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Predictions graded

Tammeka Tartu4Viimsi1

HT 2–0Fri 2 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions15–0100%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 16:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Top-flight Tammeka host second-tier Viimsi in a one-off Tipner Cup last-16 tie at Tamme staadion, with the winner into the quarter-final.

Tammeka are the likelier winners, but 1.62 on the home win asks more than a recent run of four defeats in six supports. Five quoted prices offer something: Viimsi to win at 4.2, under 2.5 goals at 3, a first-half goal at 1.2, both teams not to score at 2.63 and not both teams to score before half-time at 1.25.

Context

The Tipner Cup round of 16 is a single-leg knockout, so a quarter-final place is decided on the night at Tamme staadion. Tammeka host on their own pitch, with kick-off at 18:00 and gates opening at 17:00. That winner-takes-all condition is the fixture's defining feature and sets it apart from a routine league round. The fixture listing carries no detail on expected line-ups or squad availability, so selection remains open.
- Tartu JK Tammeka host Viimsi JK in the Estonian Tipner Cup round of 16 on Friday 2 October 2026.
- Kick-off at Tamme staadion is 18:00, with gates opening at 17:00.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 16:27 · Europe/BucharestTartu Kultuuriaken event listing: Dorpat Ehitus presents Tartu JK Tammeka – Viimsi JK, Estonian Tipner Cupkultuuriaken.tartu.ee · 1 Oct 2026
Tammeka's home matches have produced goals at a rate the rest of their record does not match.
The home scoring rate is the standout number in Tammeka's record, and they found the net in five of those six matches. The qualification is that the two home defeats, 0-2 to Paide on 9 September and 1-3 to Kalju Nomme on 20 September, fell at the end of that window, so the average is carried by the earlier games. Viimsi conceded in five of their six away matches in the second tier.
- Tammeka's six home matches, 5 July to 20 September 2026: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats; 4.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per match; scored in 5 of 6; 2 clean sheets.
Viimsi's travelling record is the strongest part of their sample, but it was built entirely in the second tier.
All six of those matches were in the second tier, one level below Tammeka's Meistriliiga, so the record carries that qualification. Viimsi scored in five of the six and kept only one clean sheet, which matters against a host that scored in five of six home games. Whether that away form transfers to a knockout tie on a top-flight ground is unknown.
- Viimsi's six away matches, 27 July to 13 September 2026: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats; 2.17 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match; scored in 5 of 6; 1 clean sheet.
Tammeka's recent scoring at home and their collapse at Levadia sit side by side in the same month.
The defeat is the heaviest result in Tammeka's six-match window and the clearest evidence in the record that their defence can be opened up. It came in the league rather than the cup, and it is one match rather than a pattern; Tammeka's home scoring average points the other way. Viimsi's last two league games ended 0-1 and 0-2 without a goal, so both sides arrive with mixed recent form.
- 17 September 2026, Meistriliiga at Levadia Tallinn: Tammeka lost 0-6, trailing 0-3 at half-time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tammeka play a division higher and score heavily at home, while recent head-to-head results favour them.
- Tammeka overall: 9W-0D-6L, 2.6 goals scored per match.
- Tammeka home: 4W-0D-2L, 4.33 goals scored per home match.
- Viimsi away: 4W-0D-2L, 2.17 goals scored per away match, but in Esiliiga A.
- H2H: Tammeka beat Viimsi 2-0 in 2026 and 5-0 in 2023.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTammeka TartuEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Tammeka start strongly at home and Viimsi are modest scorers before half-time on their travels.
- Tammeka first-half home: 2.17 goals scored, 0.83 conceded per match.
- Viimsi first-half away: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded per match.
- Tammeka recent 6: scored first-half goals in 3 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonTammeka TartuEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tammeka are very strong after half-time at home, scoring heavily and conceding little.
- Tammeka second-half home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded per match.
- Viimsi second-half away: 1.5 scored, 0.67 conceded per match.
- Tammeka recent 6: won the second half in 1 match, drew 3, lost 2.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonTammeka TartuEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tammeka play a division higher and score heavily at home, while recent head-to-head results favour them. Viimsi have a strong away record and can punish a Tammeka side that has conceded five times in their last six.
- Tammeka overall: 9W-0D-6L, 2.6 goals scored per match.
- Tammeka home: 4W-0D-2L, 4.33 goals scored per home match.
- Viimsi overall: 8W-1D-6L, 2.4 goals scored per match.
- Viimsi away: 4W-0D-2L, 2.17 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away match.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTammeka Tartu or ViimsiEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Tammeka start strongly at home and Viimsi are modest scorers before half-time on their travels. Both teams have moderate first-half scoring rates, so a level first half is possible.
- Tammeka first-half home: 2.17 goals scored, 0.83 conceded per match.
- Viimsi first-half away: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded per match.
- Tammeka first-half home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTammeka Tartu or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals10 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams play high-scoring matches on average, and Tammeka's home games have produced plenty of goals.
- Tammeka matches average 4.4 total goals (2.6 for, 1.8 against).
- Viimsi matches average 3.6 total goals (2.4 for, 1.2 against).
- Tammeka home matches average 5.5 total goals (4.33 for, 1.17 against).
- H2H produced a 5-0 and a 1-1, with one 2-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Viimsi score regularly away from home and Tammeka have conceded in five of their last six, so both teams finding the net is plausible.
- Tammeka home: both teams scored in 3 of 6 matches.
- Viimsi away: both teams scored in 4 of 6 matches.
- Tammeka recent 6: both teams scored in 3 matches; Viimsi recent 6: both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tammeka score heavily at home and have found the net in almost every home game.
- Tammeka home: 4.33 goals scored per home match.
- Tammeka scored in 5 of 6 home matches.
- Viimsi away: 1.0 goals conceded per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTammeka Tartu over 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Head-to-head history shows Viimsi struggling to score against Tammeka, and Tammeka's home defence is relatively tight.
- Viimsi away: 2.17 goals scored per away match, so under 1.5 requires a low output.
- H2H: Viimsi scored 0, 1 and 0 in the three meetings.
- Tammeka home: 1.17 goals conceded per home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonViimsi under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Viimsi find the net regularly on the road and Tammeka have conceded in most home games.
- Viimsi away: scored in 5 of 6 away matches.
- Tammeka home: conceded in 4 of 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonViimsi to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tammeka's home scoring record makes it very likely they will score, so Viimsi are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Tammeka home: scored in 5 of 6 home matches, averaging 4.33 goals.
- Viimsi away: only 1 clean sheet in 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTammeka Tartu to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even if Tammeka win, Viimsi often score, so a win without conceding is not the likely outcome.
- Viimsi away: scored in 5 of 6 away matches.
- Tammeka home: 4 wins but only 2 clean sheets.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
First-half goals are common for Tammeka at home, and their recent matches have all produced a first-half goal.
- Tammeka first-half home: 2.17 goals scored, 0.83 conceded = 3.0 total per match.
- Viimsi first-half away: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded = 1.0 total per match.
- Tammeka recent 6: all six matches had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Recent matches rarely feature both teams scoring before half-time, so the no side is favoured.
- Tammeka recent 6: both teams scored in the first half in 2 matches.
- Viimsi recent 6: both teams scored in the first half in 0 matches.
- Viimsi first-half away: 0.67 scored per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves produce around two or more goals on average, so over 1.5 is likely.
- Tammeka second-half home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded = 2.5 total per match.
- Viimsi second-half away: 1.5 scored, 0.67 conceded = 2.17 total per match.
- Tammeka recent 6: second-half total goals of 2 or more in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 1W

L2-0TammekavViimsiFeb 15, 2026FRI

D1-1TammekavViimsiDec 3, 2023MEI

W0-5ViimsivTammekaNov 29, 2023MEI

3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Tammeka Tartu

L1-3Kalju NommeSep 20MEI

L0-6FC Levadia TallinnSep 17MEI

W3-1KuressaareSep 13MEI

L0-2PaideSep 9MEI

W2-0LaagriSep 6MEI

L2-3Flora TallinnSep 2MEI

W2-0Trans NarvaAug 30MEI

W3-1Flora TallinnAug 26MEI

W1-0KuressaareAug 22MEI

W1-0Nõmme UnitedAug 14MEI

W1-0Rumori CalcioAug 5CUP

L1-5Kalju NommeAug 2MEI

W19-0Zealot SportingJul 24CUP

L1-5VaprusJul 11MEI

W2-1LaagriJul 5MEI

Viimsi

L0-2Tartu WelcoSep 17ESI

L0-1Nõmme United IISep 13ESI

W5-0ElvaSep 10ESI

L1-2FC TallinnSep 3ESI

W3-1Tartu WelcoAug 29ESI

W4-1Nõmme United IIAug 24ESI

L1-2Flora IIAug 21ESI

W5-0FCI Levadia IIAug 15ESI

W4-1HeliosAug 12CUP

W2-1MaarduAug 8ESI

L1-2Tallinna KalevAug 3ESI

W3-0Nõmme United IIJul 27ESI

W4-0Nomme Utd U19Jul 23CUP

L1-3ElvaJul 16ESI

D2-2Nõmme Kalju IIJul 11ESI

Squad & Injuries

Tammeka Tartu

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper5

Viimsi

25 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Viimsi

No

No

Tammeka Tartu or Draw

Tammeka Tartu

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals10 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Tammeka Tartu

Viimsi

Squad & Injuries

Tammeka Tartu

Viimsi