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Predictions graded

Sweden3Poland1

HT 1–1Mon 28 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges4–450%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 12–18On targetOn target 6–7CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 08:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Poland return to Solna, where Sweden's 3-2 win in March ended their World Cup campaign, with promotion from League B the prize for both sides.

Sweden have conceded in all 12 competitive matches, so the draw or a Poland win at 1.88, both teams to score at 1.78 and Poland at 3.6 each carry a case. Sweden at 1.88 to win does not.

Context

Reports on 31 August said Lewandowski would join only for the Bosnia-Herzegovina game before flying back to his club in the United States; he denied that on 17 September and the squad named the next day included him. Because Poland play three matches in eight days, his presence for the whole camp shapes how Jan Urban staffs the 28 September game in Stockholm rather than the opener alone. The denial settles availability, not his starting role, and no line-up for either match has been published.
- Robert Lewandowski denied reports that he would come for the Bosnia-Herzegovina match and then return to the United States.
- A review of Poland's call-ups states that Lewandowski will be available to Jan Urban for the entire camp.
- R. Lewandowski started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:53 · Europe/Bucharest
The last meeting between the sides was Sweden's 3-2 win in March 2026, the result that carried Sweden to the World Cup and left Poland out of it, and Polish previews of this window still refer back to how the previous trip to Solna went. That recent history gives a Nations League opener unusual weight. What the earlier result does not settle is the line-ups: both squads differ from March, with Sweden missing Hien, Elanga and Widell Zetterström and Poland spreading minutes across three games in eight days.
- Sweden beat Poland 3-2 in the most recent meeting between the two sides, on 31 March 2026 in World Cup qualifying, played in Sweden.
- Polish coverage of the September call-ups points to the trip to Solna as a place where Poland recently fared badly.
- Sweden took their World Cup place through the qualifying play-off route, eliminating Ukraine and then Poland.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Lagerbielke was in the group named on 16 September, so this is a fresh loss rather than a planned absence, and Sweden answered it by bringing in John Mellberg. Potter's side face Romania on 25 September and then Poland three days later, which keeps the centre of defence a live selection question for the second match. The reporting names only the Romania fixture, so a return for the Poland game and the shape of the back line are unresolved.
- Fotbollskanalen reported Potter's message that Lagerbielke is likely to miss Sweden's Nations League opener against Romania.
- SportExpressen reported that John Mellberg was called into the Sweden squad after a further withdrawal.
- G. Lagerbielke started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 424 minutes across 5 appearances.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Hien's absence was set when Potter named the squad on 16 September and covers the entire window, so it applies to the Poland match three days after Sweden host Romania rather than to a single game. The defensive group was therefore assembled around the problem rather than adjusted in response to it. What stays open for the Stockholm fixture is who partners in central defence, because only the squad list has been published.
- Isak Hien was reported injured and absent when Sweden's squad for the opening Nations League window was announced on 16 September.
- Swedish squad coverage listed Hien among the window's absences alongside Anthony Elanga and Jacob Widell Zetterström.
- I. Hien started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 08:53 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a win over this same opponent in Solna five months ago leave Sweden just ahead in a close pairing.
- Sweden's home split in the window is 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in 5 matches
- Sweden beat Poland 3-2 in Solna on 31 March 2026 in the most recent meeting
- Poland's away split is 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in 5 matches
- Sweden are without centre-back Isak Hien and winger Anthony Elanga, both confirmed absentees
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSwedenEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
First halves in both teams' matches average barely more than one goal, which favours a level score at the break.
- Sweden average 1.33 total first-half goals in their matches
- Poland average 1.28 total first-half goals in their matches
- Sweden's last three matches (France, Japan, Netherlands) produced no Swedish first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side dominates the second period on the available numbers, so a level second half is the single most likely result.
- Sweden's second halves average 2.17 goals in total
- Poland's second halves average 1.64 goals in total
- Poland's away second halves average 1.8 goals in total
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a win over this same opponent in Solna five months ago leave Sweden just ahead in a close pairing. Poland's competitive record and scoring consistency are stronger than Sweden's, and their main forward is available for the full camp.
- Sweden's home split in the window is 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in 5 matches
- Sweden beat Poland 3-2 in Solna on 31 March 2026 in the most recent meeting
- Poland are 6-2-3 in 11 competitive matches, conceding 1.18 goals per game
- Poland scored two or more in five of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSweden or PolandEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sweden's home first-half numbers are their best split and Poland concede before the break on the road. First halves in both teams' matches average barely more than one goal, which favours a level score at the break.
- Sweden average 0.8 first-half goals at home and 0.6 conceded
- Poland average 1.0 first-half goals conceded away
- Sweden average 1.33 total first-half goals in their matches
- Poland average 1.28 total first-half goals in their matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSweden or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both sides' competitive matches run at close to three goals and Sweden concede in almost every game, which suits a higher total.
- Sweden's competitive matches average 3.5 goals in total (1.42 for, 2.08 against)
- Poland's competitive matches average 2.9 goals in total (1.73 for, 1.18 against)
- Sweden have kept no clean sheet in 12 competitive matches
- The March 2026 meeting in Solna finished 3-2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Both teams score and concede at similar high rates, and neither has been able to shut out opponents consistently.
- Sweden have both scored and conceded in 8 of 12 competitive matches
- Poland have both scored and conceded in 8 of 11 competitive matches
- Sweden have no clean sheet in 12 competitive matches
- The last meeting produced goals for both sides (3-2)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sweden have conceded in every competitive match covered, and Poland score at a steady rate.
- Sweden have conceded in all 12 competitive matches in the window
- Sweden concede 2.08 goals per game overall
- Poland average 1.73 goals per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPoland to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sweden have produced multi-goal games repeatedly, which makes a Poland shutout the less likely outcome.
- Sweden scored 3+ in three of their last six competitive matches (Ukraine, Poland, Tunisia)
- Sweden average 1.42 goals per game
- Poland's away split shows 4 conceded in 5 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSweden to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' opening periods average above one goal, so a goalless first half is the less likely outcome.
- Sweden's matches average 1.33 first-half goals in total
- Poland's matches average 1.28 first-half goals in total
- Poland conceded a first-half goal in two of their last three competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Neither side averages more than 0.75 first-half goals, so a half with goals for both is rare.
- Sweden average 0.58 first-half goals for and 0.75 against
- Poland average 0.64 first-half goals for and 0.64 against
- Sweden's last three matches produced at most one first-half goal in total for them
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals hover around two goals, putting two or more marginally ahead of the line.
- Sweden's second halves average 2.17 goals in total
- Poland's second halves average 1.64 goals in total
- Both teams' home and away second-half splits average 1.8 goals in total
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Overall corner totals for both teams fall below 10.5 per match, which slightly favours the under.
- Sweden's matches average 9.3 corners in total
- Poland's matches average 8.1 corners in total
- The March 2026 meeting had 11 corners, the highest of Sweden's last six
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches produce around 22 shots in total, well below the line.
- Sweden's matches average 22.3 total shots
- Poland's matches average 21.9 total shots
- Poland's highest combined total in their last six was 28, against Malta
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 27.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shots on target for both teams combined sit at about ten per match, marginally favouring the under.
- Sweden's matches average 9.4 shots on target in total
- Poland's matches average 10.3 shots on target in total
- Sweden's home split averages 8.2 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 1W

W3-2SwedenvPolandMar 31, 2026WOR

L2-0PolandvSwedenMar 29, 2022WOR

W3-2SwedenvPolandJun 23, 2021EUR

4 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Sweden Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
1	Poland Promotion	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Sweden leads the leaguePoland leads the leagueSweden in relegation zone

Recent Form

Sweden

L0-3FranceJun 30WOR

D1-1JapanJun 25WOR

L1-5NetherlandsJun 20WOR

W5-1TunisiaJun 15WOR

D2-2GreeceJun 4FRI

L1-3NorwayJun 1FRI

W3-2PolandMar 31WOR

W3-1UkraineMar 26WOR

D1-1SloveniaNov 18WOR

L1-4SwitzerlandNov 15WOR

L0-1KosovoOct 13WOR

L0-2SwitzerlandOct 10WOR

L0-2KosovoSep 8WOR

D2-2SloveniaSep 5WOR

W4-3AlgeriaJun 10FRI

Poland

D2-2NigeriaJun 3FRI

L0-2UkraineMay 31FRI

L2-3SwedenMar 31WOR

W2-1AlbaniaMar 26WOR

W3-2MaltaNov 17WOR

D1-1NetherlandsNov 14WOR

W2-0LithuaniaOct 12WOR

W1-0New ZealandOct 9FRI

W3-1FinlandSep 7WOR

D1-1NetherlandsSep 4WOR

L1-2FinlandJun 10WOR

W2-0MoldovaJun 6FRI

W2-0MaltaMar 24WOR

W1-0LithuaniaMar 21WOR

L1-2ScotlandNov 18UEF

Squad & Injuries

Sweden

26 available

Attackers3

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Poland

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Sweden3Poland1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Poland

Yes

Poland

Over 10.5

Over 2.5

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sweden

Poland

Squad & Injuries

Sweden

Poland