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Predictions graded

Hungary1Georgia0

HT 1–0Fri 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 26–8On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 16:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Two winless sides on one point each, with neither having scored in Group B2, and no Nations League game involving either has produced more than one goal.

Hungary's poor home record against Georgia's three away defeats makes Hungary the more likely winner, without much conviction. Hungary at 2.00, the first-half draw at 2.15, at least one first-half goal at 1.36 and Georgia at 3.5 all ask for more than the records support; none of those prices is worth taking.

Context

Georgia sacked Willy Sagnol after their opening 0-1 home loss to Northern Ireland and promoted Under-21 coach Ramaz Svanadze through 2028, so Hungary face a side still settling under new leadership. Svanadze's first match, a 0-0 draw with Ukraine in Tbilisi, brought a reshaped starting XI, leaving selection and shape hard to predict. The counterpoint is that Georgia created little against a heavily rotated Ukraine in that game, so the change reflects deeper problems rather than a straightforward swing for either side.
- The Georgian FA named Ramaz Svanadze, previously in charge of the Under-21 side, as head coach in place of Willy Sagnol, on a contract to the end of 2028.
- Sagnol left after Georgia's 0-1 home defeat by Northern Ireland, ending a 58-game spell of 25 wins, 10 draws and 23 defeats that included qualification for Euro 2024.
- Svanadze's first match was the 0-0 home draw with Ukraine on 28 September, which left Georgia on one point from two games.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 16:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Both teams are level on one point after two rounds, so the Budapest game is the clearest chance either has to claim a first win in League B Group B2. Georgia have already used both home fixtures, meaning they must now collect points on the road, while Hungary need a response in front of their own crowd after a home defeat by Ukraine. The stakes are symmetrical, and neither two-game record separates the sides enough to make the outcome obvious.
- Georgia have one point after two rounds, following a 0-1 home loss to Northern Ireland and a 0-0 home draw with Ukraine.
- Hungary also sit on one point, having lost 1-0 at home to Ukraine and drawn 0-0 in Belfast.
- Georgia's opening two Group B2 fixtures were both at home, making the trip to Hungary the start of their away schedule.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 16:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Bolla started Hungary's goalless draw in Belfast and had to come off after 34 minutes, which briefly threatened to remove a defensive option for the visit of Georgia. The federation then indicated the problem is less serious than it first appeared, easing concerns about Hungary's back line before a match they need to win. It is not confirmation that he will play, so his involvement in Budapest still depends on a final assessment.
- Bolla was replaced by Attila Osváth in the 34th minute of Hungary's 0-0 draw with Northern Ireland on 28 September after picking up an injury.
- The Hungarian football federation said Bolla's injury is not as serious as it looked during the Belfast match, as reported by MTI.
- B. Bolla started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- A. Osváth started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when B. Bolla did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 16:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Hungary's need for a home win in Budapest runs straight into the weakest part of their recent record.
Five competitive home matches is a small sample, but the direction is consistent: Hungary have lost four of them and conceded twice per game. Georgia's away form is poor in its own right, so this does not settle the fixture, though it does mean a home win cannot be assumed simply because the visitor has struggled on the road. Both teams scored in two of the five and Hungary kept one clean sheet.
- Hungary's five competitive home matches in the tracked window (23 March 2025 to 25 September 2026): 1 win, 0 draws, 4 defeats.
- They averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match in that sample.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the 5, and Hungary kept 1 clean sheet.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.36fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 73.5%

−5.5ppshort

Both teams' competitive first-half totals suggest a goal before the break is more likely than not.

First Half WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.15fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 46.5%

−1.5ppshort

Both teams have started recent matches cautiously, making a level first half a strong possibility.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hungary

2.00fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 50%

−6.0ppshort

Hungary's home record is poor, but Georgia's away form is worse and Hungary have shown they can score at home against weaker opposition.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
Hungary's home record is poor, but Georgia's away form is worse and Hungary have shown they can score at home against weaker opposition.
- Hungary have won 1 of 5 competitive home matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 per game.
- Georgia have lost all 3 competitive away matches, conceding 2.67 per game.
- Both teams have one point from two Nations League matches.
- Hungary scored 2+ in 2 of their last 3 home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHungaryEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Both teams have started recent matches cautiously, making a level first half a strong possibility.
- Hungary have drawn the first half 0-0 in two of their last three competitive matches.
- Georgia's last two Nations League matches were 0-0 at half-time.
- Hungary average 0.6 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring is low, making a level second half the most likely single outcome.
- Hungary drew the second half 0-0 in their last Nations League match.
- Georgia drew the second half 0-0 in their last Nations League match.
- Both teams average fewer second-half goals than first-half goals.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hungary's home record is poor, but Georgia's away form is worse and Hungary have shown they can score at home against weaker opposition. Both teams have started the Nations League with low-scoring, cautious matches, so a draw is a plausible outcome.
- Hungary have won 1 of 5 competitive home matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 per game.
- Georgia have lost all 3 competitive away matches, conceding 2.67 per game.
- Both teams are on one point from two Nations League matches.
- Hungary's last two competitive matches were a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 defeat.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHungary or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Georgia's away first halves have been poor, so Hungary are the most likely side to lead at the break. Both teams have started recent matches cautiously, making a level first half a strong possibility.
- Hungary average 0.6 first-half goals at home and concede 1.0.
- Georgia average 0 first-half goals away and concede 2.0.
- Hungary have drawn the first half 0-0 in two of their last three competitive matches.
- Georgia's last two Nations League matches were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHungary or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have conceded regularly in competitive matches, but recent Nations League games have been low-scoring.
- Hungary's competitive matches average 2.78 total goals (1.22 for, 1.56 against).
- Georgia's competitive matches average 3.33 total goals (1.44 for, 1.89 against).
- Georgia's away matches average 3.33 total goals (0.67 for, 2.67 against).
- Both teams' last two Nations League matches produced one goal or fewer.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent Nations League evidence shows both teams struggling for goals, making a clean sheet for at least one side likely.
- Hungary have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 competitive matches.
- Georgia have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Neither team has scored in their two Nations League matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hungary's recent home scoring is modest and their Nations League start has been goal-shy, so staying under 1.5 team goals is plausible.
- Hungary average 1.2 goals per competitive home match.
- Hungary have scored 0 in two Nations League matches.
- Hungary have scored 1 or 0 in 3 of 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHungary under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Georgia's away scoring record is very low, making under 1.5 team goals the more likely outcome.
- Georgia average 0.67 goals per competitive away match.
- Georgia have scored 1 or 0 in all three away qualifiers.
- Georgia failed to score in two of their last three competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGeorgia under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Both teams' competitive first-half totals suggest a goal before the break is more likely than not.
- Hungary's competitive matches average 1.56 first-half goals.
- Georgia's competitive matches average 2.0 first-half goals.
- Georgia's three away qualifiers all had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been limited in recent games, making under 1.5 the more likely outcome.
- Hungary's overall competitive matches average 1.22 second-half goals.
- Georgia's overall competitive matches average 1.33 second-half goals.
- Both teams' last Nations League matches produced no second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent Nations League corner counts are modest, so under 8.5 is slightly more likely.
- Hungary's competitive home matches average 7.8 total corners.
- Georgia's competitive away matches average 9.0 total corners.
- Hungary's last two Nations League matches had 5 and 6 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined home and away shot averages sit below the line, making under 24.5 the more likely outcome.
- Hungary's competitive home matches average 23.0 total shots.
- Georgia's competitive away matches average 22.33 total shots.
- Georgia's last two Nations League matches had 21 and 23 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 24.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away averages are below 8.5, making under the more likely outcome.
- Hungary's competitive home matches average 8.0 total shots on target.
- Georgia's competitive away matches average 7.67 total shots on target.
- Hungary's last Nations League match had 4 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches involving both teams have produced enough cards to clear 3.5.
- Hungary's competitive home matches average 5.0 total cards.
- Georgia's last two Nations League matches produced 6 and 4 total cards.
- Hungary's last two Nations League matches produced 6 and 8 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance68%

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Hungary Relegation Playoffs	2	0	1	1	0-1	1	DL
4	Georgia Relegation	2	0	1	1	0-1	1	DL

Hungary in relegation zoneGeorgia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Hungary

D0-0Northern IrelandSep 28UEF

L0-1UkraineSep 25UEF

W3-1KazakhstanJun 9FRI

W2-1FinlandJun 5FRI

D0-0GreeceMar 31FRI

W1-0SloveniaMar 28FRI

L2-3Rep. Of IrelandNov 16WOR

W1-0ArmeniaNov 13WOR

D2-2PortugalOct 14WOR

W2-0ArmeniaOct 11WOR

L2-3PortugalSep 9WOR

D2-2Rep. Of IrelandSep 6WOR

W2-1AzerbaijanJun 10FRI

L0-2SwedenJun 6FRI

L0-3TürkiyeMar 23UEF

Georgia

D0-0UkraineSep 28UEF

L0-1Northern IrelandSep 25UEF

W2-0BahrainJun 5FRI

D1-1RomaniaJun 2FRI

W2-0LithuaniaMar 29FRI

D2-2IsraelMar 26FRI

L1-2BulgariaNov 18WOR

L0-4SpainNov 15WOR

L1-4TürkiyeOct 14WOR

L0-2SpainOct 11WOR

W3-0BulgariaSep 7WOR

L2-3TürkiyeSep 4WOR

D1-1Cape Verde IslandsJun 8FRI

W1-0Faroe IslandsJun 5FRI

W6-1ArmeniaMar 23UEF

Squad & Injuries

Hungary

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Georgia

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3