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Predictions graded

Bristol Rovers1Exeter City0

HT 0–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 17–8On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 01:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Bristol Rovers are chasing a club-record 11th straight home league win against an Exeter side that has lost all three league games away and gone three league games without scoring.

The home win is the likeliest result, but at 1.73 it asks for more than the fixture's head-to-head history and Rovers' two straight league defeats justify. Both teams to score: No at 1.95 is the one quoted price the evidence backs.

Context

Rovers' own post puts the side on a 10-match winning run in home league games and states that an 11th would set a new club record, with the Thatchers Terrace close to selling out for Exeter's visit. Evans has framed the fixture the same way, calling the chance to make history 'fantastic for all of us'. That is why the game is being built up as a landmark home occasion rather than a routine League Two fixture, and it is the clearest signal of how the home side will approach it.
- Bristol Rovers posted that the team is on a 10-game winning streak in the league at home and is looking to make it 11 and set a new club record.
- The club added that the Thatchers Terrace is close to selling out for the visit of Exeter City.
- Steve Evans said the opportunity to make history is 'fantastic for all of us'.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 01:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Leigh's ban was reported as three matches after his 12 September red card at Grimsby, and he was already missing for the Gillingham game that followed, so Saturday falls inside the suspension. He had started the season as Rovers' most productive attacking midfielder, with Evans publicly praising his impact and Jack Aitchison coming in for him at Gillingham. The practical effect is that Rovers' central creativity is being patched rather than chosen. The three-match figure comes from local reporting rather than a club statement, so the exact end point of the ban is worth re-checking.
- Bristol Rovers Live reported that Tommy Leigh will be suspended for three games after his red card against Grimsby Town.
- Leigh was unavailable for the following league game at Gillingham, where Ciaran Kelly and Jack Aitchison came into the starting XI.
- Bristol Rovers' own account confirmed Leigh was shown a red card in the 75th minute at Grimsby on 12 September.
- T. Leigh started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 01:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Exeter played a full 90 minutes plus a penalty shootout at Cheltenham on Tuesday, while Rovers' last match was the Gillingham defeat the previous Saturday. Cup ties are routinely rotated, so the extra load may sit with squad players rather than the team Matt Taylor names at The Mem, and Exeter have already exited the competition. Even so it is the clearest difference in how the two squads have prepared, and Exeter's Lakyle Samuel said afterwards that the second-half performance there should put them 'in good stead' for Saturday.
- Cheltenham Town drew 2-2 with Exeter City in the EFL Trophy on 22 September and won the shootout 4-3.
- DevonLive reported that Exeter City were beaten on penalties by Cheltenham Town in the Trophy tie.
- Bristol Rovers' most recent fixture before this game was the 3-0 league defeat at Gillingham on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 01:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Evans is the current Bristol Rovers manager and was reported to be a leading target for Hibernian's vacancy after David Gray's departure, with one report saying Hibs were ready to request permission to talk to him. A follow-up report said no approach had been made, and Evans stated his commitment to the club after the Gillingham defeat. The fixture-relevant question is whether that uncertainty has unsettled a squad that has just lost back-to-back league games, but the balance of the reporting is that he is staying, so this is background rather than a change to selection or approach.
- Pete O'Rourke reported that Hibernian were ready to ask Bristol Rovers for permission to speak to Steve Evans over their vacant manager's role.
- The Edinburgh Evening News reported, shared by Joshua Hemmings, that Hibernian had not approached Bristol Rovers.
- Evans said: 'My commitment is to this football club.'
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 01:04 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Rovers have scored in four of five home matches and conceded in only two, while Exeter have produced two goals across five away games.
- League home record 3-0-0: 8 goals scored, 3 conceded
- Home split this window: 4 wins from 5, 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded per game
- Exeter away split: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats, 0.4 goals per game
- Exeter have 1 goal in 3 league away games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBristol RoversEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Rovers start home games on the front foot while Exeter have managed one first-half goal in five away matches.
- Rovers average 1.0 first-half goals and 0.4 conceded in home matches
- Exeter average 0.2 first-half goals in away matches
- Rovers scored in the first half of each of their last three home matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBristol RoversEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rovers are much stronger after the break at home while Exeter concede most of their away goals in the second half.
- Rovers average 1.4 second-half goals and 0.4 conceded in home matches
- Exeter's away split second-half goals against: 1.0 per game
- Exeter scored 0.2 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBristol RoversEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rovers have scored in four of five home matches and conceded in only two, while Exeter have produced two goals across five away games. Exeter's low-scoring, compact matches give them a plausible route to a point even without an away win.
- League home record 3-0-0: 8 goals scored, 3 conceded
- Home split this window: 4 wins from 5, 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded per game
- Exeter have drawn 3 of 7 league games, scoring 4 and conceding 5
- Exeter average 0.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBristol Rovers or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rovers start home games on the front foot while Exeter have managed one first-half goal in five away matches. Exeter start slowly on the road and Rovers rarely lead by more than a goal at the break, leaving a level first half likely.
- Rovers average 1.0 first-half goals and 0.4 conceded in home matches
- Exeter average 0.2 first-half goals in away matches
- Exeter's away first halves: 0.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game
- Rovers' home first halves: 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBristol Rovers or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Exeter barely score and Rovers have conceded in only two of five home matches, pointing to a low total.
- Exeter's 11 competitive matches average 0.73 scored and 0.91 conceded
- Exeter's last three league games: 0-0, 0-1, 1-1
- Rovers kept 4 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches, 3 of them at home
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Exeter's away attack has produced very little and Rovers have kept clean sheets in most home matches.
- Exeter have scored in 2 of 5 away matches, two goals in total
- Exeter failed to score in 5 of 11 competitive matches
- Rovers kept 3 clean sheets in 5 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Exeter's away scoring has been thin and Rovers have shut opponents out in most home games.
- Exeter scored in only 2 of 5 away matches, with 2 goals scored
- Rovers kept 3 clean sheets in 5 home matches
- Exeter failed to score in 5 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonExeter City not to scoreEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rovers do concede at home in some games, so a home win is not always accompanied by a clean sheet.
- Rovers won 4 of 5 home matches but only 3 came with a clean sheet
- Rovers conceded 3 at home to Newport
- Exeter scored twice at Cheltenham in midweek
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Exeter have scored twice in five away matches and face a home side conceding under a goal a game at The Mem.
- Exeter's away split: 0.4 goals scored per game across 5 matches
- Exeter have 1 goal in 3 league away games
- Rovers' home split: 0.8 goals conceded per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonExeter City under 1.5Estimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both sides' first-half numbers point to at least one goal before the break at The Mem.
- Rovers average 1.0 first-half goals and 0.4 conceded per home match
- Exeter average 0.2 first-half goals and 0.4 conceded per away match
- A first-half goal was scored in five of Rovers' last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Exeter's first-half away output is minimal and Rovers rarely concede early at home.
- Exeter average 0.2 first-half goals in away matches
- Rovers' first-half clean sheets at home are common (0.4 conceded per game)
- Exeter's overall first-half goals average 0.36
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Exeter barely score after the break on the road, limiting the second-half total.
- Exeter average 0.2 second-half goals and concede 1.0 per away game
- Rovers average 0.4 second-half goals conceded at home
- Exeter's last three league games produced a combined two second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Exeter generate few corners away and Rovers' home totals sit just below the line.
- Rovers' home matches average 9.2 corners combined
- Exeter's away matches average 9.4 corners combined
- Exeter take only 3.2 corners per away game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Exeter's very low shot output away from home keeps the combined total near the line.
- Rovers' home matches average 27.6 shots combined
- Exeter's away matches average 24.6 shots combined
- Exeter have taken only 8 shots per away game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 26.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L1-2Bristol RoversvExeter CityApr 12, 2025LEA

L3-1Exeter CityvBristol RoversDec 26, 2024LEA

L2-3Bristol RoversvExeter CityOct 29, 2024EFL

W0-1Exeter CityvBristol RoversFeb 3, 2024LEA

L0-1Bristol RoversvExeter CityJan 23, 2024LEA

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Bristol Rovers Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)	7	4	0	3	12-11	12	LLWWW
20	Exeter City	7	1	3	3	4-5	6	DLDDL

6pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Bristol Rovers

L0-3GillinghamSep 19LEA

L0-2GrimsbySep 12LEA

W1-0RotherhamSep 5LEA

W2-0ColchesterSep 1LEA

W2-0Crawley TownAug 29LEA

W5-3Newport CountyAug 22LEA

L2-3YorkAug 15LEA

L0-1PeterboroughAug 8LEA

D2-2Forest GreenJul 21FRI

D1-1PortsmouthJul 18FRI

L1-2LeicesterJul 14FRI

W3-2SalisburyJul 11FRI

W3-0Weston-super-MareJul 7FRI

D1-1Notts CountyMay 2LEA

W4-0CheltenhamApr 25LEA

Exeter City

D0-0TranmereSep 19LEA

L0-1Port ValeSep 12LEA

W2-0Tottenham Hotspur U21Sep 8EFL

D0-0WalsallSep 5LEA

D1-1BarnetSep 1LEA

L1-2YorkAug 29LEA

W2-0Accrington STAug 22LEA

L0-1GrimsbyAug 15LEA

L0-2PlymouthAug 10LEA

D1-1Bristol CityAug 1FRI

L1-2TorquayJul 31FRI

W2-0Weston-super-MareJul 25FRI

L0-1Truro CityJul 18FRI

L1-2BradfordMay 2LEA

D1-1Burton AlbionApr 25LEA

Squad & Injuries

Bristol Rovers

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Exeter City

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

No

Under 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bristol Rovers

Exeter City

Squad & Injuries

Bristol Rovers

Exeter City