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Predictions graded

San Marino0Finland7

HT 0–3Sat 26 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–193%

Edges7–0100%

PossPossession 25%–75%ShotsShots 1–23On targetOn target 0–11CornersCorners 0–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 04:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Finland should win this League C Group 1 opener in San Marino: they took both 2023 meetings, 6-0 and 2-1, while San Marino have lost eight of nine competitive matches and concede 4.44 goals a game.

Of the quoted prices, Finland to win at 1.09, both teams not to score at 1.30, over 2.5 goals at 1.48 and a goal before half-time at 1.18 hold up; Finland to avoid defeat at 1.01 and to lead at half-time at 1.33 offer nothing.

Context

Tenho was one of the centre-backs named in Finland's squad for this Nations League window, so his withdrawal removes an option for the opening fixture while the rest of the defensive group is unchanged. It comes at the start of a four-match block, the part of the calendar where defensive cover across games matters most. The Finnish FA left open the possibility of Tenho rejoining later in the window, so the change applies to this fixture rather than the campaign. No replacement call-up was announced alongside the withdrawal.
- The Finnish FA announced on 21 September 2026 that centre-back Miro Tenho is out of Saturday's San Marino away match through injury.
- The same statement said Tenho's situation is being monitored and that he may link up with the squad later in the window.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:11 · Europe/Bucharest
The pressure is attached to selection rather than fitness, and Finland's opening fixture is the one in the window where the coach has the widest choice of personnel. Federation-level comment that Friis answers for results with the players he picks makes the San Marino team sheet a visible statement about his pecking order. The scrutiny is domestic and evaluative, so it reads as context around team selection rather than as evidence of a particular plan for Saturday. Friis has been in the job since March 2025 and had overseen 12 matches before this window.
- Finland's federation sporting director said in an interview published on 23 September 2026 that Jacob Friis 'carries responsibility for success with the players he chooses'.
- A Finnish writer framed the autumn Nations League fixtures as meaningful games Finland need to deliver in.
- Friis has led Finland since March 2025 and had taken charge of 12 matches by early September 2026.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Finland's autumn qualifying window also brought a 2-1 home win over Lithuania, so the Malta night was not their whole campaign.
The Malta match shows Finland's shot numbers and their results can point in different directions: Malta scored with their only shot on target, while Finland's eight produced nothing. San Marino will spend most of this game defending, so Finland should create chances again. Whether the finishing follows the volume is the part this result leaves open.
- 14 November 2025: Finland 0-1 Malta in World Cup qualification, with Finland recording 16 shots and 8 on target against Malta's 4 and 1, and 9 corners to 1.
Arifi's addition gives Finland another midfield option for the opening match of the window, confirmed only five days before kickoff. Because his club season has brought very little playing time, the inclusion reads as planning across the four-match block rather than a settled first-team role in Serravalle. Finnish journalists have queried the choice, so his involvement would be watched closely if he plays. He was added alongside a defensive reinforcement, and neither call-up came with a stated role for this fixture.
- Finland's FA announced on 21 September 2026 that midfielder Doni Arifi was joining the senior squad for the autumn Nations League matches.
- A Finnish writer noted the same day that Arifi had played 29 minutes for his club that season while Luka Hyryläinen, a player in the same position, remained with the under-21s.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 04:11 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.09
The read
Finland are much stronger and have a strong head-to-head record.
- Finland have won 4 of 11 competitive matches.
- They beat San Marino 6-0 and 2-1 in 2023.
- San Marino have lost 8 of 9 competitive matches, conceding 4.44 goals per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFinlandEstimated chance93%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Finland are likely to take an early lead against a weak San Marino side.
- Finland led at half-time in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- San Marino trailed at half-time in 5 of their last 6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFinlandEstimated chance74%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Finland should add goals after half-time.
- San Marino conceded 2.44 second-half goals per game.
- Finland scored in the second half in 4 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFinlandEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Draws are rare for San Marino, but Finland have shown vulnerability. Finland are much stronger and have a strong head-to-head record.
- San Marino have 0 draws in 9 competitive matches.
- Finland have 1 draw in 11 competitive matches.
- Finland have won 4 of 11 competitive matches.
- They beat San Marino 6-0 and 2-1 in 2023.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FinlandEstimated chance99%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Half-time draws are possible, especially if Finland start cautiously. Finland are likely to take an early lead against a weak San Marino side.
- San Marino were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6 matches (0-0 vs Bosnia).
- Finland were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6 (0-0 vs Malta).
- Finland led at half-time in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- San Marino trailed at half-time in 5 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FinlandEstimated chance99%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
San Marino's matches often feature many goals due to their heavy defeats.
- San Marino's last six competitive matches produced 5 overs (totals: 8,4,10,6,4,1).
- Finland's last six competitive matches had 4 overs.
- San Marino concede an average of 4.44 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
San Marino's attack is very weak and unlikely to break through.
- San Marino failed to score in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Finland kept clean sheets in 2 of 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Finland should score at least twice against the weakest defense.
- Finland scored 6 and 2 in the two 2023 meetings with San Marino.
- San Marino concede 4.44 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFinland over 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Marino rarely score, so Finland have a good chance of a clean sheet.
- Finland have 2 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
- San Marino have scored 3 goals in 9 competitive matches.
- San Marino failed to score in 5 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSan Marino not to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A comfortable Finland win without conceding is plausible.
- Finland won 6-0 and 2-1 against San Marino.
- They kept clean sheets in 2 of 11 competitive matches.
- San Marino failed to score in 5 of their last 6.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams' matches often see first-half goals.
- 5 of San Marino's last 6 and 5 of Finland's last 6 had at least one first-half goal.
- San Marino conceded 2.0 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance88%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Finland's dominance could lead to many corners.
- San Marino's last six matches averaged 6.5 total corners.
- Finland's last five averaged 9.4.
- Finland's match against Netherlands had 13 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly feature many shots.
- San Marino's matches average 26.8 total shots.
- Finland's average 24.3 total shots.
- San Marino conceded 21.1 shots per game.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 15.5Estimated chance90%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches consistently produce many shots on target.
- San Marino's matches average 10.9 total shots on target.
- Finland's average 8.9.
- All recent matches for both teams had over 5.5 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Finland's matches tend to have fewer cards, and San Marino's card count is inflated by heavy defeats.
- San Marino's last six had 3.66 total cards.
- Finland's last four had 2.25.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 23 price requires 4.3%, above our 1.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 2W

L1-2San MarinovFinlandNov 20, 2023EUR

L6-0FinlandvSan MarinoJun 19, 2023EUR

4.5 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	San Marino Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
2	Finland Promotion Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

San Marino leads the leagueFinland leads the leagueSan Marino in relegation zone

Recent Form

San Marino

L1-2AzerbaijanJun 9FRI

L1-2BangladeshJun 5FRI

D0-0AndorraMar 31FRI

L1-2Faroe IslandsMar 28FRI

L1-7RomaniaNov 18WOR

L0-1CzechiaNov 13FRI

L0-4CyprusOct 12WOR

L0-10AustriaOct 9WOR

L1-3MaltaSep 9FRI

L0-6Bosnia & HerzegovinaSep 6WOR

L0-4AustriaJun 10WOR

L0-1Bosnia & HerzegovinaJun 7WOR

L1-5RomaniaMar 24WOR

L0-2CyprusMar 21WOR

W3-1LiechtensteinNov 18UEF

Finland

L1-2HungaryJun 5FRI

L0-4GermanyMay 31FRI

W2-0New ZealandMar 27FIF

W4-0AndorraNov 17FRI

L0-1MaltaNov 14WOR

L0-4NetherlandsOct 12WOR

W2-1LithuaniaOct 9WOR

L1-3PolandSep 7WOR

L0-1NorwaySep 4FRI

W2-1PolandJun 10WOR

L0-2NetherlandsJun 7WOR

D2-2LithuaniaMar 24WOR

W1-0MaltaMar 21WOR

L0-2GreeceNov 17UEF

L0-1Rep. Of IrelandNov 14UEF

Squad & Injuries

San Marino

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper5

Finland

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Finland

Draw or Finland

Draw or Finland

Finland

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 6 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Markets to Avoid

San Marino

San Marino

Finland

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

San Marino

Finland

Squad & Injuries

San Marino

Finland