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Predictions graded

Montserrat3British Virgin Islands0

HT 0–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–759%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 20–5On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 22:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Montserrat concede two goals a game at home, and the British Virgin Islands have won 6-0 and 4-0 in competitive matches since November, so the visitors look the more likely winners despite a six-month competitive layoff.

Of the reviewed prices, the British Virgin Islands to win at 6, over 2.5 goals at 2.75 and at least one first-half goal at 2.63 offer something; Montserrat at 1.53 and both teams to score — No at 1.33 do not.

Context

It is the strongest single result in their recent record and it came with a clean sheet, but the short gap to this match is a workload factor the other side does not carry. It also followed four defeats in their previous five competitive matches, so one good night has not settled their form.
- 23 September 2026, away: Turks and Caicos Islands 0-2 Montserrat, half-time 0-1.
- Montserrat 14 shots to 2 and 4 shots on target to 0 in that match.
A draw is the one result this three-year run has never produced, so a share of the points is the least familiar outcome in Montserrat's recent history, though 15 matches against a changing set of opponents make that a weak trend to lean on. The deeper point is where the goals go: they failed to score in six of those 15 matches and concede almost two a game.
- 15 competitive matches, 13 October 2023 to 23 September 2026: 5 wins, 0 draws, 10 defeats.
- 0.93 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game.
- Scored in 9 of 15 matches; 3 clean sheets.
It is the last competitive match in their record, roughly six months before this fixture, which leaves their current level an open question. The 6-0 win at Bahamas on 15 November 2025 sits in the same window and points the same way, but both results came in the CONCACAF Series rather than the Nations League.
- 29 March 2026, home: British Virgin Islands 4-0 Anguilla, half-time 3-0.
- Latest competitive match date in the British Virgin Islands record.
It is the only meeting between the two in the tracked archive and it was played fourteen years before this fixture, so it says more about the depth of the record than about either current squad. Montserrat running up a scoreline against this opponent has not been tested since, and their more recent competitive matches have been low-scoring.
- 9 September 2012, Caribbean Cup: British Virgin Islands 0-7 Montserrat, Montserrat winning away.
- Only one head-to-head meeting appears in the supplied record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 6.00
The read
BVI's stronger recent scoring and Montserrat's leaky defense make BVI slight favourites.
- BVI overall score 1.56 goals per game and concede 1.33.
- Montserrat concede 1.93 goals per game overall and 2.00 at home.
- BVI recent six matches: 13 goals scored, including 6-0 and 4-0 wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBritish Virgin IslandsEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves in these teams' matches often feature one goal, making a draw at the break plausible.
- Montserrat first-half total goals average 1.33.
- BVI first-half total goals average 1.67.
- Montserrat's last 6 first halves all had 1 or 2 total goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montserrat's home advantage and BVI's away inconsistency give them a chance, though their poor defense is a concern. BVI's stronger recent scoring and Montserrat's leaky defense make BVI slight favourites.
- Montserrat home record 3W-0D-5L in 8 matches, scoring 1.25 and conceding 2.00 per game.
- Montserrat overall 5W-0D-10L in 15 matches, with no draws.
- BVI overall score 1.56 goals per game and concede 1.33.
- Montserrat concede 1.93 goals per game overall and 2.00 at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMontserrat or British Virgin IslandsEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in these teams' matches often feature one goal, making a draw at the break plausible. BVI have a slightly better first-half scoring record and Montserrat often concede early.
- Montserrat first-half total goals average 1.33.
- BVI first-half total goals average 1.67.
- BVI first-half goals for average: 0.78.
- Montserrat first-half goals against average: 0.87.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or British Virgin IslandsEstimated chance75%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Both teams' overall matches average near three goals, and BVI's recent games have been high-scoring.
- Montserrat overall average total goals per match: 2.87 (0.93 for, 1.93 against).
- BVI overall average total goals per match: 2.89 (1.56 for, 1.33 against).
- BVI recent six matches averaged 3.17 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both teams scoring has been uncommon for these sides, with Montserrat's attack particularly blunt.
- Montserrat both teams scored in 6 of 15 matches (40%).
- BVI both teams scored in 3 of 9 matches (33%).
- Montserrat recent six: both scored in 1 match; BVI recent six: both scored in 2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montserrat rarely score more than one goal, especially against a BVI side that concedes moderately.
- Montserrat average 0.93 goals per game overall and 1.25 at home.
- Montserrat scored more than once in only 1 of their last 6 matches.
- BVI concede 1.33 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMontserrat under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montserrat's poor home defense and BVI's scoring ability make a clean sheet unlikely.
- Montserrat kept clean sheets in 3 of 15 matches (20%).
- BVI scored in 5 of 9 competitive matches (56%).
- Montserrat concede 2.00 goals per game at home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBritish Virgin Islands to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
BVI rarely keep clean sheets and Montserrat have scored in the majority of their matches.
- BVI kept clean sheets in 2 of 9 matches (22%).
- Montserrat scored in 9 of 15 matches (60%).
- BVI concede 1.33 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMontserrat to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Montserrat winning without conceding is a narrow outcome given BVI's scoring record.
- Montserrat have 5 wins and 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Montserrat recent six: 2 wins to nil.
- BVI scored in 5 of 9 matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
BVI winning to nil is unlikely because Montserrat usually score at least once.
- BVI have 3 wins and 2 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- BVI recent six: 2 wins to nil.
- Montserrat scored in 9 of 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.63
The read
Every recent match for both teams has produced a first-half goal.
- All 6 of Montserrat's recent matches had at least one first-half goal.
- All 6 of BVI's recent matches had at least one first-half goal.
- Montserrat first-half total average 1.33; BVI 1.67.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals for both teams have been very rare in these sides' recent matches.
- Montserrat both scored in first half in 0 of last 6 matches.
- BVI both scored in first half in 1 of last 6 matches.
- Montserrat first-half goals for average 0.47; BVI first-half goals against 0.89.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half totals have generally been below 1.5 in recent matches.
- Montserrat second-half total goals average 1.53.
- BVI second-half total goals average 1.22.
- Montserrat recent second halves averaged 0.67 total goals; BVI 1.17.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' overall matches average well above 5.5 corners.
- Montserrat overall corners per match: 3.47 for, 4.93 against (total 8.40).
- BVI overall corners per match: 1.60 for, 7.20 against (total 8.80).
- Montserrat's last 6 matches averaged 7.5 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 5.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around 20 total shots, comfortably above the line.
- Montserrat overall shots per match: 7.87 for, 13.87 against (total 21.73).
- BVI overall shots per match: 5.20 for, 15.00 against (total 20.20).
- All of Montserrat's last 6 matches had over 13.5 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 13.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' overall matches average above 4.5 shots on target.
- Montserrat overall shots on target per match: 2.93 for, 4.87 against (total 7.80).
- BVI overall shots on target per match: 1.40 for, 4.80 against (total 6.20).
- Montserrat's last 6 matches: 4 of 6 had over 4.5 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-7British Virgin IslandsvMontserratSep 9, 2012CAR

7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Montserrat

W2-0Turks and Caicos IslandsSep 23CON

L0-3GuyanaJun 11WOR

W1-0BelizeJun 4WOR

L0-1El SalvadorNov 18CON

L1-2St. Vincent / GrenadinesNov 14CON

L0-1BonaireOct 13CON

W1-0BonaireOct 10CON

L0-2St. Vincent / GrenadinesSep 8CON

L1-4El SalvadorSep 5CON

L1-3PanamaJun 10WOR

L1-4NicaraguaJun 6WOR

W4-2BarbadosNov 20CON

W2-1Dominican RepublicNov 17CON

L0-3NicaraguaOct 17CON

L0-3NicaraguaOct 13CON

British Virgin Islands

W2-0BonaireJun 6FRI

L0-4GibraltarJun 3FRI

W4-0AnguillaMar 29CON

D1-1Cayman IslandsMar 27CON

W6-0BahamasNov 15CON

W2-1Cayman IslandsNov 13CON

L1-4GrenadaOct 8FRI

L0-1JamaicaJun 7WOR

L0-3DominicaJun 4WOR

D1-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesMay 30FRI

L0-1AnguillaApr 20FRI

D0-0AnguillaApr 17FRI

L0-1Cayman IslandsOct 12CON

L1-3St. Kitts and NevisOct 9CON

L0-2St. Kitts and NevisSep 10CON

Squad & Injuries

Montserrat

19 available

Attackers3

Midfielders9

Defenders4

Goalkeeper3

British Virgin Islands

17 available

Attackers6

Midfielders2

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

British Virgin Islands

Over 2.5

No

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 10 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Montserrat

British Virgin Islands

Squad & Injuries

Montserrat

British Virgin Islands