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Predictions graded

AFC Fylde0Carlisle United2

HT 0–1Tue 29 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1127%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 05:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Fylde sit fourth and have won three straight away; Carlisle have gone five games without a win and lost 5-2 to Woking.

Fylde are the likelier winners, though the draw is live at Mill Farm. The prices worth taking are Fylde to win or draw at 1.53, Under 2.5 goals at 2.75, Fylde to win at 2.40 and both teams not to score at 2.80; Carlisle to win at 2.40 and Over 2.5 at 1.40 are not.

Context

Carlisle arrive at Mill Farm with one win in ten and 19th in the table, and their head coach has publicly opened the door to changes after the Woking collapse. Any reworking of selection or approach would land in a Tuesday-night away game against the division's in-form side, so personnel and preparation for this fixture are unsettled. Elliot, though, has said he expects to stay and to keep to his current path, and no decision on his position had been announced by 27 September, so the practical effect remains unconfirmed.
- Carlisle United head coach Rob Elliot said 'tough decisions' will have to be made following a 5-2 home defeat to Woking on 26 September that left the club 19th in the National League (BBC Sport Cumbria, 26 September).
- Elliot said he 'fully expect[s] to have a conversation with everyone [at the club] about the way we move forward' but is 'still fully confident' he is the right person to turn it around (News & Star, 26 September).
- Woking won 5-2 at Brunton Park with a John Marquis hat-trick, leaving Carlisle five games without a win (Proper Football, 26 September).
- Elliot said he will not 'move away from what he believes in' as he tries to get Carlisle's season moving (BBC Sport Cumbria, 26 September).
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 05:40 · Europe/Bucharest
Mayor's 51st-minute strike was the only goal at Boston on 26 September and delivered a third straight away win that lifted Fylde to third in the National League. That run frames Tuesday's fixture: the home side's attacking midfielder is the player Carlisle's defence must handle, and he arrives in scoring form. The win came against a Boston side reduced to ten men, a modest counterweight to reading Mayor's form as a decisive edge.
- AFC Fylde's match report describes a Danny Mayor 'wonderstrike' giving them a 1-0 win at Boston United on 26 September (AFC Fylde, 26 September).
- The club said the result was a third away victory on the spin (AFC Fylde, 26 September).
- The National League's official DAZN account reported the win moved Fylde into third (National League on DAZN, 26 September).
- Reputable regional coverage billed the win as Danny Mayor firing Fylde to victory against 10-man Boston (Express & Star, 26 September).
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 05:40 · Europe/Bucharest
The away half of that split is the one that travels to Mill Farm on Tuesday.
Four away league games have given Carlisle two draws, two defeats and three goals, while five home games produced two wins. The side they bring on the road is the weaker half of their season, which is why 16th place understates how little they have taken from away fixtures.
- Table snapshot taken 24 September 2026: Carlisle had played 9 league games, with 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, 16 goals scored and 14 conceded, 10 points, 16th place.
- Away split in that record: 4 games, 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 3 goals scored and 5 conceded; home split: 5 games, 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat.
Elliot has been sent off twice in three games, so Carlisle's dugout for the trip to Fylde could be led by someone else if a charge follows. He already missed the Forest Green fixture through an accumulation of bookings, and the FA's review of the Eastleigh dismissal was still open when he took charge against Woking. With no ban confirmed for Tuesday by 27 September, this is a live possibility rather than a settled absence.
- Carlisle United confirmed head coach Rob Elliot was sent off after the final whistle of the defeat at Eastleigh on 19 September (Carlisle United, 19 September).
- Local reporting said the dismissal left Elliot facing a second touchline ban in three games (News & Star, 19 September).
- Elliot had already served a one-match touchline ban against Forest Green on 15 September over an accumulation of bookings (BBC Sport Cumbria, 14 September).
- On 25 September Elliot was reported to be on the touchline against Woking with the red card 'under review by the FA' (News & Star, 25 September).
To watchSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 05:40 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Fylde are the higher-placed side, in much better recent form and playing at home, although their own home results have been ordinary.
- AFC Fylde are 4th with 17 points from 9; Carlisle United are 16th with 10
- Fylde home league record: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss, 7 goals for and 6 against in 4 games
- Carlisle away league record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 3 goals for and 5 against in 4 games
- Carlisle have one win in their last seven league games, including a 5-2 home defeat by Woking on 26 September; Fylde won 1-0 at Boston on 26 September
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAFC FyldeEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring at these venues is sparse, which points towards a level opening period.
- Carlisle average 0.2 first-half goals per away game and 0.4 against
- Fylde average 0.25 first-half goals per home game and 0.75 against
- Fylde's last six league matches were level at half-time in two of them
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fylde do most of their scoring after the break, particularly at Mill Farm.
- Fylde average 1.5 second-half goals at home and concede 0.75
- Fylde scored in the second half of 5 of their last 6 league matches
- Carlisle average 0.6 second-half goals away and concede 0.6
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAFC FyldeEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Fylde are the higher-placed side, in much better recent form and playing at home, although their own home results have been ordinary. Both teams have drawn half of their matches in the relevant venue split, and neither has dominated these fixtures.
- AFC Fylde are 4th with 17 points from 9; Carlisle United are 16th with 10
- Fylde home league record: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss, 7 goals for and 6 against in 4 games
- Fylde have drawn 2 of 4 home league games; Carlisle have drawn 2 of 4 away
- Fylde have drawn 2 of 9 league games overall, Carlisle 4 of 9
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAFC Fylde or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves have been low-scoring for both sides, leaving Fylde only a modest edge in the period. Both teams' first-half scoring at these venues is sparse, which points towards a level opening period.
- Fylde average 0.89 first-half goals per game overall and 0.25 at home
- Carlisle average 0.33 first-half goals against per game and 0.4 away
- Carlisle average 0.2 first-half goals per away game and 0.4 against
- Fylde average 0.25 first-half goals per home game and 0.75 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostAFC Fylde or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals4 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fylde's matches have been consistently high-scoring and both defences give up regular goals.
- Fylde home league games have produced 13 goals in 4 matches (3.25 per game)
- Fylde's last six league matches finished with 3, 3, 5, 4, 4 and 2 goals
- Carlisle have kept no clean sheet in their last six league matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fylde find the net in almost every game and Carlisle score often enough away for both teams to register.
- Fylde have scored in all 9 league games and both teams scored in 8 of them
- Fylde scored in all 4 home league games and both teams scored in 3 of those 4
- Carlisle scored in 4 of 5 away matches in the tracked window and both teams scored in 3 of them
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fylde have reached two goals in three of their four home league games and Carlisle concede regularly on the road.
- Fylde have scored 7 goals in 4 home league games (1.75 per game)
- Fylde scored twice in three of their four home league games
- Carlisle have conceded in 4 of 5 away matches in the tracked window
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAFC Fylde over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Carlisle have been held to one goal or fewer in each of their last three away league games.
- Carlisle have scored 3 goals in 4 away league games
- Carlisle's last three away league matches produced 0, 1 and 1 goals for them
- Fylde's home league games have yielded 6 goals against in 4 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCarlisle United under 1.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fylde concede in the large majority of their matches and Carlisle find the net consistently.
- Fylde have conceded in 8 of 9 league games and in 3 of 4 at home
- Carlisle have scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Carlisle scored 2 at Southend on 12 September and 4 at home to Scunthorpe on 31 August
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCarlisle United to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fylde have found the net in every league match and score regularly at Mill Farm.
- Fylde have scored in all 9 league games and all 4 home league games
- Fylde average 2.22 goals per league game overall and 1.75 at home
- Carlisle have conceded in 4 of 5 away matches in the tracked window
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAFC Fylde to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fylde concede too regularly for a win without reply to be likely.
- Fylde have 1 clean sheet in 9 league games and have conceded in 8 of them
- Carlisle have scored in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Fylde have won 5 of 9 league games
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both sides have usually featured at least one first-half goal, even though the venue splits are low.
- Fylde's home games produce 1.0 first-half goals combined on average (0.25 for, 0.75 against)
- Carlisle's away games produce 0.6 first-half goals combined (0.2 for, 0.4 against)
- Fylde saw a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 league matches; Carlisle in 5 of 6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores often before the interval, making two first-half goals unlikely.
- Fylde have scored 1 first-half goal in 4 home league games
- Carlisle have scored 0.2 first-half goals per away game
- Fylde's last six league matches produced first-half both-teams-scoring in one; Carlisle's in two
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fylde's home second halves are busy and their recent games have usually produced two or more goals after the break.
- Fylde's home second halves average 2.25 goals combined
- Fylde's last six league matches produced over 1.5 second-half goals in five
- Carlisle's last six league matches produced over 1.5 second-half goals in three
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L0-2AFC FyldevCarlisleJul 19, 2025FRI

2 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	AFC Fylde Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	9	5	2	2	20-13	17	LWWDW
16	Carlisle United	9	2	4	3	16-14	10	LDDLW

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

AFC Fylde

L1-2AltrinchamSep 19NAT

W2-1Harrogate TownSep 15NAT

W4-1Yeovil TownSep 12NAT

D2-2WorthingSep 5NAT

W3-1Solihull MoorsAug 31NAT

W2-0Forest GreenAug 28NAT

L2-3WokingAug 22NAT

W2-1TamworthAug 15NAT

D2-2WealdstoneAug 8NAT

L0-2RylandsAug 1FRI

D1-1MorecambeJul 28FRI

L0-3WiganJul 25FRI

W3-0Longridge TownJul 21FRI

L1-2HuddersfieldJul 18FRI

W3-1Hyde UnitedJul 14FRI

Carlisle United

L0-1EastleighSep 19NAT

D1-1Forest GreenSep 15NAT

D2-2SouthendSep 12NAT

L1-2Boreham WoodSep 5NAT

W4-2ScunthorpeAug 31NAT

D1-1WealdstoneAug 28NAT

W4-1AFC HornchurchAug 22NAT

D1-1Yeovil TownAug 15NAT

L2-3WorthingAug 8NAT

W3-0Derby County U21Aug 1FRI

L0-2Salford CityJul 28FRI

W4-2Darlington 1883Jul 21FRI

W3-0Brackley TownApr 25NAT

W1-0Truro CityApr 18NAT

W3-0Sutton UtdApr 11NAT

Squad & Injuries

AFC Fylde

23 available

Attackers3

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Carlisle United

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

AFC Fylde or Draw

AFC Fylde

No

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

AFC Fylde

Carlisle United

Squad & Injuries

AFC Fylde

Carlisle United