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FraserburghStirling Albion

Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:0026 Sept, 14:00

13Probabilities2Priced3Edges87%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 11:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Fraserburgh have lost 0-5 and 0-7 in their two Challenge Cup ties this season, so the question is whether one home defeat in seven matches can hold against a League Two side.

Stirling Albion are the likelier winners, though that read carries little confidence. Under 2.5 goals at 3.2 and not both teams scoring before half-time at 1.3 offer something; Over 2.5 at 1.3 and Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.18 do not.

Context

Fraserburgh have conceded heavily in both Challenge Cup ties this season while Stirling Albion concede 2.86 per away game and have no away clean sheet. No injury, availability or venue information was supplied, so the assessment rests on these records alone.

This was Fraserburgh's most recent match and the clearest single piece of evidence about their cup form this season. It sits against a home record of two wins, four draws and one defeat in seven matches, so the picture is mixed rather than one-sided. One heavy defeat is a small sample and does not by itself say how this tie will be played.
- 22 September 2026: Fraserburgh 0-5 Cove Rangers, Challenge Cup, at home.
- Half-time score 0-2; Fraserburgh conceded three more in the second half.
That away record is the counterweight to Stirling's division advantage, because Fraserburgh have scored in five of their seven home matches. The 2.86 goals conceded per away game is the figure most relevant here, taken from seven matches between 18 July and 12 September 2026. Seven games is a modest sample, so it describes this season's away form rather than a fixed rate.
- Seven away matches, 18 July to 12 September 2026: 2 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses.
- Away goals: 1.57 scored and 2.86 conceded per game, with no clean sheet.
- Stirling Albion scored in four of those seven away matches.
Only one home defeat in seven is a useful counterweight to the cup defeats, and three of those seven home matches ended with a Fraserburgh clean sheet. The scoring side is thinner: one goal per home game, and five of the seven matches in which they found the net. The sample runs from 25 July to 22 September 2026 and includes the 0-5 cup loss to Cove Rangers.
- Seven home matches, 25 July to 22 September 2026: 2 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss.
- Home goals: 1.0 scored and 1.29 conceded per match, with three clean sheets.
- Fraserburgh scored in five of those seven home matches.
Seven goals conceded on the road is the standout figure here, and five of them came before half-time. They scored three after the break, so the match stayed open to the end, which is relevant to a tie where both defences have been generous. It is a single match, so it illustrates a risk rather than establishing a pattern.
- 12 September 2026: Edinburgh City 7-3 Stirling Albion, League Two, away.
- Half-time: 5-0 to Edinburgh City; second half 3-2 to Stirling Albion.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 84.7%

−2.7ppshort

Both teams concede early goals often enough that a goalless first half is unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 74%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The visitors come from a higher division and can score on the road, while Fraserburgh have been heavily beaten in both cup ties.
- Stirling Albion play one division above Fraserburgh (League Two vs Highland League).
- Stirling's away record is 2W 0D 5L, scoring 1.57 and conceding 2.86 per away game.
- Fraserburgh lost 0-5 at home to Cove Rangers and 0-7 at Elgin City in this season's Challenge Cup.
- Fraserburgh's home record is 2W 4D 1L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerStirling AlbionEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score few first-half goals themselves, and Stirling's away first halves have been especially quiet.
- Fraserburgh average 0.29 first-half goals for and 0.71 against at home.
- Stirling Albion average 0.14 first-half goals for and 1.86 against away.
- Fraserburgh overall first-half record: 0.8 for, 0.93 against per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring between these teams has been close to even, making a level second period plausible.
- Fraserburgh average 0.71 second-half goals for and 0.57 against at home.
- Stirling Albion average 1.43 second-half goals for and 1.0 against away.
- Fraserburgh overall second-half record: 0.87 for, 0.73 against.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors come from a higher division and can score on the road, while Fraserburgh have been heavily beaten in both cup ties. Fraserburgh are hard to beat at home and face an away side that concedes almost three goals a game on the road.
- Stirling Albion play one division above Fraserburgh (League Two vs Highland League).
- Stirling's away record is 2W 0D 5L, scoring 1.57 and conceding 2.86 per away game.
- Fraserburgh's home record is 2W 4D 1L, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.29 per home game.
- Stirling Albion concede 2.86 goals per away game and lost five of seven away.
BetBugs · Double ChanceFraserburgh or Stirling AlbionEstimated chance74%

Goals9 outcomes · top 87%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences have been generous, and Stirling's away matches in particular have produced goals at a high rate.
- Stirling Albion away games average 4.43 total goals (1.57 for, 2.86 against).
- Fraserburgh have conceded 20 goals in their last six matches.
- Fraserburgh home games average 2.29 total goals.
- Stirling Albion's 15 matches average 3.73 goals combined.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have scored regularly enough and Stirling concede on the road in every game, while Fraserburgh score in most home fixtures.
- Fraserburgh scored in 5 of 7 home matches.
- Stirling Albion scored in 4 of 7 away matches and conceded in all 7 away.
- Stirling Albion have kept no away clean sheet and only one clean sheet in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fraserburgh's home goal output has been modest, and they were shut out in their most recent cup appearance.
- Fraserburgh average 1.0 goal per home match.
- Fraserburgh scored 5 goals across 7 home matches.
- Fraserburgh failed to score in both Challenge Cup ties.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalFraserburgh under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stirling have been held scoreless in more than a third of their away games and often manage only one goal.
- Stirling Albion average 1.57 goals per away game.
- Stirling Albion scored in only 4 of 7 away matches.
- Stirling Albion failed to score in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalStirling Albion under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fraserburgh's recent defensive record has been poor and Stirling score often enough on the road to break through.
- Fraserburgh have no clean sheet in their last six matches.
- Stirling Albion scored 1.57 per away game.
- Stirling Albion scored in 4 of 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreStirling Albion to scoreEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stirling concede in every away fixture, and Fraserburgh find the net in most home games.
- Stirling Albion conceded in all 7 away matches this season.
- Stirling Albion have one clean sheet in 15 matches.
- Fraserburgh scored in 5 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreFraserburgh to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams concede early goals often enough that a goalless first half is unlikely.
- Fraserburgh's last six matches produced first-half goals in five of them.
- Fraserburgh concede 0.71 first-half goals per home game; Stirling Albion concede 1.86 per away game.
- Stirling Albion's 15 matches average 1.93 first-half goals combined.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.18Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
With both sides averaging well under one first-half goal, the chance of each scoring before the break is small.
- Fraserburgh average 0.29 first-half goals per home match.
- Stirling Albion average 0.14 first-half goals per away match.
- Fraserburgh overall first-half average: 0.8 for, 0.93 against.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.30Estimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stirling's away matches produce plenty of second-half goals, and Fraserburgh contribute enough at home to push the total up.
- Stirling Albion's away second halves average 2.43 goals in total.
- Fraserburgh's home second halves average 1.29 goals in total.
- Stirling Albion average 1.43 second-half goals away; Fraserburgh 0.71 at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Recent Form

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Squad & Injuries

Fraserburgh

31 available

Attackers3

Midfielders13

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Stirling Albion

33 available

Attackers8

Midfielders14

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3