5 second-half goals away.
- Salisbury concede 0.33 second-half goals at home.
- Dulwich concede 1.33 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance66%

Recent Form

Salisbury FC

W2-0Folkestone InvictaSep 26NAT

W4-1Taunton TownSep 19FAC

W1-0Truro CitySep 15NAT

D1-1Ebbsfleet UnitedSep 12NAT

W5-1Slough TownSep 8NAT

D1-1Chelmsford CitySep 5NAT

W1-0Billericay TownAug 31NAT

L1-2Maidstone UtdAug 29NAT

L1-2Hemel Hempstead TownAug 22NAT

D0-0HorshamAug 15NAT

W5-0Hampton & RichmondAug 8NAT

W5-0Havant & WvilleJul 31FRI

L0-3Frome TownJul 25FRI

W3-1Wimborne TownJul 18FRI

L2-3Bristol RoversJul 11FRI

Dulwich Hamlet

L1-2Hastings UnitedSep 26FA

W4-1Welling UnitedSep 19FAC

W2-1Brentwood TownSep 12NON

W4-0East Grinstead TownSep 5FAC

W3-2LeatherheadAug 31NON

D2-2Three BridgesAug 29NON

L0-1Wingate & FinchleyAug 22NON

W2-0CheshuntAug 15NON

L1-3Chatham TownAug 11NON

W6-0Maldon & TiptreeAug 8NON

W1-0Dorking WanderersJul 28FRI

L1-3Tonbridge AngelsJul 25FRI

W2-1Hashtag UnitedApr 25NON

W2-0Burgess Hill TownApr 18NON

L0-2Welling UnitedApr 11NON

Squad & Injuries

Salisbury FC

35 available

Attackers4

Midfielders16

Defenders9

Goalkeeper6

Dulwich Hamlet

1 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders1

Goalkeeper0