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Predictions graded

Ross County14Heart of Midlothian B0

HT 6–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–192%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Top-of-League-One Ross County host a Hearts B side that has won three of four ties in this cup, so the gap in level is real but not decisive.

Ross County are the likely winners and the goals lean over 2.5, but the reviewed prices for both, 1.13 and 1.25, ask for more than the evidence gives. The one worthwhile price is 3.25 for the first half to finish level.

Context

This is the cross-division competition in which senior SPFL clubs are drawn against academy B sides, and both teams have treated it as winnable: County scored five at Clachnacuddin on 22 September and Hearts B scored five at Kelty the same night. The caution against reading County's League One position into this tie is specific, because their only defeat of the season before the League Cup exit came in this competition, a narrow home loss to Aberdeen B on 8 September. With both squads scoring freely and neither run built on clean sheets, the tie reads as a test of level rather than a mismatch.
- Ross County beat Clachnacuddin 5-1 on 22 September in the KDM Evolution Trophy (official club reaction, 22 September).
- Hearts B won 5-3 at Kelty Hearts the same night, reaching nine points from four ties according to the official academy account (22 September).
- Hearts B are described as being on the verge of qualification in the competition after that win (Hearts Standard, 24 September).
- Ross County's only defeat of the season before their League Cup exit came in this competition, at home to Aberdeen B on 8 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Five different scorers, including a double for Richard Chin on his return from injury, indicate County's attacking work is not resting on one player. Their League One fixtures since have produced a late equaliser at East Fife and a 2-0 win at Cove Rangers, so the side has kept accumulating without repeating the landslide. The caution is that County's only defeat before their League Cup exit came in this competition, a narrow home loss to Aberdeen B, and Kettlewell said his side had 'shot themselves in the foot' in the 3-0 quarter-final defeat at Hibernian.
- Official post-match, 15 September: 'Ross County recorded their biggest winning margin in a league fixture since joining the SPFL with an 8-0 victory against Queen of the South'.
- Official full-time post lists the scorers as Chris Hamilton 2, Brian Graham 2, Kieran Phillips 2, Jamie Lindsay and Richard Chin.
- P&J Sport reported the win moved Ross County to the top of League One (15 September).
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Donkor's three goals came inside a single half and were the decisive burst in Hearts B's highest-scoring tie of the run to date. The goals have otherwise been shared around, with Gus Stevenson and Euan Glasgow also scoring at Kelty, so his return is the sharpest individual contribution in a campaign that has produced three wins from four. Every Hearts B tie so far has kicked off on a midweek evening, whereas this one is a Saturday afternoon trip to Dingwall, so the routine around the hat-trick will not be repeated here.
- Official academy post, 22 September: 'a rampant first-half saw a Donkor Hat-trick added to by Stevenson and Glasgow' in a 5-3 win at Kelty Hearts.
- Hearts Standard, 23 September: Donkor's first-half hat-trick took Hearts B 'a big step towards reaching the knockout stage'.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Forrester's minutes at Ross County have been concentrated in this competition rather than the league, which makes a cup tie the fixture where his involvement is most plausible. He is a Heart of Midlothian player, so Saturday's tie would put him opposite his parent club's academy side, an unusual club connection around an otherwise routine squad decision. Nothing published indicates whether the loan arrangement permits him to face Hearts B, and two recent league omissions mean a starting place should not be assumed.
- Hearts loan watch, 10 September: Forrester has played 357 minutes this season, 240 of them for Ross County in the Challenge Cup against Elgin, Aberdeen B and Banks O' Dee.
- The same review records one League 1 start against Airdrie from 117 league minutes, two recent league matchday-squad omissions, and his only assist in the 4-0 win over Banks O' Dee.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.17fair 1.27

BetBugs 79% · Market 85.5%

−6.5ppshort

Both teams' first-half goal rates are high enough that a goalless opening period is the less likely outcome.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

Both teams' home and away splits point to high-scoring games, and the two most recent cup ties for each side produced five goals or more.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ross County

1.13fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 88.5%

−20.5ppshort

A full-time League One side sitting top of the division hosts a reserve side that concedes close to three goals a game away from home.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.75fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 57.1%

−5.1ppshort

The home side's defence has blanked opponents regularly and the visitors have a weak away scoring record across the wider sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
A full-time League One side sitting top of the division hosts a reserve side that concedes close to three goals a game away from home.
- Ross County competitive record: 11 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats in 14 matches, 2.79 goals scored per game
- Ross County at home: 5 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats, 3.43 scored and 1.29 conceded per game
- Hearts B away: 3 wins, 0 draws, 6 defeats, 2.89 conceded per game
- Ross County beat Queen of the South 8-0 and won 2-0 at Cove Rangers in their last two league games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRoss CountyEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hearts B have conceded heavily before the break on their travels while County usually get on the front foot at home.
- Ross County home first-half goals: 1.14 scored, 1.00 conceded per match
- Hearts B away first-half goals: 0.33 scored, 1.78 conceded per match
- Ross County overall second-half scoring (1.86) outweighs their first-half output (0.93)
- Hearts B conceded three first-half goals at Spartans and three at Berwick
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRoss CountyEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
County's strongest phase is after the break, scoring heavily at home while conceding almost nothing in second halves there.
- Ross County home second-half goals: 2.29 scored, 0.29 conceded per match
- Hearts B away second-half goals: 1.22 scored, 1.11 conceded per match
- Ross County overall second-half average is 1.86 goals scored
- Ross County scored six second-half goals against Queen of the South
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonRoss CountyEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts B have conceded heavily before the break on their travels while County usually get on the front foot at home. Both sides' first-half scoring rates are modest, making a level opening period a realistic outcome.
- Ross County home first-half goals: 1.14 scored, 1.00 conceded per match
- Hearts B away first-half goals: 0.33 scored, 1.78 conceded per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRoss County or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to high-scoring games, and the two most recent cup ties for each side produced five goals or more.
- Ross County home matches average 4.71 total goals (3.43 for, 1.29 against)
- Rick Hearts B away matches average 4.44 total goals (1.56 for, 2.89 against)
- Ross County overall: 2.79 scored and 1.00 conceded per game in 14 matches
- Latest County league games produced 8-0 and 2-0 scorelines
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
The home side's defence has blanked opponents regularly and the visitors have a weak away scoring record across the wider sample.
- Ross County kept six clean sheets in 14 competitive matches
- Hearts B failed to score in 5 of their 9 away matches and kept none away
- Hearts B have one clean sheet in 15 tracked matches
- Ross County scored in 13 of 14 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
County have been scoring at well over three goals a game at home against a defence that concedes heavily on the road.
- Ross County home goals for: 3.43 per game across 7 home matches
- Ross County scored in 6 of 7 home matches
- They scored eight against Queen of the South and four against East Kilbride at home
- Hearts B conceded 2.89 goals per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRoss County over 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Across the wider away sample Hearts B rarely reach two goals, and they meet one of the stronger defences in the competition.
- Hearts B failed to score in 5 of 9 away matches
- Hearts B away average is 1.56 goals per game across 9 matches
- Ross County kept six clean sheets in 14 competitive matches
- Ross County conceded only 0.29 goals per second half at home
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHeart of Midlothian B under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts B have shown in this competition that they can score against senior opposition, and County have conceded in most of their home games.
- Ross County conceded in 4 of 7 home matches
- Hearts B scored in 4 of 9 away matches
- Hearts B scored six at Gala Fairydean and five at Kelty Hearts in the last two rounds
- Ross County conceded three at home to Hibernian and four at home to Aberdeen U21
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHeart of Midlothian B to scoreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both the away defence's record and County's home scoring make a Hearts B clean sheet very unlikely.
- Hearts B: one clean sheet in 15 matches, none in 9 away matches
- Ross County scored in 13 of 14 competitive matches
- Ross County home goals for: 3.43 per game
- Hearts B away goals against: 2.89 per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRoss County to scoreEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Both teams' first-half goal rates are high enough that a goalless opening period is the less likely outcome.
- Ross County home first halves average 2.14 total goals
- Hearts B away first halves average 2.11 total goals
- Five of Ross County's last six matches had at least one first-half goal
- Hearts B's last two Trophy ties produced first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts B rarely score early on their travels, so a first half with goals for both teams is the less likely outcome.
- Ross County home first-half goals against: 1.00 per match
- Hearts B away first-half goals for: 0.33 per match
- No Ross County home match in the split featured first-half goals for both sides
- Hearts B were behind 0-3 at half time in two away matches this season
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides produce most of their goals after the break, which points to at least two second-half goals.
- Ross County home second halves average 2.58 total goals (2.29 for, 0.29 against)
- Hearts B away second halves average 2.33 total goals (1.22 for, 1.11 against)
- Ross County scored six second-half goals against Queen of the South
- Hearts B scored five second-half goals at Gala Fairydean
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance70%

Recent Form

Ross County

W2-0Cove RangersSep 19LEA

W8-0Queen of the SouthSep 15LEA

L0-3HibernianSep 12LEA

L3-4Aberdeen U21Sep 8CHA

D2-2East FifeSep 5LEA

W4-0East KilbrideAug 29LEA

W4-0Banks O' DeeAug 25CHA

W3-1Airdrie UnitedAug 22LEA

W2-1DunfermlineAug 15LEA

W2-1Elgin CityAug 11CHA

W2-1MontroseAug 8LEA

W1-0PeterheadAug 1LEA

W3-0Airdrie UnitedJul 25LEA

W3-1ClydeJul 18LEA

D2-2Nairn CountyJul 14FRI

Heart of Midlothian B

W6-1Gala Fairydean RoversSep 8CHA

L0-5SpartansAug 25CHA

W4-3Berwick RangersAug 11CHA

L0-3CowdenbeathApr 18FOO

W3-0Albion RoversApr 10FOO

L2-4East StirlingshireApr 3FOO

L0-8ClydebankMar 20FOO

L0-4Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticMar 14FOO

D1-1Gretna 2008Mar 6FOO

L0-3Cumbernauld ColtsFeb 27FOO

L0-1Broxburn AthleticFeb 20FOO

W2-1Bo'ness UnitedFeb 13FOO

W2-1Linlithgow RoseFeb 7FOO

L0-2Tranent JuniorsJan 24FOO

W2-1Stirling UniversityJan 2FOO

Squad & Injuries

Ross County

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Heart of Midlothian B

35 available

Attackers4

Midfielders18

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Ross County

No

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals8 of 9 landed

Recent Form

Ross County

Heart of Midlothian B

Squad & Injuries

Ross County

Heart of Midlothian B