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Predictions graded

Czechia0England2

HT 0–0Tue 29 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 6–22On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 1–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 09:26 · Europe/Bucharest

England's away run — five straight competitive wins — meets a Czechia side unbeaten in five of six home competitive matches in front of a full Eden, with five England players withdrawn.

England remain the more likely winners, but 1.43 on them asks too much. The 2.7 for Czechia to avoid defeat, 6.0 for a Czechia win, 1.8 for Czechia level or ahead at half-time, 6.0 for Czechia to lead at the break and 1.91 for both teams to score all carry an edge.

Context

England's squad for this window was named on 18 September, and five of those players had withdrawn within three days, with only James Garner and Morgan Gibbs-White added. Rice and Mainoo were central midfielders in that group and Palmer was an attacker Tuchel had recalled, so the pool available in Prague is materially different from the one announced. The losses matter more because England play their second game in four days there, inside a four-match window. BBC Sport reported the withdrawals and the Telegraph and Daily Express led on them, but no diagnosis or return date has been published, so how much of the absence is short-term remains unknown.
- England confirmed on 21 September that Tino Livramento, Kobbie Mainoo, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford and Declan Rice had withdrawn from the Nations League squad through injury issues.
- James Garner and Morgan Gibbs-White were called up in their place.
- BBC Sport reported Rice was among five players ruled out ahead of the window, and the Daily Telegraph and Daily Express both led on the same five withdrawals.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Denia took charge of Czechia after the summer, and his first squad, for the Croatia and England home games, differs sharply from the group that played at the World Cup. The list circulating on 23 September has seven players out, seven additions and nine returns, so the starting XI in Prague is being picked from players with little shared recent international time. Local coverage has already pushed back: Deník's Martin Jůzek argued the selection looked closer to the previous era than a clean break. The specific list comes from a single international-window account rather than the federation's own channels, so the exact composition should be treated as reported rather than settled.
- Czechia's Nations League squad was overhauled after its initial announcement, with Matěj Ryneš, David Jurásek, Tomáš Vlček, David Zima, Lukáš Provod, Denis Višinský and Tomáš Chorý listed as out.
- Seven players came in, including Jiří Sláma, Lukáš Ambros, Roman Macek, Matěj Radosta, Ondřej Kričfaluši, Martin Šubert and Daniel Vašulín.
- Nine players returned to the squad, among them Antonín Kinský, Alex Král, Ondřej Lingr and Adam Karabec.
- iDNES Sport reported that Denia had just completed his first squad announcement and answered questions in a first press appearance framed mostly in general terms.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:24 · Europe/Bucharest
England play four Nations League matches in 11 days, with the Prague trip falling second, three days after the home opener against Spain. The window closes with a second meeting with Czechia at Wembley on 6 October, so England face the same opponent twice inside eight days. That gives Tuchel a reason to distribute minutes across the squad rather than treat this as a standalone fixture, and the five withdrawals leave him fewer senior bodies to spread. The schedule itself is published and repeated across national-team reporting; what is not yet documented is how heavily he intends to rotate in Prague.
- England's fixtures run Spain at home on 26 September, Czechia away on 29 September, Croatia away on 3 October and Czechia at home on 6 October.
- The traditional September and October international windows were combined into one extended three-week break under the revised calendar.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:24 · Europe/Bucharest
England's squad named on 18 September was the first since the World Cup and brought Trent Alexander-Arnold back for the first time since June 2025 while handing Rio Ngumoha and Alex Scott their first competitive senior call-ups. A group that already mixed established names with newcomers then lost five players to withdrawals, so the depth behind the first-choice XI is being tested inside a single window. For Prague the practical question is how much of that newer group Tuchel uses on the second matchday, three days after the opener. The squad was widely reported on 18 September, but no federation channel appears in these results, so the exact composition is best treated as reported.
- Thomas Tuchel's England squad recalled Trent Alexander-Arnold and Cole Palmer, with Rio Ngumoha and Alex Scott receiving first senior competitive call-ups.
- Alexander-Arnold's inclusion was his first in an England squad since June 2025.
- The 27-man list was the first England squad since the 2026 World Cup.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:24 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
England's away form and scoring record make them the stronger side despite the absentees.
- England are W5 D0 L0 away in competitive matches, averaging 3.6 goals for and 1.2 against.
- England are W8 D1 L1 overall in competitive matches and scored in 9 of 10.
- England won 2 of the last 3 meetings with Czechia.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEnglandEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often reach half-time level and England's away first-half defence is strong.
- Czechia have not conceded a first-half goal in six home competitive matches.
- England have conceded only 0.2 first-half goals per away match.
- Four of Czechia's last six and four of England's last six first halves ended 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
England's away second-half scoring makes them the stronger side after the break.
- England score 1.8 second-half goals per away competitive match.
- Czechia concede 0.83 second-half goals per home match.
- England overall score 1.5 second-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonEnglandEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
England's schedule and absences make a share of the points plausible if the game stays tight. England's away form and scoring record make them the stronger side despite the absentees.
- Czechia have drawn 2 of 6 home competitive matches.
- England have drawn only 1 of 10 competitive matches but play the second of four games in 11 days.
- England are W5 D0 L0 away in competitive matches, averaging 3.6 goals for and 1.2 against.
- England are W8 D1 L1 overall in competitive matches and scored in 9 of 10.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or EnglandEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often reach half-time level and England's away first-half defence is strong. England's away first-half scoring is strong enough to give them the edge before the break.
- Czechia have not conceded a first-half goal in six home competitive matches.
- England have conceded only 0.2 first-half goals per away match.
- England score 1.8 first-half goals per away competitive match.
- England's away first-half defence concedes only 0.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or EnglandEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
England's away games have been high-scoring and Czechia contribute goals at home.
- England's away competitive matches average 4.8 total goals.
- Czechia's home competitive matches average 2.66 total goals.
- Four of Czechia's last six and four of England's last six matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both teams have scored regularly and Czechia usually find a goal at home.
- Czechia scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches and England in 9 of 10.
- England scored in all five away competitive matches.
- Czechia scored in 4 of 6 home competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
England have scored at least twice in every recent away match and face a defence that leaked to Mexico.
- England average 3.6 goals per away competitive match.
- England scored 2+ in all three recent away matches: 6 at France, 3 at Mexico, 2 at Panama.
- Czechia conceded 3 goals to Mexico in their last home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonEngland over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
England's away scoring record points to them finding the net in Prague.
- England scored in all five away competitive matches, averaging 3.6 goals.
- England scored 3+ goals in three of their last six matches.
- Czechia kept clean sheets in only 3 of 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEngland to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Czechia's home scoring record and England's recent away concessions make a home goal likely.
- Czechia scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches and 4 of 6 home matches.
- England conceded 4 goals to France and 2 to Mexico in recent away matches.
- England's away defence concedes 1.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCzechia to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams have first-half scoring records that make at least one goal likely.
- England's away first-half total averages 2.0 goals.
- Czechia's home first-half total averages 1.33 goals.
- England overall score 1.2 first-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
England's away second halves have produced goals and Czechia concede chances at home.
- England's away second-half total averages 2.8 goals.
- Czechia's home second-half total averages 1.33 goals.
- Five of England's last six second halves had over 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have usually stayed below 12.5 total corners.
- Czechia's last six matches average 9.5 total corners.
- England's last six matches average 9.5 total corners.
- Czechia concede 3.33 corners per home match and England concede 5.0 per away match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent shot totals for both teams sit well below 32.5.
- Czechia's last six matches average 23.8 total shots.
- England's last six matches average 26.3 total shots.
- Czechia home shots total 15.3 and opponent shots 8.2 per match.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 32.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches have usually produced fewer than 12.5 total shots on target.
- Czechia's last six matches average 6.8 total shots on target.
- England's last six matches average 9.7 total shots on target.
- Czechia concede 2.83 shots on target per home match and England 4.0 per away match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance68%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 2W

L0-1CzechiavEnglandJun 22, 2021EUR

W2-1CzechiavEnglandOct 11, 2019EUR

L5-0EnglandvCzechiaMar 22, 2019EUR

England: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Czechia Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
3	England Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Czechia leads the leagueEngland leads the leagueCzechia in relegation zoneEngland in relegation zone

Recent Form

Czechia

L0-3MexicoJun 25WOR

D1-1South AfricaJun 18WOR

L1-2South KoreaJun 12WOR

W3-1GuatemalaJun 5FRI

W2-1KosovoMay 31FRI

W6-0GibraltarNov 17WOR

W1-0San MarinoNov 13FRI

L1-2Faroe IslandsOct 12WOR

D0-0CroatiaOct 9WOR

D1-1Saudi ArabiaSep 8FRI

W2-0MontenegroSep 5WOR

L1-5CroatiaJun 9WOR

W2-0MontenegroJun 6WOR

W4-0GibraltarMar 25WOR

W2-1Faroe IslandsMar 22WOR

England

W6-4FranceJul 18WOR

L1-2ArgentinaJul 15WOR

W3-0Costa RicaJun 10FRI

W1-0New ZealandJun 6FRI

L0-1JapanMar 31FRI

D1-1UruguayMar 27FRI

W2-0AlbaniaNov 16WOR

W2-0SerbiaNov 13WOR

W5-0LatviaOct 14WOR

W3-0WalesOct 9FRI

Squad & Injuries

Czechia

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

England

26 available

Attackers2

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Czechia0England2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Czechia or Draw

Czechia

Czechia or Draw

Czechia

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

BetBugs probabilities

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Czechia

England

Squad & Injuries

Czechia

England