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Predictions graded

Ebbsfleet United1Sholing2

HT 1–1Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges0–50%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 04:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Ebbsfleet United, a division above Sholing, meet a visitor that has won both FA Cup ties without conceding and kept four clean sheets on the road.

The home side should come through, most likely in a low-scoring tie. Under 2.5 goals at 2.6, "both teams to score" No at 1.91, the draw at 5.75 and Under 0.5 first-half goals at 3.8 each offer something at the quoted price; Ebbsfleet to win at 1.3 does not.

Context

Sholing have come through two rounds without conceding, and a win at Ebbsfleet would equal their best FA Cup run, the 2020/21 campaign that Torquay United ended at the fourth qualifying round. Their earlier wins came against Wessex Premier side Andover New Street and divisional rivals Tiverton Town, so a National League South side playing a division above is the clearest test of the run. Reaching the fourth qualifying round would also put them into the round where the National League clubs enter.
- Sholing beat Andover New Street 2-0 in the first qualifying round and Tiverton Town 1-0 in the second.
- Sholing's only previous fourth qualifying round appearance came in 2020/21, when Torquay United ended their run.
- Sholing's previous opponents were Wessex Premier side Andover New Street and divisional rivals Tiverton Town.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:49 · Europe/BucharestLook ahead: Sholing (H)ebbsfleetunited.co.uk · 2 Oct 2026
Magri is Sholing's captain and played for Ebbsfleet between 2017 and 2019, making him the clearest personal link between two clubs meeting for the first time. He has started Sholing's FA Cup ties this season, and Ebbsfleet's own preview of the tie flags him as a likely starter at his former ground. The reunion adds a storyline without changing either side's set-up, and the selection detail remains a projection rather than a confirmed team sheet.
- Sam Magri played for Ebbsfleet United from 2017 to 2019 and is a likely starter for Sholing in the tie.
- Magri captains Sholing in the Southern League Premier South and started their first qualifying round win over Andover New Street.
- Magri was named Sholing's man of the match for a home win at the end of August.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:49 · Europe/BucharestLook ahead: Sholing (H)ebbsfleetunited.co.uk · 2 Oct 2026
Sholing travel to face a side a division above them, and their results on the road have been the firmest part of their season so far.
Sholing's five away matches between 25 April and 19 September 2026 brought three wins, one draw and one defeat, with four clean sheets, which is the main reason a tight, low-scoring tie is plausible despite the gap in divisions. The sample is small and came against league and cup opponents from their own level, so Ebbsfleet at home is a clear step up. It supports a close contest rather than a comfortable home win.
- Sholing away split, 25 April to 19 September 2026: 5 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat.
- Sholing kept 4 clean sheets across those 5 away matches.
Ebbsfleet and Sholing have never played each other, so neither side has a head-to-head pattern to plan around. Ebbsfleet sit a division higher in the non-league pyramid, at National League South level, while Sholing play in the Southern Premier South. Sholing's history sits in the Hampshire and Wessex leagues and their origin as shipbuilder Vosper Thornycroft's works team, which underlines the gap in status on cup day.
- The FA Cup third qualifying round tie at Ebbsfleet is the first competitive meeting between the clubs.
- Sholing previously played in the Hampshire and Wessex leagues and began as the works team of shipbuilder Vosper Thornycroft.
- Ebbsfleet play in National League South, one division above Sholing's Southern Premier South.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 04:49 · Europe/BucharestLook ahead: Sholing (H)ebbsfleetunited.co.uk · 2 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ebbsfleet play a division higher, are unbeaten at home and concede little, while Sholing's clean-sheet run has come against lower-level opposition.
- Ebbsfleet: 4W-2D-1L in 7 competitive matches, 1.71 scored and 0.71 conceded per game
- Ebbsfleet at home: 1W-2D-0L, 5 goals scored and 1 conceded across 3 matches
- Sholing sit one division below in the Southern Premier South
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEbbsfleet UnitedEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ebbsfleet start strongly, with eight first-half goals across seven matches and two in each of their last two games.
- Ebbsfleet first-half goals for: 1.14 per match, against 0.43
- Ebbsfleet scored 2 first-half goals in each of their last two matches
- Sholing first-half goals against: 0.58 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostEbbsfleet UnitedEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ebbsfleet concede very little after the break and Sholing have conceded more second-half goals than they score.
- Ebbsfleet second-half goals against: 0.29 per match
- Sholing second-half goals against: 0.75 per match
- Ebbsfleet's stronger squad is likely to tell later in the tie
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostEbbsfleet UnitedEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ebbsfleet play a division higher, are unbeaten at home and concede little, while Sholing's clean-sheet run has come against lower-level opposition. Ebbsfleet's home matches have been close, with two goalless or one-goal draws in their recent home run.
- Ebbsfleet: 4W-2D-1L in 7 competitive matches, 1.71 scored and 0.71 conceded per game
- Ebbsfleet at home: 1W-2D-0L, 5 goals scored and 1 conceded across 3 matches
- Ebbsfleet have drawn 2 of their last 3 home matches
- Ebbsfleet's 7 competitive matches produced 2 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancelostEbbsfleet United or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ebbsfleet start strongly, with eight first-half goals across seven matches and two in each of their last two games. Sholing have been tight before the break, especially away, making a level first half a realistic outcome.
- Ebbsfleet first-half goals for: 1.14 per match, against 0.43
- Ebbsfleet scored 2 first-half goals in each of their last two matches
- Sholing have conceded 0.5 first-half goals per match
- Sholing's away first-half goals against average is 0.2
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonEbbsfleet United or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals6 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Both sides' home and away splits point to a tight cup tie with few clear chances.
- Ebbsfleet home: 5 goals for and 1 against in 3 matches
- Sholing away: 4 scored and 1 conceded in 5 matches
- Sholing have 6 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Ebbsfleet's defence is the strongest part of their record and Sholing have been very hard to score against on the road.
- Sholing away: 1 goal conceded in 5 matches
- Ebbsfleet kept 3 clean sheets in 7 competitive matches
- Sholing's last 6 matches produced 3 clean sheets for them
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sholing's away defensive record suggests Ebbsfleet will not run up a big score at home.
- Ebbsfleet scored 1 in each of their two most recent home matches
- Ebbsfleet home average is 1.67 goals across 3 matches
- Sholing conceded 1 goal in 5 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonEbbsfleet United under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ebbsfleet's home defensive record makes it unlikely Sholing score twice.
- Sholing away: 4 goals in 5 matches
- Ebbsfleet home: 1 goal conceded in 3 matches
- Ebbsfleet concede 0.71 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSholing under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sholing have scored in almost every competitive match this season, making a blank at Ebbsfleet less likely.
- Sholing average 1.42 goals per competitive match
- Sholing scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Ebbsfleet conceded in 4 of 7 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSholing to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ebbsfleet score consistently and have been putting up multiple goals in recent wins.
- Ebbsfleet scored in 5 of 7 competitive matches
- Ebbsfleet scored 2, 3 and 2 in three of their last four matches
- Sholing conceded 6 goals in 12 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEbbsfleet United to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ebbsfleet's clean sheets have not been frequent enough to make a winning shutout the likely outcome.
- Sholing scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Ebbsfleet kept only 3 clean sheets in 7 matches
- Ebbsfleet's two most recent home matches ended without a home win
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score before half-time at a rate that makes at least one first-half goal likely.
- Ebbsfleet average 1.14 first-half goals per match
- Sholing average 0.83 first-half goals per match
- Ebbsfleet scored two first-half goals in each of their last two matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Neither side concedes often before half-time, so both scoring in the opening period looks unlikely.
- Sholing's away first-half goals against average is 0.2
- Ebbsfleet concede 0.43 first-half goals per match
- Sholing average 0.83 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score less after the break than before it, pointing to a quieter second period.
- Ebbsfleet second-half goals for 0.57 and against 0.29 per match
- Sholing second-half goals for 0.58 and against 0.75 per match
- Sholing's away second-half goals against average is 0.4
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Recent Form

Ebbsfleet United

W2-1Tonbridge AngelsSep 26NAT

W3-1MaidenheadSep 19FAC

D1-1SalisburySep 12NAT

D0-0Hemel Hempstead TownSep 8NAT

W2-0Walton & HershamSep 5NAT

L1-2GillinghamJul 31FRI

W3-2Cray Valley PMJul 28FRI

D1-1Cardiff METJul 24FRI

L1-2West Ham United U21Jul 21FRI

W4-1AveleyJul 14FRI

L0-4WycombeJul 11FRI

L1-2DartfordJul 7FRI

D0-0Canvey IslandJul 4FRI

L0-2WorthingApr 25NAT

W4-0Hampton & RichmondApr 18NAT

Sholing

W1-0Tiverton TownSep 19FAC

L1-3Plymouth ParkwaySep 12NON

W2-0Andover New StreetSep 5FAC

W1-0Gosport BoroughAug 31NON

L1-3Bracknell TownAug 29NON

L2-4Chertsey TownAug 22NON

D0-0Hanwell TownAug 15NON

W1-0Poole TownAug 11NON

L1-2Bath CityAug 8NON

W1-0Folkestone InvictaJul 25FRI

W3-2Bognor Regis TownJul 18FRI

L1-2WokingJul 11FRI

W4-0Dorchester TownApr 25NON

D2-2Wimborne TownApr 18NON

L1-2Farnham TownApr 11NON

Squad & Injuries

Ebbsfleet United

21 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper1

Sholing

3 available

Attackers1

Midfielders1

Defenders1

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Draw

No

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 10 landed

Recent Form

Ebbsfleet United

Sholing

Squad & Injuries

Ebbsfleet United

Sholing