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Predictions graded

Bonnyrigg Rose3Motherwell B0

HT 2–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Bonnyrigg Rose, playing a third match in eight days and four days after a 1-6 home defeat by Airdrieonians, host a Motherwell B side without a point in the league phase and 22 goals conceded across their last six.

Bonnyrigg should win, and 1.4 for a home victory is the one reviewed price that holds up; the goals, both-teams-to-score and first-half quotes ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Bonnyrigg's own preview calls Saturday's tie their final home league-stage game, kick-off 3pm at New Dundas Park with season tickets not valid, and another round of league-phase ties still follows. It matters because the league phase has already split their home results sharply by opponent level: a 1-0 win over League 2 Annan Athletic and a 2-1 win over Rangers B, then a 1-6 defeat to League 1 Airdrieonians. The counterweight is that the league phase runs alongside the Lowland League season, so it is not the club's primary weekly business and the crowd and intensity differ from league duty.
- Bonnyrigg Rose's 23 September preview lists Motherwell B at New Dundas Park on Saturday 26 September, 3pm kick-off, in the KDM Evolution Trophy, with season tickets not valid for the fixture.
- The club describes the tie as its "final home league stage game in the competition".
- The club confirmed on 24 September that the tie would be streamed worldwide on RoseTV for £10.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:35 · Europe/Bucharest
Airdrieonians' Divine Iserhienrhien and Gavin Gallagher each scored twice in the 1-6 win on 22 September, a fourth straight victory for the visitors and Bonnyrigg's heaviest home scoreline of the season. Three days earlier Bonnyrigg had won 6-1 at home to University of Stirling while conceding once, so the same squad shipped six when the opponent stepped up a level. Bonnyrigg's own note pointedly describes Airdrie as "the League 1 side", and Motherwell B are a Premiership academy team rather than senior League 1 opposition, so the scoreline is not a direct read on this fixture.
- Airdrieonians' 22 September full-time post read: "Bonnyrigg Rose 1-6 Airdrieonians. A comprehensive KDM victory for the Diamonds."
- Divine Iserhienrhien and Gavin Gallagher scored two apiece as Airdrie made it four wins on the bounce.
- Bonnyrigg's own full-time post from New Dundas Park read: "it's the League 1 side who take all 3 points".
- Bonnyrigg had won 6-1 at home to University of Stirling in the Lowland League on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:35 · Europe/Bucharest
East Fife's account put Ross on a hat-trick in a 4-1 win over Motherwell B on 15 September, three days after a 4-0 defeat at Annan Athletic that Motherwell's club account summarised in a single line. Across four league-phase ties the academy side have lost to Kelty Hearts, Alloa Athletic, Annan and East Fife while conceding at least three goals each time. That matters because Bonnyrigg have already beaten League 2 Annan Athletic and Rangers B at home in this competition. It remains a soft guide: B-team line-ups are drawn from the academy and change week to week, and no squad news is published for these ties.
- East Fife reported a 4-1 win over Motherwell B on 15 September, with Ross scoring three and Healy one.
- After the Annan Athletic tie, Motherwell's own club account read: "Annan Athletic take the three points."
- Motherwell B's four league-phase ties have all ended in defeat, to Kelty Hearts, Alloa Athletic, Annan Athletic (0-4) and East Fife (1-4).
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:35 · Europe/Bucharest
Bonnyrigg's own channels have promoted a Lee Currie Testimonial for Sunday 27 September at Dalkeith Miners Club, marking "10 incredible years at Bonnyrigg Rose", and the club's match feed called him "our number 10" when he scored against Airdrieonians days earlier. It puts a ten-year club servant at the centre of the weekend this tie sits in, one day before the celebration. The testimonial itself has no bearing on selection or on Saturday's play, and Currie was withdrawn on 61 minutes with the score at 1-4 in his most recent outing.
- Bonnyrigg Rose advertised a "Lee Currie Testimonial" for Sunday 27th September 2026 at Dalkeith Miners Club, celebrating "10 incredible years at Bonnyrigg Rose".
- The club's match feed called him "our number 10" when he scored a free kick against Airdrieonians on 22 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:35 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 84.7%

−2.7ppshort

Both teams have scored regularly before half-time, making a goalless first half unlikely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 76.9%

−0.9ppshort

Motherwell B concede heavily and Bonnyrigg score freely at home, making a high-scoring game likely.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

−8.0ppshort

Motherwell B often do not score before the break, making a no more likely than yes.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bonnyrigg Rose

1.75fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 57.1%

−9.1ppshort

Bonnyrigg's first-half scoring and Motherwell B's early concessions point to a home lead at the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Bonnyrigg's scoring form and Motherwell B's heavy defensive losses point to a home win.
- Bonnyrigg overall: 8W-1D-5L, 2.14 goals per game.
- Motherwell B overall: 1W-1D-12L, conceding 2.93 per game.
- Motherwell B lost all four league-phase ties, conceding 3+ each.
- Bonnyrigg won 6-1 at home to Stirling University on 19 September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBonnyrigg RoseEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.75
The read
Bonnyrigg's first-half scoring and Motherwell B's early concessions point to a home lead at the break.
- Bonnyrigg average 1.14 first-half goals at home.
- Motherwell B average 1.64 first-half goals against away.
- Bonnyrigg led 3-0 at half-time against Stirling University.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBonnyrigg RoseEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's second-half scoring and Motherwell B's late concessions point to a home second-half win.
- Bonnyrigg average 1.14 second-half goals at home.
- Motherwell B average 1.64 second-half goals against away.
- Bonnyrigg won the second half 3-1 against Stirling University.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBonnyrigg RoseEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's scoring form and Motherwell B's heavy defensive losses point to a home win. Motherwell B's single away draw and Bonnyrigg's home defeats keep a share of the points possible.
- Bonnyrigg overall: 8W-1D-5L, 2.14 goals per game.
- Motherwell B overall: 1W-1D-12L, conceding 2.93 per game.
- Motherwell B away record: 0W-1D-11L.
- Bonnyrigg home record: 4W-0D-3L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBonnyrigg Rose or DrawEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's first-half scoring and Motherwell B's early concessions point to a home lead at the break. Both sides have shown first-half stalemates recently, so a level score at the break is plausible.
- Bonnyrigg average 1.14 first-half goals at home.
- Motherwell B average 1.64 first-half goals against away.
- Bonnyrigg's last six first halves include two 0-0 and two 1-1.
- Motherwell B's last six first halves include one 0-0 and one 1-1.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBonnyrigg Rose or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals6 of 10 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Motherwell B concede heavily and Bonnyrigg score freely at home, making a high-scoring game likely.
- Bonnyrigg's 14 competitive matches average 3.36 total goals.
- Motherwell B's away matches average 3.75 goals against.
- Motherwell B's last six all produced at least three goals.
- Bonnyrigg's last six produced five matches with three or more goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Bonnyrigg often concede at home, and Motherwell B have scored in half of their recent games.
- Bonnyrigg conceded in six of seven home matches.
- Motherwell B scored in three of their last six.
- Bonnyrigg kept one clean sheet in seven home games.
- Motherwell B average 0.5 goals away.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's home scoring and Motherwell B's defensive record make two goals for the hosts likely.
- Bonnyrigg average 2.29 home goals.
- Bonnyrigg scored two or more in two of their last three home matches.
- Motherwell B conceded 3+ in each of their last six.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBonnyrigg Rose over 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motherwell B's away scoring is very low, making two goals unlikely.
- Motherwell B average 0.5 away goals.
- Motherwell B scored more than one away goal only once in their last six.
- Motherwell B failed to score in three of their last six.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMotherwell B under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's home defence has conceded regularly, so a clean sheet is less likely.
- Bonnyrigg kept one clean sheet in seven home matches.
- Bonnyrigg conceded in six of seven home matches.
- Motherwell B scored in three of their last six.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostMotherwell B to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's consistent scoring makes it highly likely Motherwell B will concede.
- Motherwell B conceded in all six recent matches.
- Bonnyrigg scored in five of their last six.
- Bonnyrigg average 2.29 home goals.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBonnyrigg Rose to scoreEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's habit of conceding at home makes a win without a clean sheet more likely.
- Bonnyrigg conceded in six of seven home matches.
- Motherwell B scored in three of their last six.
- Bonnyrigg kept one clean sheet in seven home games.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams have scored regularly before half-time, making a goalless first half unlikely.
- Five of Bonnyrigg's last six first halves had at least one goal.
- Motherwell B's last six first halves produced goals in five.
- Bonnyrigg average 1.14 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Motherwell B often do not score before the break, making a no more likely than yes.
- Motherwell B failed to score before half-time in four of their last six.
- Bonnyrigg kept first-half clean sheets in four of their last six.
- Bonnyrigg average 1.14 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second halves have often produced multiple goals, making over 1.5 likely.
- Four of Bonnyrigg's last six second halves had two or more goals.
- Five of Motherwell B's last six second halves had two or more goals.
- Motherwell B conceded three second-half goals at East Fife.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance72%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.3 price requires 76.9%, above our 76.0% estimate.

Recent Form

Bonnyrigg Rose

W6-1Stirling UniversitySep 19FOO

W2-1Gala Fairydean RoversSep 16FOO

L0-2Civil Service StrollersSep 12FOO

L1-3East KilbrideSep 8CHA

L1-2Hill Of Beath HawthornAug 29FOO

W2-1Rangers U21Aug 25CHA

W2-0Berwick RangersAug 22FOO

W1-0Annan AthleticAug 11CHA

W4-1East StirlingshireAug 8FOO

L1-2BrechinAug 1FOO

W4-0Bo'ness UnitedJul 28FOO

W3-0Musselburgh AthleticJul 25FOO

D1-1Edinburgh CityJul 4FRI

L1-2Linlithgow RoseApr 18FOO

D2-2Broxburn AthleticApr 11FOO

Motherwell B

L1-4East FifeSep 15CHA

L0-4Annan AthleticSep 8CHA

L0-3Alloa AthleticAug 25CHA

L3-4Kelty HeartsAug 11CHA

L1-3Queen of the SouthNov 11CHA

L0-4StenhousemuirOct 11CHA

L0-3StranraerSep 23CHA

L0-4ClydeSep 6CHA

L1-3East KilbrideAug 26CHA

D0-0Hamilton AcademicalAug 13CHA

L1-2East KilbrideAug 9CHA

L0-3StranraerAug 10CHA

L0-4ClydeAug 13CHA

W1-0SpartansAug 7CHA

Squad & Injuries

Bonnyrigg Rose

18 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders1

Goalkeeper2

Motherwell B

4 available

Attackers1

Midfielders2

Defenders1

Goalkeeper0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Bonnyrigg Rose

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

No

Yes

Bonnyrigg Rose

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 10 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Recent Form

Bonnyrigg Rose

Motherwell B

Squad & Injuries

Bonnyrigg Rose

Motherwell B