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Predictions graded

Buxton0South Shields2

HT 0–1Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–1033%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 16:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Buxton host South Shields a week after losing 4-0 to them, with a place in the fourth qualifying round at stake.

Buxton have scored in all six home matches tracked, while South Shields' away games brought three 1-0 wins and a 0-6 loss at Hereford, so the home side not losing is the likeliest outcome. Both teams not to score at 3.25, fewer than three goals at 3.6 and Buxton to win or draw at 1.75 are the prices that hold up.

Context

Buxton's XI for the tie differs in three positions from the side that started the 4-0 league defeat at Mariners Park a week earlier. The incoming players occupy different areas of the pitch, so the team at the Silverlands is unlikely to be a straight rerun of that afternoon. The team sheet sets the personnel but not the roles or the reasoning behind them, so this reads as a selection signal rather than a settled plan.
- Trueman, Cooper and Johnston start for Buxton in the FA Cup tie against South Shields.
- Brockbank, Pescatore and Mee drop out of the starting XI for the same match.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 16:36 · Europe/Bucharest
The 4-0 league win at Mariners Park on 26 September is the freshest shared reference point between the clubs, and the cup tie follows seven days later. The venue flips to the Silverlands, so Buxton get the home setting this time rather than the away trip that produced the heavy defeat. A single league scoreline carries limited weight in a knockout tie, so the rematch is the story rather than a reliable guide to the outcome.
- South Shields beat Buxton 4-0 at Mariners Park on 26 September in the National League North.
- Scott, Blackett, Kelly and McGurk scored for South Shields in that match.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 16:36 · Europe/BucharestShields face Buxton in the FA Cupwww.southshieldsfc.co.uk · 2 Oct 2026
South Shields played a rearranged league match at Brackley Town on 29 September, three days after the 4-0 win over Buxton and four days before this tie. Buxton have had a clear week since that league meeting. The extra competitive minutes and the trip south are a plausible preparation factor, but nothing available establishes rotation plans or how heavy the load was, so this stays a possible effect rather than a settled one.
- South Shields won 3-2 at Brackley Town in a rearranged National League North match on 29 September.
- The rearranged fixture sat between the 26 September league meeting with Buxton and the 3 October FA Cup tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 16:36 · Europe/BucharestShields face Buxton in the FA Cupwww.southshieldsfc.co.uk · 2 Oct 2026
Victory takes the club into the fourth qualifying round, the stage at which the 24 National League clubs enter the competition, with the first round proper following on 7 November. For two sixth-tier sides this is the last step before the draw opens up to full-time opposition. The stakes are identical on both sides, so they raise the value of the tie without pointing to a winner.
- The Buxton v South Shields tie is an FA Cup third qualifying round fixture.
- The fourth qualifying round brings in the 24 National League clubs, with the first round proper on 7 November.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 16:36 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Buxton's strong home form and recent home record against South Shields make them slight favourites.
- Buxton home: 5W-0D-1L, 2.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
- Buxton scored in all 6 home matches.
- South Shields away: 3W-0D-1L, 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
- Buxton unbeaten at home vs South Shields in last two meetings (1-0, 1-1).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBuxtonEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.75
The read
First halves at Buxton have often been level.
- Buxton home first-half draws: 2 of last 4 home matches.
- South Shields away first half: 1 win and 1 loss in last 2 away matches.
- Buxton home first-half goals against average: 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Buxton have been strong after half-time at home.
- Buxton home second-half goals scored average: 1.33.
- Buxton home second-half goals against average: 0.33.
- Buxton won the second half in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- South Shields away second-half goals scored average: 0.25.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBuxtonEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Buxton's strong home form and recent home record against South Shields make them slight favourites. South Shields have the stronger overall record and just beat Buxton heavily.
- Buxton home: 5W-0D-1L, 2.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
- Buxton scored in all 6 home matches.
- South Shields overall: 8W-2D-2L in 12 competitive matches.
- South Shields won the last H2H 4-0 on 26 September.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBuxton or South ShieldsEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Buxton have often started strongly at home. First halves at Buxton have often been level.
- Buxton home first-half goals scored average: 1.0.
- Buxton home first-half goals against average: 0.5.
- Buxton home first-half draws: 2 of last 4 home matches.
- South Shields away first half: 1 win and 1 loss in last 2 away matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostBuxton or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals4 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently.
- Buxton overall total goals average: 3.36 per game.
- South Shields overall total goals average: 2.75 per game.
- 5 of Buxton's last 6 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- 4 of South Shields' last 6 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Buxton score regularly at home and South Shields have scored in most away games.
- Buxton home both teams scored: 4 of 6 matches.
- Buxton scored in all 6 home matches.
- South Shields scored in 3 of 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Buxton's home scoring rate makes two goals likely.
- Buxton home goals scored average: 2.33 per game.
- Buxton scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
- Buxton scored in all 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBuxton over 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
South Shields' away goals have been scarce in the tracked matches.
- South Shields away goals scored average: 0.75 per game.
- South Shields away wins were both 1-0 in the tracked sample.
- South Shields lost 0-6 at Hereford away.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSouth Shields under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
South Shields have usually found a goal away from home.
- South Shields scored in 3 of 4 away matches.
- South Shields scored 4 in the last H2H.
- Buxton conceded in 4 of 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSouth Shields to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Buxton's perfect home scoring record makes a South Shields clean sheet unlikely.
- Buxton scored in all 6 home matches.
- Buxton home goals scored average: 2.33 per game.
- South Shields away conceded in 1 of 4 matches (the 0-6 loss).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBuxton to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
South Shields usually score away, so a Buxton win to nil is unlikely.
- Buxton home clean sheets: 2 of 6.
- South Shields away scored in 3 of 4 matches.
- Last H2H finished 4-0 to South Shields.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Buxton's home scoring makes a South Shields win to nil less likely.
- Buxton scored in all 6 home matches.
- South Shields away conceded in 1 of 4 matches (the 0-6 loss).
- South Shields kept clean sheets in 3 of 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent games have usually produced a first-half goal.
- Buxton home first-half total goals average: 1.5.
- South Shields away first-half total goals average: 1.25.
- 4 of Buxton's last 6 matches had a first-half goal.
- 5 of South Shields' last 6 matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have often been low-scoring, especially for Buxton.
- Buxton recent second halves: over 1.5 in 3 of 6 matches.
- South Shields away second-half total goals average: 1.0.
- Buxton home second-half goals against average: 0.33.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L4-0South ShieldsvBuxtonSep 26, 2026NAT

L1-0South ShieldsvBuxtonMay 2, 2026NAT

D1-1BuxtonvSouth ShieldsJan 3, 2026NAT

D2-2South ShieldsvBuxtonAug 30, 2025NAT

W1-0BuxtonvSouth ShieldsFeb 11, 2025NAT

South Shields: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Buxton

L0-4South ShieldsSep 26NAT

W1-0Ashton UnitedSep 19FAC

W3-1ChesterSep 12NAT

W5-0Brackley TownSep 8NAT

L0-4MorecambeSep 5NAT

W2-1Merthyr TownAug 31NAT

W3-2Oxford CityAug 28NAT

L1-2Hebburn TownAug 22NAT

L1-2Bedford TownAug 18NAT

D1-1SouthportAug 15NAT

W2-1HerefordAug 8NAT

W2-1Warrington TownAug 1FRI

W2-0ScunthorpeJul 21FRI

W1-0Ashton UnitedJul 10FRI

L1-3SC BragaJul 7FRI

South Shields

W4-0BuxtonSep 26NAT

W7-0Witton AlbionSep 19FAC

L0-6HerefordSep 12NAT

W2-1MarineSep 8NAT

W1-0Hednesford TownSep 5NAT

D1-1Spalding UnitedAug 31NAT

D1-1Merthyr TownAug 22NAT

W1-0MorecambeAug 18NAT

W2-1ChorleyAug 15NAT

W1-0Scarborough AthleticAug 8NAT

W4-1GatesheadJul 28FRI

L1-2Harrogate TownJul 21FRI

D1-1Sunderland U21Jul 18FRI

L0-2Kidderminster HarriersMay 9NAT

W1-0BuxtonMay 2NAT

Squad & Injuries

Buxton

16 available

Attackers3

Midfielders5

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

South Shields

19 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders5

Goalkeeper1

Buxton0South Shields2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

Buxton or Draw

Draw

Buxton or Draw

Draw

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Buxton

South Shields

Squad & Injuries

Buxton

South Shields