Estonian CupFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

FC Tallinn0Harju Laagri10

HT 0–3Sat 3 Oct 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 11:10 · Europe/Bucharest

A second-tier side hosting top-flight opposition: Laagri are unbeaten in four previous meetings but have lost four of six away matches with no away clean sheet, while FC Tallinn average two goals a game at home.

Laagri's division and unbeaten record still make them the likelier winners, but the 4.33 on FC Tallinn to win or draw and the 8.5 on FC Tallinn carry the most, with 1.95 on both teams scoring and 3.0 on under 2.5 goals also offering something.

Context

Laagri hold the historical edge in this fixture, though it comes from a season when both clubs were in the same division.
Laagri won 2-1 at home on 3 August 2024 and 2-0 away on 27 October 2024, with the March and June meetings both finishing 1-1. Two of the four games were level, so the fixture has not been one-sided in scoreline even though Laagri never lost it. The counterweight for this tie is Laagri's away form in the current window, where they have lost four of six matches and kept no clean sheet.
- 2024-10-27: FC Tallinn 0-2 Laagri in Esiliiga A.
- 2024-08-03: Laagri 2-1 FC Tallinn in Esiliiga A.
- 2024-06-29: Laagri 1-1 FC Tallinn; 2024-03-09: FC Tallinn 1-1 Laagri.
Laagri's road record is the part of their profile most likely to shape how this cup tie is played.
They conceded in all six of those away fixtures, so a visiting clean sheet has not happened anywhere in the current window. They still scored at 1.5 goals per away game, and the two wins show the record is not purely one-directional. Meeting a home side that scores twice a game on its own ground, that concession rate is the number that stands out.
- Six away matches from 5 July to 13 September 2026: two wins, no draws, four defeats.
- 1.5 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per away match across those six games.
- No clean sheets recorded in the away split across the six matches.
On 22 September, FC Tallinn won 5–0 in an Estonian Cup match against Harju JK Laagri U21, with a penalty among the five goals. The naming overlap makes the result useful context before FC Tallinn face Harju Laagri. It was against the U21 side, so it is not a direct result against the scheduled opponent and does not provide a reliable selection or tactical read for this tie.
- FC Tallinn beat Harju JK Laagri U21 5–0 in an Estonian Cup match on 22 September 2026.
- The goals came in the 25th, 67th-minute penalty, 77th, 88th and 90+1st minutes.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 11:07 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore match centrewww.flashscore.co.uk · 22 Sep 2026
One heavy home defeat is the clearest caution in FC Tallinn's recent record.
Levadia II led 2-0 at half-time on 13 September and added three more goals after the break, with FC Tallinn's reply also coming in the second half. The 13 September result is the widest margin in the six most recent matches listed for FC Tallinn and shows what happens when they concede early at home. It remains a single match rather than a pattern, and it came against a different opponent from the one they face in this cup tie.
- 2026-09-13: FC Tallinn 1-5 FCI Levadia II in Esiliiga A, played at home.
- Half-time score 0-2; FC Tallinn's only goal came in the second half.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Laagri compete a division higher and have avoided defeat in every previous meeting with FC Tallinn.
- Laagri play in Meistriliiga; FC Tallinn play in Esiliiga A
- Laagri unbeaten in four meetings with FC Tallinn (2 wins, 2 draws)
- Laagri 7W 1D 7L overall, averaging 2.07 goals scored per match
- Laagri's away split: 2W 0D 4L, 1.5 scored and 1.83 conceded per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarju LaagriEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves are low-yielding, making a level opening period the most likely single outcome.
- First-half goals average 1.0 per match across the two teams' last 12 fixtures combined
- FC Tallinn first half: 0.6 for, 1.0 against; Laagri: 1.07 for, 0.67 against
- Only 3 of those 12 recent matches were goalless at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves here project to around two goals, which still leaves plenty of room for a level period.
- Second-half goals average 1.83 per match across the two teams' last 12 fixtures
- FC Tallinn 0.93 second-half goals for and 0.67 against overall; Laagri 1.0 and 0.73
- Laagri's last six matches produced only 8 second-half goals in total
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Tallinn score two a game at home and Laagri have lost four of six away matches without keeping an away clean sheet. Laagri compete a division higher and have avoided defeat in every previous meeting with FC Tallinn.
- FC Tallinn home record: 4W 1D 3L in 8, averaging 2.0 scored and 1.875 conceded
- Harju Laagri away record: 2W 0D 4L in 6, conceding 1.83 per game with no away clean sheet
- Laagri play in Meistriliiga; FC Tallinn play in Esiliiga A
- Laagri unbeaten in four meetings with FC Tallinn (2 wins, 2 draws)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Tallinn or Harju LaagriEstimated chance73%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' venue splits and FC Tallinn's recent scorelines point to a high-scoring cup tie.
- FC Tallinn's 8 home matches average 3.88 goals (2.0 for, 1.875 against)
- Laagri's 6 away matches average 3.33 goals (1.5 for, 1.83 against)
- FC Tallinn's last 6 matches produced 21 goals
- Laagri conceded in all six away matches and scored in five of them
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Laagri score regularly but have not kept an away clean sheet, while FC Tallinn score two a game at home.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Laagri's 6 away matches
- FC Tallinn scored in 6 of 8 home matches and conceded in 6 of 8
- Laagri scored in at least five of six away matches and conceded in all six
- Both teams scored in 9 of Laagri's 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Tallinn score freely at home against a defence that has conceded in every Laagri away game.
- FC Tallinn average 2.0 goals per home match across 8 games
- Laagri concede 1.83 per away match and kept no away clean sheet
- FC Tallinn scored twice or more in only 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Tallinn over 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Laagri's away scoring has been modest overall and they have been limited to a goal or less in half of their recent games.
- Laagri scored one goal or none in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Laagri's away average is 1.5 goals across 6 matches
- FC Tallinn kept 2 clean sheets in 8 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostHarju Laagri under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Laagri's scoring record makes a home clean sheet the less likely outcome.
- FC Tallinn conceded in 6 of 8 home matches, averaging 1.875 against
- Laagri scored in five of six away matches
- Laagri average 2.07 goals per match overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHarju Laagri to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Tallinn's home scoring and Laagri's away concession rate both point to the visitors conceding.
- FC Tallinn scored in 6 of 8 home matches
- Laagri conceded in all six away matches at 1.83 per game
- FC Tallinn average 2.0 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFC Tallinn to scoreEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half numbers and recent matches point to at least one goal before the break.
- First-half goals average 1.0 per match across the two sides' last 12 fixtures combined
- FC Tallinn first half: 0.6 for, 1.0 against; Laagri: 1.07 for, 0.67 against
- Only 3 of those 12 recent matches were goalless at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides blank in the first half often enough that one team failing to score before the break is the likelier case.
- FC Tallinn scored before half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Laagri scored before half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- FC Tallinn average 0.6 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves produce around two goals, with FC Tallinn especially active after the break at home.
- FC Tallinn's home second halves average 2.25 goals combined (1.375 for, 0.875 against)
- Laagri's away second halves average 2.0 goals combined (1.0 for, 1.0 against)
- 14 of the 21 goals in FC Tallinn's last six matches came after half-time
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance57%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 2W

L0-2FC TallinnvLaagriOct 27, 2024ESI

L2-1LaagrivFC TallinnAug 3, 2024ESI

D1-1LaagrivFC TallinnJun 29, 2024ESI

D1-1FC TallinnvLaagriMar 9, 2024ESI

Harju Laagri unbeaten in 4 meetings2.3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

FC Tallinn

W5-0Harju JK Laagri U21Sep 22CUP

D1-1ElvaSep 19ESI

L1-5FCI Levadia IISep 13ESI

W2-1ViimsiSep 3ESI

L0-2Nõmme Kalju IIAug 29ESI

L1-2FCI Levadia IIAug 23ESI

D1-1Nõmme United IIAug 20ESI

L0-1MaarduAug 15ESI

D1-1Tallinna KalevAug 8ESI

W1-0Flora IIAug 1ESI

W4-1Tallinna FC ZapoosJul 28CUP

W2-0Tartu WelcoJul 18ESI

L0-3ElvaJul 11ESI

W4-3Nõmme United IIJul 4ESI

L0-4FCI Levadia IIJun 21ESI

Harju Laagri

D0-0KuressaareSep 18MEI

W2-1PaideSep 13MEI

L2-3VaprusSep 9MEI

L0-2TammekaSep 6MEI

W2-1Nõmme UnitedAug 29MEI

W1-0Kalju NommeAug 22MEI

L1-2FC Levadia TallinnAug 16MEI

W3-1TamperAug 11CUP

L2-3KuressaareAug 7MEI

L0-1Flora TallinnAug 2MEI

W8-0Rae SpordikoolJul 23CUP

W5-2PaideJul 19MEI

W3-0Trans NarvaJul 10MEI

L1-2TammekaJul 5MEI

L1-3Nõmme UnitedJun 20MEI

Squad & Injuries

FC Tallinn

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Harju Laagri

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

FC Tallinn0Harju Laagri10

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

FC Tallinn or Draw

FC Tallinn

Yes

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

FC Tallinn

Harju Laagri

Squad & Injuries

FC Tallinn

Harju Laagri